Since the resignation of Mongolia's Prime Minister O'Neil Yedong, Mongolia has completely fallen into a whirlwind of continuing political turmoil. On the one hand, the then chairman of the parliament, backed by the "youth reformists", Amabajaskalan, on the other hand, Zandan Shatar, who took over as prime minister and represented the traditional building forces, the game of the two can be said to be you kill me alive.
This power duel broke out in the election of the leader of the Mongolian People's Party at the end of September.
(President of Mongolia Hu Jintao)
At the same time, under the slogan of breaking the monopoly of interests, the youth parliamentarians under the age of 35 and the city intellectuals group in the coalition party defeated Zandhan Shalit with a weak advantage of 52 percent against 48 percent and succeeded in becoming the leader of the party.
In order to reverse the trend, Zandhan Shalit quickly took office as prime minister and instructed the Mongolian Anti-Corruption Commission to conduct an investigation into Amabajaskaran on the grounds of "suspicion of misuse of public funds."In the face of public opinion pressure and the double circumference of administrative investigation, Amabajaskaran was forced to resign as chairman of Congress in mid-October.
But he did not resign, and 48 hours before he resigned, he used the last power of the speaker to urgently convene a special session of the parliament and unite the 61 lawmakers controlled by the "young reformists" to pass the Prime Minister's resignation resolution on the grounds that "the government of Zandhan Shalit suspended foreign-invested rare-earth projects and caused the country to lose $1.2 billion in potential investments". It can be said that in this struggle, the two broke the net at all, and did not let each other take power.Supporters of both sides even broke out in small-scale clashes on the streets of Ulaanbaatar, and the police had to dispatch riot troops to maintain order.
Just when the two factions were in a deadlock of "death and death," Mongolia President Khuzilsukh stepped in, citing the so-called "calculation error." He vetoed the resolution of Congress to remove the Prime Minister, and finally Zaandanshatar was able to stay in office.
He is now in charge, on the one hand, because he himself is from the traditional faction of the Mongolian People's Party, and there is a natural agreement of interest with the conservatives represented by Zandan Shatar; on the other hand, the one-month-long internal struggle has paralyzed the Mongolian governance system, and if it is not timely to save, the opposition may have the opportunity to strengthen its own strength.
Youth Reformists advocate a Third Neighborhood
In fact, the two factions fell into an intense confrontation, the core contradiction is that there are differences in foreign policy.This disagreement erupted completely after the fall of O'Yong Yong, becoming a key pathogen to tear the ruling people's party and paralyze the governance of the country.
Among them, the core support groups of the "Youth Reformists" headed by Ambayasgaran are urban youth in Ulaanbaatar, elites who have returned from overseas studies and small and medium-sized business owners. These groups are dissatisfied with Mongolia's long-term resource curse and dependence on the Chinese and Russian markets.They argue that Mongolia’s trouble stems from monopolies and inefficient governance of traditional interest groups, and therefore propose systematic reforms.
The specific approach is to advocate an external breakthrough. To break this dependence through the “Third Neighbourhood” strategy, they not only support the access of foreign investment in the development of mineral resources, but also actively link the West on specific projects.: For example, promote American companies to participate in deep processing cooperation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, sign the "Memorandum of Rare Earth Cooperation" with Japan, and plan to establish a rare earth separation plant before 2025 to get rid of dependence on China's rare earth processing; The India-Mongolia "Khan Exploration" joint military exercise promoted by the previous Prime Minister Oyunerdan echoed the "third neighbor" strategy from a security perspective. On the surface, it was to improve counter-terrorism capabilities, but in fact it tried to strengthen the relationship with the United States, Japan and India through military cooperation and reduce dependence on the Sino-Russian security system.
In the reform of the political system, the reformist arguments are also closed with foreign policy.They emphasize the weakening of presidential power and strengthening parliamentary functions, on the one hand, dissatisfied with the tendency of President Hussein Hussein to cooperate with China-Russia, and on the other hand, hoping to establish a more in line with Western standards "parliamentary system" through parliamentary-led constitutional amendments to attract aid and investment from European and American countries.
In terms of education, it also promotes English to replace Russian and become the first foreign language in primary and secondary schools, and encourages young people to receive Western values and technical training.
(Zaandanshatar)
The anti-conservatives, represented by Zandán Shaltar, whose power is deeply rooted in the traditional network of Chinese-Russian interests.
They believe that stability comes before change. Mongolia's external debt has reached US$32 billion this year, nearly 40% of which will expire before 2026. China and Russia are the only force that can provide emergency assistance: China has agreed to extend Mongolia's oil debt for five years and invest US$1 billion to upgrade its oil pipeline in western Mongolia; China has committed to providing US$2.5 billion in low-interest loans for Mongolia's road and railway infrastructure through the framework of the "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor".
In terms of foreign policy, conservatives' "equidistant diplomacy" is also a relatively pragmatic risk-avoiding strategy. They are well aware of Mongolia's geographical predicament. Its territory is completely surrounded by China and Russia, and there is no access to the sea. Any alienation from China and Russia may lead to the interruption of trade channels. Therefore, After Zandan Shattar came to power, his first move was to repair border cooperation with China.At the same time, he signed a "New Energy Cooperation Treaty" with Russia, allowing Gazprom to participate in natural gas exploration in eastern Mongolia in exchange for Russia's reduction in energy pricing for Mongolia. This strategy of binding China and Russia has effectively alleviated Mongolia's economic crisis in the short term.
At this stage, although the president has stepped in to retain the current prime minister, political turmoil will continue. In November, the ruling party will hold a plenary meeting to confirm the results of the previous party leader election. By then, the two sides will surely launch a new round of fighting.
Young reformers currently have a majority in parliament, but lack sufficient administrative resources to drive reforms; while conservatives control the government, they face double pressure from economic recession and social discontent. If the two sides fail to reach a consensus on many issues, the country will fall into a long-term political impasse, further weakening its survival space in the clutches of the big powers.
So it is still unknown who will laugh last.