This weekend, China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade talks in Malaysia. It can be said that the whole world is paying attention to this trade talk. Because this will be related to the economic and trade exchanges between China and the United States, and even the confrontation of the whole Sino-US relationship, will it be comprehensively escalated?
So what is one of the main backgrounds of this meeting? I think it is mainly at three levels.
The first can be considered the microscopic level. It is after the National Day long holidays, we launched a round of rare-earth counter-reaction against the United States. This can be said to give the United States the first big stick, sent a serious warning signal, the United States reaction to this is also strong, so the subsequent situation will not escalate, will largely depend on the outcome of this meeting.
The next APEC meeting in South Korea, China and the United States are expected to hold a meeting.The basis for the meeting will largely depend on whether the talks will be able to some important consensus, which will be the basis for whether China and the United States will be able to reach a comprehensive trade agreement.
The third one can be regarded as a macro level. Against the background of the second round of interest rate cuts in the United States, the United States will conduct the second round of interest rate cuts at the end of the month. How to control the rhythm and timing of this round of interest rate cuts, and how should China, the United States, Europe and Japan coordinate? It is still in a fierce game.
From the background of this Sino-US trade talks, it is obvious that it is more urgent for the United States to reach a corresponding consensus on the talks. This is closely related to a series of difficulties that the United States is encountering now.
At present, the U.S. federal government is still closed, mainly because the two parties have been unable to reach an agreement on a new budget. This can be seen as a kind of pressure exerted by the Democratic Party on Trump within the United States.
On the outside, the U.S.-mediated Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not made any new progress since the beginning of the year, largely because Europe behind Ukraine, as well as the Democratic Party and international financial capital forces inside the United States, have been preventing the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from ending.
At this time, the U.S. choice of the route after the second round of interest rate cuts has been in a state of delay, and it is possible to exacerbate tensions in East Asia with the rise of the Japanese far-right. So on the first day of our long vacation, we launched a series of countermeasures that put our concerns and pressure on Trump's head.
In the face of pressure from all sides, now Trump urgently needs to open up the situation.This is the situation of this China-US economic and trade talks, the United States side.
The United States should say that it has high expectations for this Sino-US economic and trade talks. At present, there should be a higher probability of negotiation. The reason for this judgment is mainly because the United States has actually found a good step for itself.
Before the U.S. has put forward three conditions, called rare soya and phentanyl, among these three, especially rare soils, many people may have a misunderstanding.Thinking that the U.S. position is to lift the related sanctions, this is probably impossible, the U.S. really want to talk, should be hoping to loosen regulatory controls.
In other words, what we are currently adopting is a control measure of declaration and approval. The declaration will not be cancelled. As for the certainty of approval, it all depends on our mood. Relax a little when you need it, tighten it a little when you don't need it. Being able to retract and retract it freely is enough.
Besides, soybeans are our necessities, and liberalizing purchases was originally a win-win situation, but the problem is that the United States has increased tariffs, so the United States has left itself a step, that is, fentanyl. Using this as an excuse, the United States has previously increased tariffs of 20%, and this time it is possible to cancel them all.
So to illustrate, the U.S. seems to be strong, putting three conditions, but actually more like a forward-to-back strategy.
The United States has missed its first window of opportunity. Many people may still have the impression that in the first half of this year, there has been rumors outside that Trump may visit China in early November. In fact, what we talked about is that after attending the APEC meeting in South Korea, we might visit China.
However, it is obvious that the actual development has not made corresponding progress. The expected visit to China turned into a Sino-US meeting in South Korea. Whether the meeting can even be achieved depends to a large extent on this economic and trade talks.
And that expected visit to China, now has become possible in early next year. but in fact, Trump wants to the visit to China in early next year, the prerequisite is the need for this time in South Korea at the US-China meeting, at least to comparatively significant consensus and progress.
Only in this way will it be possible to reach a more comprehensive trade agreement in the next two months and create conditions for Trump's visit to China. Otherwise, you will not be able to negotiate anything, and this kind of visit will become meaningless whether it is for us or the United States.
From this timeline and the pace of development, the resistance that Trump encounters internally is indeed great.This time after the Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks, it is likely to be one of the two options I mentioned earlier in a long article, namely that the United States will make concessions in terms of trade, and it is unlikely that it will put more pressure in the direction of Europe to advance the Sino-U.S. trade.
This is not enough for us, and afterwards Trump will need to show more determination and honesty to do so.