Hello everyone, I am a crown.
Long time no see, Crow. I went to Tianjin to visit the Helicopter Expo last week and just returned to Beijing. The corresponding content will be updated on Xiaopo Station and video account soon. All friends are welcome to come and join us.
Then come back and talk to everyone about something that seems a little out topic – “Nobel Prize,” or so. Japan and the Nobel Prize。
I believe that after several days of precipitation, everyone should be calmer about this year's Nobel Prize. Whether it's winning Japan's prize to the sky or stepping on the Nobel Prize status, these extreme emotions have begun to cool down, which can make us talk more calmly and seriously about the phenomenon that Japanese people frequently win the Nobel Prize.
When the Nobel Prize winners were announced in October, Japanese scientists Shimon Sakaguchi and Susumu Kitagawa won the Physics Prize and the Chemistry Prize respectively, making The total number of Nobel Prizes in Japan (including Japanese descent) exceeded 30, sit firmly at the top of the Asian Nobel Prize; and Same time, according to data from the International Monetary Fund, Japan's GDP will be overtaken by India and fall to the fifth largest economy in the world。
Some people may be anxious to say this again: Isn't this the classic "Nobel Prize is useless" theory? If you can't eat grapes, you say you're sour.
I can only say first do not hurry. I think a lot of people have come across, some people like to use our country's best fields of performance, lightly say our country's strength has been terrible; and on the contrary, there are so some people, like to use China's worst fields, to say what "this represents China's real strength." “Nobel Prize in Heaven, National Power in the Land”Now it is an objective phenomenon existing in Japan. Whether it is urgent or not, it can be seriously pondered and pondered Why does this upside down happen?What lessons can be learned from our experience.
You may have heard of this: The outbreak of the Nobel Prize in Japan in recent decades is actually a script that Japan deliberately "arranged" early。
in 2001In March, the Japanese government launched the Second Science and Technology Basic Plan, in which a seemingly insane goal was made clear: "I will win 30 Nobel Prizes in the next 50 years"。To this end, Japan also set up a "research liaison center" after the centenary of the Nobel Prize to connect with the Nobel Prize selection agencies.
Once this ambitious plan was announced, it sparked widespread controversy.In 2001, Nobel Prize winner in chemistry, Yuan Yuanxi, criticized the government “without a mind” and called it “crabs.”
However, some commentators pointed out that Japan was still the second largest economic power in the world at that time, and its strong economic foundation and continuous investment in scientific research made this goal not out of reach.
Looking back now, we can say with certainty that this "prediction" made by the Japanese government in those days was not so much a gamble as a long-term plan based on strength. These are Japan's "golden generation" officials who are good at formulating industrial counterattack policies after the war. An accurate assessment of the country's scientific research potential。
At that time, the Japanese government was keenly aware that at the turn of the century, Japan's large investment in enterprises and Basic scientific research was about to enter a harvest period. coupled with The Nobel Prize itself is lagging, research results often need to be verified for many years before they can be recognized. Therefore, it is a matter of course for them to predict that Japan will usher in a round of technological explosion in the future.
So, what kind of situation was Japan in at that time?
If we put aside hindsight and evaluate it only based on the conditions at that time, we will come to a conclusion: what Japan holds is simply a good card of "Tianhu", and it is difficult to lose.
In terms of economic aggregate, despite the "lost decade", Japan still firmly occupied the second place in the world in 2001. Japan has occupied this position for 33 years, and its long-term accumulation has made its economic stock and scientific and technological achievements reach an amazing scale. More importantly, At that time, Japan occupied a cliff-like leading position among most important industries in the world.。
In the 1980s, Japan Home appliances brands form almost a monopoly in the global marketEven in the 2000s, its foundations are still deep.
In 2001, Panasonic ranked 26th in the world's top 500; Sharp's LCD TV occupied 80% of the global market share, and by 2003 it occupied the world's half-walled river.
The coolness of terminal products must be inseparable from the support of upstream core technologies. For example, Sharp started mass production of LCD panels as early as 1973, and continued to promote technology iteration, which made Japan's technology and process dominance in the panel field extremely strong.
