According to Reuters, the preliminary data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics recently showed that in the first eight months of this year, trade volume between Germany and China exceeded trade volume between Germany and the United States, and China re-established itself as Germany¡¯s largest trading partner. President of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, Dirk Jandura, said that U.S. tariff policy is a major reason for the decline in Germany¡¯s exports to the United States.

Tariffs affect German exports to the United States

According to Reuters calculations, the trade volume between Germany and China from January to August reached 163.4 billion euros, while the trade volume with the United States was 162.8 billion euros. Analysts attribute the change to the tariff policy implemented by the United States. Yandula said U.S. demand for traditional German exports such as automobiles, machinery and chemicals has declined.

DPA previously reported that the aggressive tariff policy of the US government is increasingly becoming a burden on Germany's export-oriented economy. According to Reuters, in the first eight months of this year, German exports to the United States fell by 7.4% year-on-year to 99.6 billion euros. Exports to the United States fell 23.5% year-on-year in August. According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office, this is the fifth consecutive month of month-on-month decline. According to the analysis, the decline in August indicates that this trend is accelerating.

From the perspective of specific fields, data previously released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that during April and May this year, German car exports to the United States fell by 23.5% year-on-year, because the United States imposed additional tariffs of up to 25% on imported cars since the beginning of April. Pessimism is also currently dominating within the mechanical engineering industry. In early October, DPA quoted the latest survey results released by the German Federation of Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Industry as saying that about 1/3 of the 877 enterprises surveyed rated the current situation as "bad" or "very bad". This may continue the trend of layoffs in the industry.

Germany's Handelsblatt reported on the 22nd that although the export of pharmaceutical products, information technology and electronic products increased slightly in the first eight months, it still could not make up for the losses of core industries.

¡°There are strong and complementary economic and trade relations between China and Germany.¡±

According to official data released by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China became Germany¡¯s second largest trading partner in 2024 with a trade volume of around €246 billion, while between 2016 and 2023, China has been Germany¡¯s largest trading partner. In the first eight months of this year, Germany¡¯s imports from China increased by 8.3% to €108.8 billion. A German TV channel recently that China¡¯s exports to Germany increased by 10.9% in September.

However, some analysts hold a negative attitude towards the growth of Germany's imports from China, believing that this has increased Germany's dependence on China. However, some experts believe that there are multiple influencing factors behind this. German TV quoted Chinese and German traders as saying that compared with Germany's imports from China, China's fewer imports from Germany are related to the deep localization of German enterprises in China and the realization of local production and marketing. "This phenomenon is prevalent in all industries, especially in the fields of automobile and machinery manufacturing." In response to voices within the EU that want to respond to competition by raising tariffs, DPA quoted Yandula as saying that high tariffs will push up product prices and ultimately harm the interests of all parties. He called: "Europe needs investment resilience and diversification, rather than building internal market barriers."

Sun Keqin, a researcher at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on the 23rd that Sino-German economic and trade relations have developed rapidly and reached the current huge scale, indicating that there are strong complementarities and close ties between the two sides. He said that China and Germany are highly complementary in terms of market, capital, research and development, raw materials and industrial chain, especially in the fields of automobiles, mechanical equipment, chemical medicine, electronics and electricity. In the future, the traditional field will remain an important field of Sino-German economic and trade cooperation due to the strong industrial chain cooperation. At the same time, the two countries have broad prospects for cooperation in green transformation, service trade, intelligent manufacturing, digitalization and other fields.

No signs of sustainable improvement appear

The latest survey by Munich-based Ifo Institute in September showed that the confidence of Germany's export industry in the outlook was significantly optimistic compared with August. "However, signs of a sustainable turnaround are yet to emerge," said Klaus Vollabe, head of the agency's investigation. According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, Europe's largest economy exported 129.7 billion euros of goods overseas in August, down 0.5% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year.

Germany¡¯s economic output has continued to shrink over the past two years, with the federal government and leading economic research institutions forecasting economic growth of only 0.2% this year.While the forecast for next year is relatively optimistic and GDP is expected to grow by 1.3%, this economic recovery hopes will not rely on overseas demand, but will drive domestic demand from billions of investments in infrastructure such as roads and defense.

Sun Keqin analyzed that there are many reasons for the weakness of Germany's economy, including the decline in output in energy-intensive industries caused by the high energy costs caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the intensification of international competition, which has weakened the comparative advantage of German companies, and the U.S. trade Protectionist policies pose a serious threat to Germany as an open economy. Sun Keqin further stated that if the German economy wants to get rid of the dilemma of weak development under internal and external pressure, it must pay attention to economic and trade relations with China. This year's Sino-German trade volume may exceed the German-US trade volume, which shows the complementarity and resilience of Sino-German economic and trade relations. In the future, to ensure the healthy development of Sino-German economic and trade relations, geopolitical interference must be prevented.