«--[· Preface ·]--»
What China doesn't want, Japan takes the initiative to accept! Gao Shizao sent Trump a meeting gift, and 550 billion yuan would be given as soon as possible?
«--[·Take action in the face of crisis·]--»
Japan’s first female prime minister won the congressional prime minister nomination election, and a bunch of rubbish came to the eye. The Japanese government’s debt scale has broken 12 trillion yen, accounting for more than 250 percent of GDP, and pension shortages in the people’s livelihoods sector, as well as shortages in care resources, need to be resolved.。
The more difficult challenges come from the outside. The White House has long officially announced that Trump will arrive in Japan on October 27 and open a three-day visit. This trip is not a simple alliance show muscle. The earlier Japanese Foreign Ministry sub-secretary ship the stronger has made the way to the United States in advance, establishing a regular consultation mechanism with U.S. deputy secretary of state Landor, the core issues directed to trade and security cooperation.
Trump’s intentions are well known. The president has always hanged “America’s priority” in his mouth and has long been dissatisfied with Japan’s trade deficit. He has repeatedly criticized Japan’s “trade injustice” on social media, accusing Japan of not buying American cars but exporting to the United States.
She openly stated that she would base on the Japan-US alliance, hoping to deepen trust with Trump as soon as possible. Information sources revealed that the Prime Minister’s Office had arranged a special “giveaway” to be formally submitted at the next week’s Japan-US trade and security talks. This gift package is seen as a diplomatic code for the high market “to retreat” and followed by Trump’s “serving well.”
This gift to Trump contained obvious traces of "taking over". The core of the gift package includes three types of products: Ford Motor's F-150 pickup truck, soybeans and liquefied natural gas. Each of them accurately addresses the economic pain points that Trump cares about. Coincidentally, two of them have just been "ignored" by the China market.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China’s imports of soybeans from the United States dropped to zero in September, compared with 1.7 million tons in the same period last year. Chinese buyers shifted their orders to Brazil and Argentina, where imports of soybeans from Brazil grew by 29.9 percent and Argentina grew by 91.5 percent.
Japan stood up at this time. The municipal government of Gao plans to expand the import quota of soybeans in the United States, which is interpreted by the outside world as a "precise rescue". However, the Japanese agricultural community has long complained that the local rice market is already facing protection pressure, and now it has to make room for American soybeans. Many farmers bluntly say that "this is exchanging their own rice bowls for diplomatic face".
The purchase of the Ford F-150 pick-up was even more relentless. The American pick-up was small in the Japanese market, and Japanese consumers prefer economical sedans. But the American automotive industry has been pressuring Japan to open the market, and Trump has repeatedly criticized Japan for high tariffs on U.S. cars. The purchase plan is seen as a "heat reduction fee" for the friction of Japanese-U.S. automotive trade, in exchange for the continuation of tariff preferences.
Liquefied natural gas is a compromise on energy security. As a major energy importer, Japan has been trying to balance energy sources. However, the United States continues to ask allies to increase U.S. energy purchases, after the European Union has been forced to commit to purchasing US$750 billion in U.S. energy. The nature of the Gao Municipal Government's natural gas procurement plan is to choose the latter between energy independence and compromise with the United States.
«--[·550 billion mystery·]--»
In addition to the physical procurement, the Japanese people were more excited by the $55 billion investment pledge.This money was not the high-market first, but the agreement reached by former Prime Minister Shapiro Momo with the United States, Japan by promising to invest in exchange for the U.S. 15% benchmark tariff preference.
Interestingly, Goldman Sachs criticized the deal “unfairly” during the campaign, saying it gave the U.S. most of its returns and even claimed not to rule out renegotiations. But after taking office, her attitude quickly reversed and made it clear that she would abide by the existing agreement.
The Trump administration’s “Big Carrot” strategy has long been effective. The U.S. side has released the “Japan negotiation priority” signal through the Treasury Minister, while the Foreign Investment Commission has reviewed the Japanese steel acquisition case and put pressure on it with economic means. Japan’s Economic Regeneration Minister,赤泽亮, is frankly saying that the real investment in the fifty-five billion represents only 1% to 2%, and the rest is for financing and guarantees, but even so, this money will increase Japan’s fiscal burden.
Opposition from the Japanese people continues to rise. Many netizens complained on social platforms about "using taxpayers 'money to give gifts to the United States." Opposition parties even seized on the handle and accused Gao Shi of "sacrificing national interests in exchange for political capital." However, the Takashi city government seems to have no choice. Once it refuses to fulfill its promise, the United States may restart high tariffs, which will be a fatal blow to the export-dependent Japanese economy.
Even more embarrassingly, the U.S. claims to receive 90% of the profit from this investment, far beyond the normal trade-sharing ratio. This unfair terms make $55 billion more like a “protective fee” rather than a normal economic and trade cooperation.
“The Alliance Game.”
highly Shi Zaomiao's "gift-giving diplomacy" contains deeper political calculations. She has always regarded herself as the "successor" of Shinzo Abe, and she regarded the line of strengthening the Japan-US alliance during Abe's period as the norm. In the security field, Gao Shi, as a hawk, advocates amending the pacifist constitution and upgrading the Self-Defense Force to a "National Defense Force." These ideas require the support of the United States。
Trump knows this well. During this visit to Japan, he not only wants economic interests, but also wants to tie Japan in the security field. The two sides have confirmed that they will promote the multilateral framework including South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and India, strengthen the "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy, and point the finger at China. The Gao municipal government hopes to give gifts in exchange for the acquiescence of the United States to its line of amending the constitution and strengthening the army.
But this gamble is extremely risky. The ruling roots of Gao City are basically fragile. Her position as president is the result of compromise among various factions in the party. The ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party has lost the majority of seats in both houses of Congress and has become a "minority ruling party". If people's dissatisfaction with "gift-giving" ferments, it may directly shake their ruling position.
There is a temperature difference between the demands of Japan and the United States in the security field. The discussion of "nuclear sharing" advocated by Takashi touches the sensitive nerves of East Asia and may trigger a regional arms race, which is contrary to the idea of the United States to "strengthen Japan's military power in a controllable manner". Trump prefers Japan to become an "auxiliary tool" of American strategy, rather than a "military partner" out of control.
Economic pressure has reached the critical point. The Japanese government debt rate is already the highest in the world, the new procurement and investment in the United States will further squeeze out the financial space. The high market promised price regulation, people's livelihoods improvement and other policies are likely to become blank because of the shortage of funds. There is an analysis pointing out that if this "gift" cannot be exchanged for substantial return, the high market will probably become another "short-life prime minister".
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
Trump’s special plane is about to land in Tokyo. Whether the gift package prepared by the high market early morning will “serve well” the guest, or will be the last snail to overwhelm himself, the answer will soon be revealed. But it can be sure that this seemingly simple “diplomatic gift” has long made Japan pay an estimated price.