Sony has established the golden brand of "Sony Technology" and "Made in Japan" with a series of global hits such as the Walkman Walkman and PlayStation game console, almost single-handedly pushing Japanese products to the peak of the consumer electronics field.
is Because Japan has many popular models on the consumer side (C-end), it can have independent choices in its technical route。 For example, lithium batteries were first used in consumer electronics by Japan, which in turn drove its lithium battery industry to become the "emerging industry" with the strongest technology, the largest share, and the highest profit in the world.
the then Japanese Combined Industry, that really turned the Olympic Games into the National Games, and its local market ranking is often the final ranking in the world.
Even in the IT field, which is often criticized nowadays, Japan at that time was a powerful existence of "I am invincible below the US imperialism, and I exchange one against the US imperialism".
In the most representative laptop industry, Japan is dominant: its laptop market accounts for up to 50% of the total PC sales, far surpassing the U.S. At the time, the world’s thinnest notebook came from Japan’s NEC. In the IT subsidiary industry, especially in storage technology, Japan also leads the world.
Fujitsu and NEC are among the best. They have made continuous breakthroughs in hard disk storage density technology and have long been among the top three hard disk manufacturers in the world.
Faced with the rise of the Internet wave at the end of the 20th century, Japan is also well prepared.
In 2001, the Japanese government promulgated the "IT Basic Law" and launched the "e-Japan Strategy", with the goal of building the world's most advanced IT country within five years. This strategy has achieved remarkable results. In the same year, the Internet penetration rate of Japanese enterprises reached 95.8%, and the e-commerce market reached 47.8 trillion yen. Its IT application level ranks among the top in the world.
After saying so much, what is this? What does it have to do with the Nobel Prize?The relationship is very close.
because Japan's subsequent Nobel Prize eruption was precisely the field of basic science research relied on by these advanced industries, which is the inevitable result of Japan's long-term investment in basic science.。
For example:
• The 2014 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to赤崎勇,天野浩, and 中村修二, who invented the blue light-emitting diode (LED), Behind it is Japan's strong semiconductor industry foundation。
·Akira Yoshino, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2019, directly conducted research on lithium-ion batteries Supporting Japan's leading consumer electronics and new energy industries。
• In 2025, award-winning Nagoya, he studied metal organic framework (MOF) materials, with broad prospects in the field of gas storage, separation, and Japan is focusing on its hydrogen energy vehicle supporting industry。
In that case, everything is fine, the explosion of Japan's Nobel Prize and the strength of the industry complement each otherThen, how did he become a nobel prize, and this one is unique? out of syncWhat about ?
The answer is Japan The big debacle of final consumer goods at the C-end。
Japanese consumer electronics industry around 2000 can be called unlimited landscape. listening to, hand in hand gaming machines, CD machines these products fire around the world, almost a hand in hand. At that time, Japan, not only end products sold well, but also It has driven the development of a large number of upstream supply chain companies in the country.For example, lithium batteries, displays, chips, etc., can be called a glory.
But entered After the new century, the rate of digital product updating is increasing rapidly.。 Walkman, the former "music listening artifact", has gradually been replaced by Apple's iPod; Later, even the iPod was replaced by a smartphone that could listen to music.
Although there are still loyal players on handheld game consoles, more and more people are starting to play games on their mobile phones. As for CD players, with the popularization of online music and streaming media services, they have slowly withdrawn from the mainstream market.
This series of changes has led to Japan in the field of consumer electronics. Diminishing advantageThe final product cannot be sold, and is dependent on it. Upstream supply chains have also been hit。
For example, manufacturers who once specialized in producing lithium batteries for these devices, orders were drastically reduced and had to make a difficult transformation.
Why do Japanese consumer goods collapse?
Let's just say that Japan's Nobel Prize strategy is in a sense also one that Japan is most passionate about “Betting on transportation.”。In fact, gambling on the national game itself is not absolutely impossible. How can a betting dog lose every day and win? In terms of the Nobel Prize alone, Japan has won the bet on the national luck. However, the so-called smooth and smooth, Japan's situation in an era when industry, economics and scientific research are properly matched sounds so pleasant to the ear. However, once an unexpected dilemma is encountered, the true nature of this gambling dog will quickly be exposed, and all I can think of is another gamble on stud.
