Once the war broke out, it cannot be repaired.
On October 23, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro did a very symbolic thing in the capital Caracas-he raised his mobile phone in front of everyone and "sent a peace message" to the United States in English and Spanish.
"We want peace, not war." he said loudly.
But immediately afterwards, his tone suddenly turned hard, warning that if the United States dared to attack, millions of Venezuelan men and women would pick up their weapons and fight to the end!
On the same day, the Venezuelan military launched the "Independence 200" coastal defense exercise in many places along the coast, and the country entered a state of combat readiness.
Trump: The next step is land action!
On the other side of the Atlantic, Trump's statement at the White House press conference sent chills down the back of Latin America.
He said the U.S. government could soon expand its military strikes on Venezuela’s so-called “drug traffickers” and would begin to pursue them “on land.”
Asked whether he would seek congressional approval for a “land strike” against Venezuela, Trump’s answer was full of “Trump-style” arbitrariness: We might go to Congress to tell them about it, but I don’t think they will have any objections.
Does that sound familiar? Yes, that's how some wars started back then.
What is even more creepy is that although Trump denied the Wall Street Journal's report that US B-1B bombers flew into the airspace near Venezuela, the flight tracking data will not lie-that day, at least one US B-1B "Lancer" strategic bomber has approached the airspace only 80 kilometers away from Venezuela mainland!
U.S. Army “Dark Night Diving” has arrived.
If the deterrence of the bombers is still “clear”, then the emergence of another mysterious force really exposed Trump’s bottom line.
The U.S. Army's most mysterious special forces, the "Dark Night Diving", have recently rarely appeared in the Caribbean Sea.Their sign "Piggy" attacks helicopters and Black Hawk helicopters, exercising about 145 kilometers from the coast of Venezuela.
What does this force do?They are the card that successfully “cut off” bin Laden in the 2011 raid on Pakistan!Their motto is “death awaits in the dark”, specializing in night penetration and point clearance.
Put the knife used to kill bin Laden on the neck of a so-called "drug dealer"?
Former U.S. State Department adviser and Latin American expert Ellis directly predicted that the U.S. has more than 75 percent chance of being “armed” against Venezuela.
Why is Trump so “headed” on Venezuela?
Petroleum.
Venezuela sits on the world's largest proven oil reserves, exceeding 300 billion barrels. Once the United States can control this fat meat, what will it mean?
Get rich, make a fortune, and it can also be used as a credit endorsement to alleviate the huge debt of US $38 trillion in the United States. It can also reshape the global energy landscape and re-consolidate its absolute hegemony in the "backyard of the Americas".
This temptation is enough to make any American president jealous.
What's more, in Trump's view, the current Maduro regime is already "riddled with holes":
Economically, inflation once reached tens of thousands of times, making people miserable;
Military, the army is severely corrupt, combat power is questionable;
Political diplomacy, Venezuela has long been isolated, fighting it few countries oppose.
With such a seemingly crumbling regime, once the US military presses the border, will the military defect before the battle? Will the intelligence system be instantly paralyzed? These are all chips on Trump's gambling table.
Maduro’s Three Roads, All Roads?
Faced with an imminent invasion, what cards does Maduro have in his hands?
The first way: hard.
Venezuela has deployed more than 5,000 Russian-made "Needle-S" portable air defense missiles in key air defense positions across the country, and air defense systems such as "Beech" and "S-125" have also been deployed in actual combat. The KH-31 supersonic anti-ship missile carried by the Air Force's Su-30MK2 fighter also poses a substantial threat to US military ships.
But to put it bluntly, once the US military got serious, referring to the 1986 air strike on Libya, Gaddafi's palace was hit accurately. In modern warfare, there is no such thing as "equal confrontation". The capital's air defense system was destroyed, refineries were bombed, and power was paralyzed, which may be the quickest outcome.
The second way: ask for help.
Looking for other big countries will not be able to solve the thirst for the near future. Latin America can support it, but it will not conflict head-on with the United States over Venezuela.
The third step is to compromise.
This is perhaps the most "decent" ending. But the question is, if he retreats, can the United States stop? History tells us that the regime overthrown by the United States will never "deal with the aftermath". Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan... which one is not "more and more chaotic"?
The button of war is under Trump's fingertips
Looking back in history, a superpower never needs the perfect excuse for dealing with a regional power.
Now, Trump has an "excuse"-"cracking down on drug dealers";
The show of force was in place-B-1B and B-52H bombers took turns to visit the site;
Special forces are in place-"Night Stalkers" are sharpening their knives;
Opinion-building is over – domestic media has shaped Maduro as a “toxic umbrella.”
Timing, location and harmony seem to be on Trump's side.
For Maduro, this is undoubtedly his "darkest moment". He was like a night watchman standing on the eve of a rainstorm. He knew that thunder was approaching, but he could only grip the symbolic mobile phone in his hand and send a peace message that no one paid attention to.
In this world where power is truth, the "sovereignty" of small countries is often just a bargaining chip in the game between big countries.
Will this cloud of war approaching Venezuela eventually dissipate or turn into a hail of bullets? The decision no longer lies in Caracas, but in Washington.