On October 22, local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent openly said that if China does not make concessions on rare-earth exports, the United States will prepare a series of countermeasures, from software to high-tech equipment may be included in the new export control list.
According to Reuters news, the so-called “software-driven product export control” prepared by the United States, the scope includes key technology areas such as laptops, aircraft engines, chip manufacturing equipment. Simply put, it is to use the “export restriction” way to fight Chinese enterprises and “find a balance” for their rare-earth policies.
The current practice of the United States is actually a typical "forerunner". Before the negotiations started, he made a few tough remarks in order to make the atmosphere at the negotiating table favorable to him. Besent obviously hopes to use this method to force China to make concessions at the talks in Malaysia.
However, China's attitude this time is very clear. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce has stated that China-US economic and trade consultations will be held in Malaysia from October 24 to 27. The two sides will hold dialogue on important issues. The position is "equality, respect and mutual benefit" and no word of compromise is mentioned. This means that China does not intend to change its established policy just because of the US's "shouting".
Bescent also repeated the old argument in the interview, saying that China's rare earth export control is an act "against the whole world" and that this practice is "unfeasible and unacceptable". But the fact is that rare earth export control is China's policy adjustment to maintain resource security within a reasonable range. China is the world's largest supplier of rare earths, and it has long suffered from the problems of low rare earth export prices and heavy environmental burdens. In recent years, China has gradually tightened export management, mainly to improve resource utilization efficiency, protect the ecological environment, and at the same time allow high value-added industries to stay in China for development. This is a decision within the scope of sovereignty.
In this case, if the U.S. side really wants to talk, it should not enter with a threatening tone. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Sword has long said very clearly: China's position consistently, the U.S. side shouts to talk, threaten, raise taxes, list, this is not the right way to negotiate.
Looking at the location of this consultation, it also has some implications. The first four rounds of China-US economic and trade consultations were held in Europe: Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Spain, but this time they were held in Malaysia. Asia's geographical location makes it more convenient and more "neutral" for both sides. In particular, Malaysia has good relations with China and the United States. This arrangement can make the negotiation atmosphere a little calmer. More importantly, Trump himself will also appear near Malaysia. This coincidence led to widespread speculation that he might appear at the venue temporarily to create a dramatic effect, as he did in Japan back then.
For China, this Malaysia negotiation is not only a test, but also an opportunity to test the sincerity of both sides. China's strategy is to play steadily, not to lose its temper first, and not to give in easily. The statements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce have always been calm, emphasizing "equal consultation" and "common interests", and have not been taken away by the threat rhythm of the United States. After all, the economic size and dependence between China and the United States are too high, and no one can really cut it off.
As for whether this negotiation will be successful, it depends largely on whether the U.S. can really let go of its political gestures. If you say “cooperate” and shout “re-attack” on the one hand, then you are destined to talk about nothing. Bessent’s so-called “rare-earth negotiations fail to retaliate” is more like a psychological war. In fact, the U.S. is still very dependent on China now, whether it is rare-earth, lithium batteries, or new energy vehicle support materials, can not be separated from the Chinese supply chain. The so-called “re-attack” sounds like a deterrent, but in actual execution, the U.S. has not a lot of effective brands to fight.
It can be said that before this negotiation even started, Besant's threat has already cast a shadow over it. China will not be intimidated or eager for success. China is now more confident to deal with various external pressures. Rare earths are only one of the incisions. The bigger game lies in whether China and the United States can find a new balance point in the future. Negotiations in Malaysia may not solve the problem once and for all, but they can at least test whether the two sides are still willing to sit down and communicate.
Generally speaking, this negotiation in Malaysia is not destined to be easy, but it is still important. Because it will determine the tone of interaction between China and the United States in the next stage, and may also determine whether Trump can formally meet with Chinese leaders at the APEC meeting in South Korea. The world is watching whether the United States really wants to talk or just wants to play the familiar drama again.
Before China and the United States even sat at the negotiating table, Besent made harsh remarks, but China will not change direction because of these voices. The rare earth policy will not be changed for anyone, nor will it be loosened due to external pressure. In this game, China does not want to confront anyone, but to protect its own resources, security and development space. Strength and sincerity are also emphasized at the negotiating table. Who really wants to solve the problem and who just wants to fight the public affairs will be clear in the next few days.