This consumer product starts to hit the wall, and the Japanese response is Always want to do something different from others。
For example, Sharp made a TV, no matter what the four colors, ordinary people can not see the difference, the price is expensive.You want to say that they pursue the user experience?
This kind of self-admiration for technology has caused Japanese companies to completely collapse on the battlefield of the new century: Sony's Walkman was completely subverted by Apple's iPod and later smartphone revolution, and Panasonic's wrong decision to bet on plasma caused it to lose the whole flat-panel TV era, while Japanese mobile phone manufacturers stuck to local standards and handed over the global market to Apple, Samsung, and later Chinese brand clusters.
When formulating grand strategies, I like to be unconventional, but I stick to my own way in specific implementationWhen U.S. companies better understand consumers redefine phones with iPhones, more cost-controlled South Korean enterprises use LCD TVs to occupy the living room, and later Chinese brands that win the price-per-price rise, Japan's consumer electronics giants can only look at the market share a thousand miles away.
In this environment, Japanese companies have missed out on new trends such as smartphones and streaming media。 As a result, Now Japan's coveted technology has become "give others children."It's like Michelin's chef doesn't do a restaurant, delivering semi-finished products specifically to the outsourcing platform, although the craft is still, but the brand name has changed to someone else's name.
The ultimate result is that Japan's terminal brands are completely shrinking, but its top research achievements accumulated in upstream areas, such as Sony's image sensors, advanced semiconductor materials, etc., are mostly the "core supplier" of Samsung, Apple and even Taiwan chip in China.
When a country loses its end-to-end products and “explosive money products,” is it, in a sense, “making wedding dresses for others” by accumulating the powerful upstream research it spends a lot of heart and money on?
When you could have earned a total of 100 yuan upstream and downstream for a product, but now you can only make materials costs of 20 yuan for incoming orders. How can your company be competitive? How can national strength grow?
When it comes to Japanese industries, there is a widely circulated saying that Japanese companies voluntarily "give up the low-end and specialize in the high-end", especially in the field of materials. It sounds like they have strategically given up the mass market in pursuit of "high-end".
This statement is actually quite deceptive. After thinking about it, it will be understood that in any industry, what can really bring stable cash flow and profits is precisely the low-end products with high volume.
High-end technology is better, if no one can afford and use it, is it not a good setting?
What's more, many so-called "high-end" products in Japan are still concentrated in upstream links such as materials. This is easy to be "bypassed" by downstream enterprises-no matter how good or expensive your materials are, if other terminal manufacturers say "you can't afford it, don't need it", you will have nothing to do.
A healthy enterprise should be all high, middle and low-endWhen did capital have such a “restrictive power”?
lithium batteryIt is a typical example.Japan invested in years, the result because of the consumption electronics all-line failure, Soho hydrogen energy does not pay attention to power batteries, resulting in the accumulation of lithium electric technology instead became "to make marriage for China".
The Nobel Prize winner, Jino Boehner, broke the question and said: Now The successful model is that downstream terminal brands (such as Apple and Tesla) directly connect with upstream materials, but Japan is weak in the downstream links close to consumersIn the past, Japan had its own mobile phone and computer industry, the production of batteries in Japan was reasonable; now terminal manufacturing has been shifted, and it is hard to make batteries in Japan, but it seems strange.
Mr. Zhiyo believes that “Japanese batteries are standing on the cliff.”
According to the latest data, in the consumer-grade lithium battery, Japan can only barely protect its domestic marketIn the power lithium batteries that erupted a century later, the world's top ten in the first five months of this year, Japan has only a Panasonic, with a market share of 2.9%, which is still deeply tied to Tesla.
Japanese media reported that China's lithium batteries "overtaking"
However, the Ningde era, which was freed from Japanese-owned holdings, grew to the number one in the world after moving back to China.
It is said, Once the industrial chain is broken down, it will be difficult for upstream technological advantages to be transformed into downstream product competitiveness; conversely, there is no downstream market feedback and capital return, and upstream R & D will be unsustainable.。
That is why, there are people who say that Japan has the ability to "crush China lithium battery" solid state battery black technology, but can never get out - not technology can not, but the transmission mechanism of the industry chain, has been broken.
