Trump and Putin, who were still talking and laughing last Thursday, turned against each other on Monday because the United States announced sanctions against Russia's two major oil companies.
As soon as this news came out, the United States and Russia immediately tore their faces apart, and Trump also canceled the scheduled meeting with Putin.
What happened that caused the United States and Russia to turn against each other? And how many calculations are hidden behind this?
How did Trump’s patience get slightly worn off?
Trump really wanted to "get it done" with the war at first. He once vowed to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, and he also fantasized about "negotiating peace dividends" through lip service and trading skills. The problem is, Putin doesn't give face at all.
Since April this year, Trump has repeatedly hinted at being "disappointed" with Putin, but still endured it. In July, he issued an ultimatum to impose a 100% tariff if there was no improvement within 50 days.
As a result, Putin not only ignored it, but also stepped up his offensive. By mid-October, Trump had been out of bearance.
The so-called “informal communiqué” issued by the Kremlin on October 19 could be summarized in one sentence: Ukraine gave me the entire Donbass, and we will have a ceasefire.
This word came out, Trump's face was green. he tried his best to think about the mediation, and as a result, Putin directly opened up to the ground, simply face-to-face.
Unfortunately, as soon as news of this document broke out, the U.S. Congress immediately exploded. Lawmakers from both parties stared at Trump, asking if he intended to "sell out Ukraine." The mid-term elections are approaching, and Trump knows that he cannot retreat anymore.
Therefore, on October 23, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies. This is the first time Trump has actually taken action since taking office, aiming at Russia's most vital lifeline: energy.
Putin's abacus is good, but he turns out to be in the wrong direction
From the Kremlin’s point of view, they did not take this “opening price” as the final bottom line, but as a test.
The so-called "Donbass for a ceasefire", in fact, is to retreat, you do not give, I do not harm; if you promise, it is to make a stable profit.
But the problem is that Putin misjudged Trump's character. He may think that Trump is a "businessman president" who can make deals and can be intimidated as long as he gives him enough face. But he forgot that the most important thing in Trump's eyes is not national interests, but "personal face."
This time, Putin failed to fulfill his ceasefire promise, but also increased the attack with a backhand, making Trump lose face. Trump, who originally wanted to use a diplomatic show to polish his political achievements, suddenly found himself a joke. This feeling of being "played" completely fried him.
Putin, of course, is not unprepared.The day the US announced the sanctions, Russia immediately launched a "three-one" nuclear force exercise, and also specifically let Putin himself "watch" and put forward a scenario of "you dare to move me, I will scare you".
But that deterrence is more symbolic. Nuclear weapons can scare people, but they can't solve economic problems. Especially when oil exports are strangled, Russia's financial pressure will become heavier and heavier.
In response to the long-term war, Russia has also launched the autumn recruitment program, even the electronic recruitment system has been put on the line, simply banning mature men from leaving the country.
This "closed war" posture shows that the Kremlin is also ready for a long-term war of resistance, but this is not good news and will only make the war more difficult to end.
After the breakdown of US-Russia relations, who felt the most uncomfortable?
On the surface, Ukraine is the "beneficiary" of this turnover, but in fact it may be them who are the most uncomfortable. When the United States takes action, Ukraine will certainly be happy. After all, there are people to support it.
But the problem is that the situation has not substantially improved. Western aid can only maintain the status quo and cannot change the situation of the war.
The current situation in Ukraine is like fighting in the dirt, one cannot pull up, three people are not enough to sink.
Russia's summer offensive has made the situation in eastern Ukraine more complicated, and although U.S. sanctions are deterrent, it is difficult to change the deadlock on the front line in the short term.
On the European side, it is not comfortable to watch the United States and Russia turn against each other. On the one hand, they followed the United States and shouted slogans and were tough on Russia. On the other hand, they get hurt first as soon as energy prices go up.
More importantly, Europe is becoming more and more marginalized in this game.They want strategic autonomy, and the result is “following the class diplomacy.”
Whenever the United States makes a move, Europe can only echo it, but the real decision is not in their hands. This structural embarrassment may last for a long time.
Completely enter a new stage
The essence of this conflict is actually that US-Russia relations have entered a new normal of "strong confrontation and low trust".
Before we were able to talk side by side, now the doors to talk closed.The meeting with the head of state was postponed indefinitely, the external traffic was almost interrupted, and the next stage of the "dark war" may be frequent.
For example, cyber attacks, drone mutual attacks, intelligence warfare upgrades, these are likely to become the norm between the great powers, even if not directly engaged, but the "touch ceramic fighting" will be more and more.
From a larger perspective, this US-Russia confrontation is also reshaping the map of global relations. The energy market has begun to fluctuate, oil prices are changing day by day, and global inflationary pressures are about to rise again.
In this game of great powers, China hasined sufficient awareness. neither stands nor is it in a hurry to express, always adhering to the position of non-selection and non-confusion, showing the stability of the great country.
Many people still fantasize that US-Russian relations will one day "restore the old good", but the reality is that the cracks have penetrated the epidermis and hurt the bones.
The United States wants to maintain hegemony and Russia wants to break out of the encirclement. This structural contradiction cannot be resolved by one negotiation.
Trump's "real action" this time is the inevitable result of his trading style. He originally wanted to win back face through negotiations, but he was turned against by Putin. In the end, he had to rely on sanctions to get back his place.
In the coming months, there may be a small-star dialogue between the US and Russia, but that kind of "you come to me" show is basically over.
The battlefield in Ukraine will remain stalemate, and the patterns in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific will also be affected. The "new cold war" between the United States and Russia has quietly begun.
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