«--[· Preface ·]--»
On October 22, a series of gunfire shootings once again strained the nerves of the entire Balkan peninsula. According to Reuters, a shooting occurred in front of the National Assembly building in the Serbian capital Belgrade, where a 70-year-old man opened several guns to a 57-year-old man, causing the latter to shoot in the legs. The attackers also fired a nearby gas tank and set fire to a tent built by Wuchicki supporters.
«--[·Bloody Wednesday·]--»
The warm autumn sun on the Balkans failed to dispel the dark clouds hanging over Serbia after all. At 12 noon on October 22, 2025, several gunshots suddenly exploded in the square in front of the National Assembly Building in Belgrade. A 70-year-old man holding a modified pistol fired three shots at 57-year-old tent keeper Milan Bogdanovic.
The moment the bullet penetrated the victim's thigh artery, a nearby gas tank was hit by a stray bullet, and the rising fireball instantly swallowed five tents. The attack took place in a protest camp set up by Vucic supporters.
These tents have existed since the collapse of the roof of the Novysad railway station in November 2024, when the tragedy of the deaths of 16 people sparked a nationwide protest, with the opposition pronouncing Wuchic’s demise. The assailant, Angelovich, confessed after his arrest that he “cannot tolerate the tents occupying the city center”, but police investigations found that the gunman who had served in the national security department was carrying a military-grade combustion bomb at the time of the incident and precisely selected the parliamentary lunch break.
"This is not an ordinary crime, but a planned terrorist attack." Vucic interrupted his activities in Novi Sad and returned to Beijing urgently. During the live broadcast in front of the presidential palace, he showed a rare expression of anger."Some people are trying to tear the country apart with violence, but we will not let them succeed."
«--[·The violent cycle of gunpowder keg in the Balkans·]--»
This is not the first time Serbia has experienced a bloody May.On May 4, 2023, a neo-Nazi driver in the town of Mladenovac was shot and killed eight and wounded thirteen; on the same day in 2025, a similar attack occurred again in the same location, with the death toll rising to eight and wounded fourteen.
This shooting in the city center pushed violence from the suburbs to the heart of politics, and the victims turned from ordinary people to supporters of the president, completely escalating their nature. Vucic characterized it as "the standard routine of color revolution."
Evidence he presented at a national security conference showed that the attackers had financial dealings with the opposition groups that stormed the parliament building in December 2024, and the formula of incendiary bombs used was highly similar to the tactical manual of the Ukrainian far-right armed force "Azov Battalion".
What is even more alarming is that three days before the attack, European Commission President Von der Leyen had just visited Belgrade and demanded that Serbia must join sanctions against Russia or freeze its accession process. "This is a carefully designed 'combination boxing'."
Milovan Pavlovich, a professor of political science at the University of Belgrade, said: “External forces attempted to create social contradictions through economic pressure and spark incidents of violence.”“According to Serbian intelligence agencies, the attackers’ accounts received three anonymous remittances from Lithuania, totaling more than 20,000 euros, two weeks before the incident.
«--[·The geopolitical game behind EU sanctions·]--»
On the eve of the shooting, the Council of the European Union passed a resolution banning the transit of Russian natural gas through the territory of the European Union from 2026, which is no more than a “gas cut threat” for Serbia, which is 80% dependent on Russia.
More troublingly, Serbia’s gas contract with Russia will expire at the end of 2025 and Russia’s concerns about an early termination of the negotiations over EU sanctions have led Belgrade to face a “winter-free” crisis.
67% of Serbs oppose sanctions against Russia, with pro-Russia sentiment deeply rooted in the NATO bombing of 1999; the EU is Serbia’s largest trading partner, with a stagnant accession process leading to losses of around €2 billion in aid annually.
During a meeting with Von der Leyen on October 15, he had to promise to "reassess policy towards Russia" but privately accelerated negotiations with Russian oil companies in an attempt to circumvent the EU ban through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
This "two-line combat" strategy has made Serbia a wrestling ground for major powers 'games. The United States continues to fund the opposition through the National Endowment for Democracy, while Russia provides Serbian intelligence with early warning information on the "color revolution".
In March 2025, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, Nareshkin, revealed that Russia had a detailed list of the EU funding of the Serbian opposition, including several non-governmental organizations featuring the “environmental” banner.
«--[·Vucic's Way to Break the Game·]--»
Faced with internal and external difficulties, Vucic chose to attack as defense. Within 24 hours after the shooting, he signed three emergency decrees: increasing the maximum sentence for illegal gun possession from 12 years to 15 years, establishing a national electronic gun registration system, and authorizing the police to implement "preventive freezing" on suspicious accounts.
More symbolically, he announced on October 25 that he would attend the Moscow Energy Summit in November, even though the EU made it clear that “this move will affect the accession negotiations.”
This tough attitude has won the support of the majority of the country. The latest polls show that his approval rate has increased from 52% before the shooting to 58%. The ruling Kadima Party's advantage in local elections has further expanded.
In the energy field, Serbia is cooperating with Hungary to build the "North-South Natural Gas Corridor" and restarting the "Belt and Road" project with China. It plans to expand logistics cooperation with the Greek Port of Piraeus through the China-Serbia Railway to hedge against the impact of EU sanctions. Although this "eastward strategy" faced dissatisfaction from the EU, it gained Serbia the strategic initiative.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
If the EU insists on sanctions, Vucic may be forced to turn eastward; if Russia can ensure gas supply through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline, Serbia may become Russia's strategic fortress in the Balkans. Regardless of the outcome, this country, once torn by war, is experiencing another choice at a historical crossroads.