Japan is hydrogen EnergyThe current situation in the field can be called a "national level" embarrassment. The hydrogen storage material technology that won the Nobel Prize this year is indeed powerful, but the reality is: King in the laboratory, bronze in the market。
Japan has invested early in hydrogen energy technology and has many patents, especially in the "high-precision" routes of high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage and organic liquid hydrogen storage (LOHC).
But The downstream application launches, making the top technology of the upstream a set.。
Japan is obsessed with promoting hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, but Costs and infrastructure become a dead circleThe construction of hydrogen stations can not be followed far, the construction also loses money, resulting in the car can not be sold out; the car can not be sold out, the hydrogen station is no more business, the cost can never go down.The result is, the car like Toyota Mirai, technology looks very advanced, but sales are very poor.
In contrast, China has taken a more ground-based path.We are not dying in a passenger car, but Commercial vehicle attack., such as heavy trucks and buses. These vehicles have fixed operating routes, well-equipped hydrogen refueling stations, and are of great significance for emission reduction. Through large-scale application and rapid cost dilution, China's hydrogen energy heavy truck ownership has accounted for a large share of the world.
more importantly costThe 70MPa high-pressure hydrogen storage tank developed in Japan has resulted in hydrogen storage systems accounting for 40% of the cost of the entire car, while China has controlled the cost to about one-third of the Japanese scheme through scale production and more pragmatic routes (such as low-pressure hydrogen storage).
Japan's hydrogen energy production and consumption in 2024 will be 2 million tons, while China's will be 36.5 million tons! In the face of this number, really, what competition is there? Japan was obviously the first to come, and it still focused on laying out characteristic industries. The war has ended like this. What can I say? No matter how advanced Japan's upstream hydrogen energy technology is, it cannot truly effectively drive the domestic economy.
Japan's "Nobel prize in the sky" and "national power" phenomenon, say wearing is a game. “Time is wrong.”Tragedy: Technical medals in the laboratory failed to be exchanged in time for real gold and silver in the market.
“The milk has come, the child is dead!”This is the greatest sorrow.
On the issue of the "Japan Nobel Prize", there is no need to belittle the Nobel Prize, nor does it need to belittle Japanese scientists and scientific research achievements. Research cannot save the Japanese industry.。Then you say this is a pure historical coincidence. Is the "derailment" of Japan's scientific research and industry economics just "bad luck"? Not really, there are also The inevitability。
In their heyday, Japanese enterprises have gradually bred- Strategic arrogance and institutional rigidity。The deeper reason lies in Japan's rigid economic structure. The chaebol systems such as Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo control the lifeblood of Japan's economy, resulting in closed markets, insufficient competition, and stifling innovation.
In other words, under the design of the Japanese government's "Nobel Prize strategy", the pace of scientific research and innovation can be quite guaranteed; however, this development of the Japanese industry, determined. Innovation at the industrial side must not keep up with the pace of scientific research and innovationThe “mismatch” is too late.
One thing to say, China is a latecomer in the market economy, but the biggest enlightenment taught by the market economy to China is to listen to the voice of the market. "Weakness is not an obstacle to survival, but arrogance is"; In addition, the product always pursues to reduce costs and increase sales. Without the popularity of C-end products, the upstream technology will be "without source, water without source".。
Back to our topics from the beginning, the Japanese Nobel Prize broke out, that must be what Japan did right; and the Japanese history and the Nobel Prize are increasingly "mismatched", Japan must have done something wrong. Innovation is a comprehensive concept.This is not to say that only basic research, cutting-edge science and technology innovation is innovation, political system, industrial policy, enterprise vitality, social governance, theory of thought, human spirit ... all these fields, also need to innovate, the progress of all aspects in general match and continue to promote the backward part, this can have a good effect. disregard, or even ignore the importance of innovation in other fields, that is to be a big problem.
In this sense, the news that Japanese scientists won the Nobel Prize this time can attract the attention of many Chinese people, and it is still very meaningful. Choose the good and follow it, and change it if it is bad.
References:
Xinhuanet: "The Japanese government raves: " We will win 30 Nobel Prizes in 50 years ""
Phoenix Reference: "Japan, which won 16 Nobel Prizes in 20 years and mass-produced Nobel Prizes, can't retain top scientists?"
Wisdom Time: "Why can only heavy trucks support the commercial dream of hydrogen fuel cells?"