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Three days have passed since takaichi sanae became the new Japanese Prime Minister, and the Japanese side can't wait for the congratulations from the Chinese side. The Japanese media took the initiative to ask at the press conference whether the Chinese side would send a congratulatory message. As a result, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun only responded lightly: "China has made appropriate arrangements in accordance with diplomatic practice."
"Just" means that the matter has been twisted, congratulations are no longer, and warnings can be sent again.
Guo Jiakun then stressed that he hoped Japan would abide by the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan and keep its commitments on history and the Taiwan Province issue.
China's response, to put it bluntly, is China's distrust of the new Japanese government. During the election campaign, takaichi sanae was a famous anti-China Depth Charge, amending the Constitution, visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and cooperating with the United States to contain China, and doing everything. When she was elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party, many people predicted that Japan would usher in the most anti-China government.
Surprisingly, takaichi sanae actually changed his face after taking office, and he didn't be aggressive or malicious. The new foreign minister also responded to China's warnings, saying that China should advance China-Japan relations on the basis of strategic mutual relations and deal with differences through dialogue.
Originally, the outside world was waiting to see the "anti-China" drama of the new Japanese government. As a result, takaichi sanae didn't even go to the Yasukuni Shrine, which he had to go to every year, and didn't say a heavy word to China.
Why did an extreme hawk become soft after taking office? It's not conscience discovery behind it, But the mess in Japan forced her to bow her head. If she dared to turn against China at this time, she might not be able to sit on the throne of prime minister for a few days.
What is the situation in Japan now? the political black gold scandal has not ended, the wave of corruption inside the Democratic Party; economically, prices have risen to the people, the yen has devalued to a historic low, the government debt is terrible, equivalent to 240% of GDP.
If Takaichi Sanae is still hard on China at this time, it will be tantamount to asking for death. The economic ties between China and Japan are too deeply tied, and Japanese automobiles, electronic parts and other industries are all supported by the Chinese market. The return on investment of Japanese companies in China is much higher than that in Europe, America and ASEAN. It's really a falling out. Japanese companies were the first to quit.
More importantly, the diplomatic experience of the high-market early苗 is almost zero. She used to focus on domestic politics, but suddenly she had to deal with complicated Sino-US relations, which she couldn't play at all.Therefore, she nominated Shigeki as foreign minister because she took a fancy to his diplomatic experience.
Motegi's emphasis on "strategic mutually beneficial relationship" and "dialogue" at the press conference is actually paving the way for the high market: stabilize China first, and then talk about other things.This pragmatic attitude is not sincere friendship, but a strategic compromise. Japan now has no capital to oppose China, relies on China economically, and does not dare to pick trouble alone militarily. It can only rely on multilateral mechanisms to edge the ball.
But the market has not completely abandoned the anti-China background. She has shown good to China, while covertly strengthening economic security, such as pushing for supply chain disconnection and reinforcing investment censorship. These moves seem to be low, and the reality is in the mine. In the future, she may play speculation between China and the United States, while enjoying the United States, while raising benefits from China.
The market was soft to China, but there was no ambiguity about the United States.When she took office, she was busy preparing the "big package" to welcome Trump's visit to Japan, buying American pickup trucks, soybeans and natural gas. This list is almost the same as China's counter-American projects, China counter what Japan imports.
But is Trump so good to start? Japan is also “debted” to the US investment of $50 billion, which was promised during the period of the government of Sharp. Trump this time, will definitely raise debt, and maybe even increase in the energy sector, and the U.S. military expenses in Japan will have to increase Japan, which is a huge expense.
So in a hurry to send money, it is not only to consolidate the Japanese-U.S. alliance, but the Japanese economy now is in danger, is it so hard to fill the head really can eat out?
There is strategic anxiety behind the fact that Gaoshi Zaomiao is so beautiful. Japan wants to use the power of the United States to check and balance China in the Indo-Pacific region, such as promoting the "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy, and also plans to increase military dues to 2% of GDP. But these actions will only make Japan more dependent on the United States and lose its autonomy.
Takashi Saami is known as the "successor of Abe", but Abe can at least deal with China and the United States. What about her? There seemed to be no other way than giving money.
Now Japan is, China is rising, Japan is afraid; the United States is pressuring, Japan is more afraid.The Takashi city government wants to speculate between China and the United States, but the reality is that the United States wants money, China wants the market, and Japan is caught in the middle. To put it bluntly, Takashi Zao Miao is betting on the country's luck.
The Japanese people are generally dissatisfied with this, online screaming, It is said that the government "kneels down on the United States and bullies China", and if the economic problems are not solved, it will only please foreign countries.The support rate of High Market Early Foods was not high, so it goes, afraid that the ruling career will be short.
Why is Japan so opposed to China and the United States?The main reason is that it is in an embarrassing loop: economically dependent on China, and securely dependent on the United States.This division has gradually transformed the Japanese government's foreign policy into: not to dare to be hard on China, not to dare to be soft on the United States.
In the next few years, there is a high probability that China-Japan relations will be "fighting but not breaking". Cooperation is indispensable because Japan's economy cannot be separated from China. If Takashi Saami is really anti-China, the first thing to be unlucky is Japanese companiesIn China, the return on investment in Japanese enterprises is generally higher than in other regions, the supply chain is broken? it is equivalent to breaking the way of life.
But friction will continue, especially the Taiwan Province issue and historical issues. Takaichi sanae may not be openly anti-China, but it will make China stumble through multilateral mechanisms.
The biggest risk is that the nationalist sentiment in Japan will be ignite.The high-city cabinet may undermine humanitarian exchanges if it pushes out-of-the-country legislation, or makes inappropriate remarks, and increase the mutual trust of the people of China and Japan.
For China, the coping strategy is "combining rigidity with softness". On the rigid side, it is to resolutely counter Japan's cross-line behavior, such as provocation on the Taiwan Strait issue; The soft side is to expand cooperation areas, such as new energy and third-party market cooperation. China's recent statements have shed light on the bottom line: talk can, turn face can not.