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Wen | Kung Fu Fish

The previous word

Just after solving the problem of cutting off chip supply in the Netherlands, the European Union was in turmoil again. Within 48 hours, on one hand, German car companies jumped their feet in panic and shouted,"The chips are only enough to last two weeks, and if there is no supply, they will have to stop work." On the other hand, European Commission President Von der Leyen came in with a "nuclear option" and directly put 12 mainland China and Hong Kong companies on the sanctions blacklist, and said,"This is just the beginning."

What is even more confusing is that this sanctions are obviously the 19th round of measures against Russia, but how did they involve China companies? This wave of EU operations is like dancing on a tightrope. While trying to get rare earths from China, it is also attacking China companies hard. What are you thinking?

The sanctions network

On the 22nd local time, Denmark, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, suddenly announced that all member states had agreed to the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which not only banned the import of Russian liquefied natural gas, but also blocked 117 Russian "shadow fleet" ships., not even cryptocurrency platforms, this is the first time the EU has taken action against cryptocurrencies.

But nobody expected that the sanctions list actually hid 12 Chinese enterprises, some refiners, some trading, and were namelessly held on the "help Russia to avoid sanctions" hat, to know before the EU's sanctions on Russia most involved two Chinese financial institutions, this time directly doubled several times, and all are real enterprises, the impact on China-European economic trade is not generally large.

China companies here have not yet recovered from the confusion of sanctions, but the EU has begun to "change its face" again. A while ago, they just talked with China about rare earth control and said,"If China does not liberalize rare earth exports, EU companies will suffer heavy losses." Then they turned around and attacked China companies hard.

To know that the position of China's rare earth in the global industrial chain is not arbitrarily substitutable, the EU's new energy vehicles and semiconductor industries must rely on China's rare earth support, now it is better to stretch out for resources, while whipping out sanctions, is it not clearly "I want to run horses, and I want horses not to eat grass"?

Let's talk about the China companies that were sanctioned this time. The reason given by the EU is that they "have normal business dealings with Russia." However, who doesn't know that the EU itself has never stopped doing business with Russia?

German enterprises in Russia should also operate, the European Union countries to buy Russian oil and natural gas has not stopped, how to Chinese enterprises here, the normal trade has become "evading sanctions", this is too obvious, before the 18th round of sanctions, China opposed two European banks, so that their business in China is difficult, now the European Union dares to add, it is difficult to really think that China is a good bullying?

The EU's "third-front operations" can't bear it first

More interestingly, the EU itself has a bunch of problems not solved, Germany has long fallen into a technological recession, the factory start-up rate has gone down, even Volkswagen such giants are almost discontinued because of the supply of chips, France's worst international rating agency has directly lowered its credit rating, and the debt problem has to be squeezed.

It is logical that at this time the EU should focus on the economy, but it does not, while following the U.S. and Sino-U.S. tariff game, while stealing money in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and now release energy to China, this "three-line warfare" scenario is not afraid to crush itself.

There is also the "nuclear option" proposed by von der Leyen, which is the EU's "anti-coercion mechanism" that will take effect at the end of 2023. It sounds quite bluffing, saying that it can restrict foreign corporate investment and transactions, but in fact this thing is a "paper tiger".

When Trump imposed tariffs on Europe, the EU shouted to activate this mechanism, but in the end, it was not done, because once it was actually used, it would mean that China-EU economic and trade would be completely torn apart, and EU companies would only suffer greater losses. German car companies, French luxury goods industry, which one can leave the China market? If there is really a situation where both sides are injured, the EU may not be able to withstand it more than China.

Now the EU is not a piece of iron, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia initially opposed this round of sanctions, and the program was postponed for weeks, and finally Slovakia, or because the EU promised to meet its demands in the energy and automotive industries.

Slovakia Prime Minister Fizo has publicly said,"The EU should focus on improving economic competitiveness rather than imposing sanctions every day." Even its own people can't stand it. It's really hard to say how long the EU sanctions will last.

Moreover, the United States is simply "oil on the fire", the same day that the EU announced the sanctions, the United States also followed against Russia, sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, these two companies accounted for the total Russian crude oil exports of 50%. more dramatic is that Trump originally planned in Budapest to meet with Putin, the result suddenly cancelled, and said "now meeting is inappropriate", it can be seen that the United States is wanting to tie the EU to its chariot, let the EU bear the cost of fighting against Russia, and take the fishing interest.

Sanctions backlash

Despite the fact that Russia has not yet officially responded to this round of sanctions, but has previously spoken "will take appropriate measures", Russian President's press secretary Peskov directly criticized the EU "building new barriers", the Russian energy ministry also suggested that it may cut off the remaining supply of crude oil pipelines to Europe, if Russia does so, the EU's energy crisis must escalate, when not only the chemical and steel industry to reduce production, the people over the winter will be a problem.

The international community does not pay for this wave of EU operations, the UN Trade and Development Conference directly criticized "unilateral sanctions undermining the global supply chain", India, Brazil and these emerging economies have also made it clear that they will not follow the EU to impose restrictions on Russia, now the global economy would not recession, the EU is still engaged in "camp confrontation", will only make the global supply chain more chaotic, and in the end unfortunate is itself.

But the EU does not seem to see this clearly, and is still following the US blindly, while imposing sanctions on Chinese enterprises, while also hoping that China will release rare-earth exports, this "ideal open" idea, I am afraid it will be difficult to realize.

China has long said to oppose unilateral sanctions without the basis of international law, will take the necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, if the EU continues to be so tough, the next counter-measures will probably be more severe than before.

conclusion

Now this situation is like a complicated game of chess, the European Union in the hands of the cards were not many, still everywhere, the sanctions against Russia did not the expected effect, instead let themselves into the energy and economic crisis, the sanctions against China is more to move the stone and knock their feet, both lost the Chinese market, and disrupted the supply of rare earth, Von der Leyen said "12 Chinese enterprises are just beginning", but according to this situation, if the European Union is not in time to take care of, eventually may give their future to the sanctions.

After all, the current global economic pattern has long changed, the past of the European Union may be in the United States, but the future can not be separated from China.If you always hold the arrogance of the old era, follow the United States in confrontation, will only be thrown behind by the times, then see if the European Union can wake up in time, do not go on the wrong path and further.