On October 23, White House press secretary Levitt officially announced that Trump would embark on a several-day visit to Asia.
The schedule is full: Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, none of them are left behind.
The most remarkable is, The whole trip’s push-off is scheduled in South Korea – where the APEC Summit will be held.Trump plans to hold bilateral meetings with Chinese representatives on this multilateral occasion.
Puting the China-US meeting at the last stop, this arrangement is not arbitrary.
Political observers can see that, Trump wants to show his influence in international affairs to the domestic people through the stage of multilateral diplomacy.
After all, being able to sit down and talk with China on such an important occasion as APEC is a kind of political capital in itself.
Trump put Fentanyl issue first on the agenda.There are deep political considerations behind this arrangement.
The Fentanyl crisis is indeed a big problem in the United States, with the number of Americans dying of overdose of Fentanyl every year striking.
Trump's seizure of this issue, on the one hand, indeed reflects the real pressure in the country, and on the other hand, has also found a sound legitimate reason for this trip to Asia.
It is said, Fentanyl is largely a social governance issue in the United States itself.
The anti-drug system is not perfect enough and the social protection system has loopholes. If these fundamental problems are not solved, the effect will definitely be limited if we simply hope to solve the fentanyl crisis through diplomatic channels.
Trump put this issue at the top of the Sino-American meeting, and more. In order to shift the attention of the domestic to other policy disputes, at the same time for their own diplomatic operations cover a layer of "for the people request" coat.
Just as Trump showed optimism about the outcome of the meeting, the news from The New York Times poured cold water on this optimism.
The Trump administration is preparing to launch a new trade investigation against China on the grounds that China “failed to comply with the terms of the trade agreement signed during its first term.”
What is said here is The first phase of China-U.S. economic and trade agreement signed in 2020 agreed that China would purchase large amounts of goods such as U.S. agricultural products.
The choice of time is interesting.
Just on the night that Trump was about to depart for Asia, such news broke out suddenly, and it was hard to say that it was coincidence.
It is more like setting bargaining chips for the upcoming meeting, or putting psychological pressure on China.
After all, once a trade investigation is launched, the subsequent tariff war that may be triggered will not be good news for both sides.
In fact, the trade friction between the United States and the United States has been warming up in recent months.
In September, the United States violated previous consensus and suddenly tightened export control measures against China companies.
This move surprised many people because the two sides had clearly had positive interactions in some areas of technical cooperation before.
China's response was also quick.
On October 9, China took a decisive move and upgraded its rare earth export control measures.
The importance of rare earths to modern industry, especially high-tech manufacturing, is self-evident.
China dominates the global supply chain of rare earth, and this upgrade of controls is clearly sending a signal to the United States: You have your chip control and I have my rare earth weapons.
This kind of trade game between you and me has made the already complex Sino-US relations more subtle.
Both sides are testing each other's bottom line, and both are accumulating leverage for possible negotiations.
Rare earth issues, U.S. soybean trade, nuclear issues, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will all become important topics in the upcoming meeting.
Trump's attitude this time is quite contradictory.
On the one hand, he openly expressed confidence that the Sino-U.S. meeting could a good outcome, and even said that "everyone would be very happy."
On the other hand, his team is preparing for trade investigations behind the scenes that may intensify conflicts.
This duplicative approach fully reflects the speculative nature of his China policy.
Thinking back to Trump’s first term, this strategy is not new.
He once said that he would restart the high tariffs on China, which made a lot of momentum. Later, he suddenly kept a low profile and showed his willingness to talk.
This seemingly chaotic approach may actually be a deliberate strategy— Increase the ability to negotiate prices by creating uncertainty.
If Trump really insists on continuing on the old road of "pressure", the result probably won't be as "optimistic" as he expected.
China’s rapid counteraction to rare-earth controls has proved that unilateral pressure strategies are limited in the current international environment.
Resolving real problems requires both sides to express their sincerity and to seek the intersection of common interests on the basis of mutual respect.
This time, Trump arranged the Sino-US meeting at the finale, hyped the fentanyl issue, and prepared for trade investigation behind it. All these actions have a strong domestic political color.
He needs to prove his influence on the international stage to the American people, and he needs to find compensation for possible policy mistakes.
The complexity of China-US relations cannot be solved by one or two high-level meetings, nor can it be changed by unilateral pressure.
A real breakthrough requires both sides to realize the importance of cooperation and take practical actions on specific issues.
If you still hold the zero-sum game mindset, then no matter how lively the meeting scene, substantial progress will be limited.
Source of information:
Official statement from the White House press room
White House Press Secretary Levitt Officially Announces Trump’s Asia Trip Plan and APEC Meeting Schedule
Exclusive New York Times Investigative Report
The Trump administration is preparing to launch a trade investigation into China.U.S. Trade Representative Office Policy Documents
Official Assessment Report on the Implementation of the First Phase of China-US Economic and Trade Agreement in 2020Announcement of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
Announcement of upgrading rare earth export control measures in response to US export restrictionsAPEC Summit Official Agenda
Official timetable for South Korea-hosted APEC meetingUS State Department Statement on Asia-Pacific Affairs
Official position on the fentanyl issue, the nuclear issue and the Russia-Ukraine conflictTrade data from the Customs Administration of China and the United States
The latest official statistics on soybean trade, rare earth exports and bilateral trade volume