Preliminary

The international situation suddenly muted, the originally planned US-Russian heads of state meeting was cancelled, the Western multinational coalition released a loud word on Russia, the global stock market response fell, this geopolitical game that affected the world's nerves, is entering a new dangerous phase.

Western Joint Statement: Surface screams for ceasefire, actually sending ammunition to Ukraine

On October 23, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union suddenly issued a joint statement appearing to call on Russia for an immediate cease-fire, but the words hid the doorway.

¡°Ukraine must be in the strongest position before, during and after any ceasefire agreement,¡± the statement said, translated as ¡°a ceasefire can be talked about, but Ukraine must be prepared to fight again.¡±

Even worse, the West claims to ¡°increase pressure on the Russian economy and industry¡± and is even preparing to use the frozen $300 billion of Russian overseas assets.

This is tantamount to directly confiscating Russian money stored in the West for use by Ukraine. This kind of operation is quite rare in international law. It can be seen that the West is determined to do a heavy job this time.

Russia rejects ¡°alliance under the city¡±

In the face of the Western combination, Russia¡¯s response was quite tough, and Kremlin spokesman Peskov made it clear that ¡°an armistice is not possible under current conditions.¡±

This is clear-the West wants Ukraine to fight itself with its own money. How can Russia accept this kind of ceasefire agreement?

Russia¡¯s substrate comes from the actual zone of control on the battlefield, where the Russian military currently controls about 18% of the territory of Ukraine, at this time a ceasefire is equivalent to recognizing the status quo.

For Russia, the most unacceptable thing is that the West arms Ukraine with frozen Russian assets, which touches the Russian bottom line.

Trump suddenly changed rumors, meeting in Budapest

Most surprisingly, Trump suddenly announced the cancellation of a meeting with Putin in Budapest, which was originally hopeful, because Hungary is a relatively moderate country within the EU to Russia, suitable for mediation.

But Trump's temporary rumor has poured cold water into the diplomatic settlement of the conflict, analyzing that Trump may face domestic pressure, the U.S. election is approaching, and tough Russia is politically correct.

Coupled with the West¡¯s recent joint statement, the meeting with Putin is indeed timely, but it also means that hopes for a short-term settlement of the conflict through diplomatic means are less.

The global market is frightened by cold sweat, A-shares are difficult to solve

The international tension, the first reaction is the global stock market, the European and American stock market reaction dropped, the index fell above 1%, the German DAX index fell 2%, and today the A stock also shake down, the index struggles near 3,100 points.

The markets are most concerned about two things: one is that the escalation of conflict has led to a surge in energy prices, and the other is that the Western confiscation of Russian assets has created a dangerous precedent, especially the latter, which means that the presence of Western foreign exchange reserves in other countries is not safe.

This concern prompted the flow of funds to gold, U.S. dollars and other shelter assets, for A-share investors, in addition to geopolitical risks, also digest domestic economic data, the CPI in September increased by 0.8%, showing that demand is still weak, domestic and foreign factors overlap, and the market may continue to shake in the short term.

How powerful is the West¡¯s ¡°financial nuclear bomb¡±?

The West plans to use Russian frozen assets, which can be referred to as a ¡°financial nuclear bomb¡±, but there are currently disagreements about the concrete operation: the United States advocates direct confiscation, while the EU tends to only give Ukraine interest on the assets generated, about 3 billion euros annually.

The consequences of the direct confiscation are severe, which will not only undermine the confidence of countries in the dollar in euro assets, but could also drive the Gulf countries to accelerate the diversification of foreign exchange reserves.

In fact, in the first eight months of this year, the world¡¯s central bank purchases of gold increased by 14 percent, which is behind the trend of dollarization.

The more realistic problem is that most of these assets are held by European nations, and if Russia retaliates and cuts off surplus gas supplies to Europe, this winter the days of Europeans will be sad, this killing a thousand self-harm eight hundred tricks, carrying out a heavy barrier.

conclusion

The crisis is evolving into a long-term consumption war, with victory for Russia to overcome Western sanctions; continued military aid for Ukraine crucial; and solidarity for Europe and the United States to avoid economic damage.

The people who suffer the most, the displaced people of Ukraine, the rising prices of the Russian people, the grievances of European consumers over their energy bills, this unavoidable conflict, once again proves the truth: the game of great powers has no winners, and peace is the greatest common interest.