In anticipation of the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea, the atmosphere appears to have changed a bit. Especially U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently changed his strong Japanese gesture, openly stated that his goal of raising tariffs was not to ¡°harm China¡±.

He then cited China¡¯s need to make ¡°three major concessions¡± ¨C soybean, rare earth, and phentanyl. He claimed that as long as China can meet U.S. demands in these three areas, he could consider lowering tariffs on China.

Does China have any reason to make concessions?

The vote ledger in soybeans

Trade in agricultural products, especially soybeans, has never been just a simple matter of buying and selling. It has always been a focus at the Sino-US economic and trade negotiation table, because it is directly connected to the huge interest group of American farmers. It can be said that soybean trade has evolved into a lever that can accurately leverage the domestic political landscape of the United States.

Trump's usual tariff stick in the past, but this time he shot a "boomerang" and smashed it hard on his own people. Affected by the tariff war, the cost of purchasing soybeans from the United States for China companies has risen sharply. Business is business, and buyers will naturally turn to more cost-effective options.

The data does not lie. China's source of imports quickly turned to Brazil, and its market share soared to more than 70%. At the same time, the share of U.S. soybeans in the China market has dropped precipitously from nearly half to less than 23%. What is even more ironic is that there has been an embarrassing situation where orders from China were zero during the bumper soybean season in the United States.

This fully proves that China, with its huge market demand, has the powerful power to reshape the global agricultural trade landscape. When Trump's business-style negotiating style realized he was at a disadvantage, he began to talk more about his good personal relationship with top Chinese officials, and his words softened.

Therefore, when the U.S. puts the soybean issue on the table, it seems to be a demand, the reality is more like seeking remedies for its past policy mistakes, trying to clean up that deep "inner wound".

Whose neck is it?

If soybeans expose America¡¯s political weakness, then the rare earth issue is the opposite, it shows a strategic trickle in China¡¯s hand that is irreplaceable, a game that can be seen as a ¡°asymmetric deterrent¡± at the level of a textbook.

America¡¯s proud high-tech industries, from chip manufacturing to cutting-edge military industry, rely heavily on rare-earth supplies from China. This is like a wrestler, all armor, but exposed its throat to adversaries. China has held this ¡°strategic throat¡± thanks to its monopoly position in this key hub in the global supply chain.

More importantly, China's strategy is constantly escalating. The new management regulations recently introduced are no longer simply resource export controls. Its control scope has been extended to related technologies, equipment, and even items that only contain trace amounts of rare earth elements. This indicates that China's control has evolved from the resource level to the level of rules and the entire industrial chain.

This escalation is a precise response to some unreasonable U.S. sanctions, such as the "50% rule" against Chinese companies.

The power of this rare earth card lies not in playing it every day and using it all the time, but in its potential deterrent power of "attracting but not sending it". This calm and fatal control is in sharp contrast to the tariff weapon of the United States, which "opens wide and closes wide" and has diminishing marginal effects. On this battlefield, the traditional power relationship has been completely subverted, and the initiative is firmly in the hands of China.

The door is technical.

When it comes to Fentanyl, the nature of the whole game has completely changed, this issue has completely disconnected from the logical scope of economic and trade, it is more like a carefully constructed ¡°story weapon¡± by the United States, a pure political and public opinion war.

Fentanyl is a potent synthetic analgesic that is extremely addictive. The United States has paid a painful price for this. In 2023 alone, up to 74,000 people will lose their lives due to the abuse of fentanyl-like substances. Faced with such a severe domestic governance crisis, the choice of the United States is to point the finger at China and throw out the so-called "China Responsibility Theory".

This accusation, in the view of the Chinese side, is purely "unknown", in fact, China's domestic control of fentanyl drugs is extremely strict, limited to only legitimate medical means, and can never be the source of the so-called problem.

What can most reveal the true intention of the US is its absurd punitive measures. The US has used Fentanyl as a pretext to impose a general 20% tariff on ¡°all¡± goods imported from China. This move itself is full of unlogical provocative meanings ¨C if the issue is really on drugs, why punish all goods?

This proves precisely that its political purpose is far greater than the actual purpose of regulation, and its core is to ¡°scandalize¡± and label China, thus creating a code that did not exist in negotiations.

This tax item, known as the "fentanyl tariff" by the outside world, remains even during the period when both parties agree to suspend some tariffs. As a result, the US tariff on China remained at a high level of 30% in a specific period of time, while China's tariff on the United States was only 10%. China's position on this kind of fabricated accusation and blackmail is extremely tough. This is no longer an economic issue that can be exchanged for interests, but a matter of principle related to national dignity and truth, and it is absolutely impossible to compromise.

conclusion

Looking back, soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl constitute a complex jigsaw puzzle in the current Sino-US game. Soybeans are the economic weakness caused by U.S. policy mistakes. Rare earths are China's unique structural strategic advantage. Fentanyl, on the other hand, is a narrative shackle imposed by the United States to pass on domestic contradictions.

The Trump administration is extremely pressured, and the "good words" "face change" strategy is precisely in these three characteristically different asymmetrical battlefields, in vain looking for the real picture of the breakthrough. His business-style pragmatism has made him accustomed to adjusting the gesture according to the situation and the worst. He may feel that the Chinese side "eat soft and not hard", so there is a new strategy called "swan shell".

However, no matter how great the performance is, and how the words change, the most basic power structures in these fields cannot be changed. The ultimate determination of the course of the game is not a momentary tactic or a phrase, but which party can understand and use these structural differences more deeply. In this long-lasting game, any tactics that depart from reality are destined to be limited.

Phoenix Net 2025-10-20 "Trump: Don't Want to Hurt China, Willing to Lower Tariff Levels"

Securities Times 2025-10-20 "Trump says he will raise three major issues to China, the Foreign Ministry responds"