China has just tightened the rules on rare-earth exports, and the United States has a sharp eye on it. In less than two weeks, the Trump administration began to spread rumors that it would restrict the export of products "containing American software" to China, and everything from notebooks to jet engines could be affected.

This is not a continuation of trade friction, but the beginning of the ¡°software cold war.¡± but the question is, can this trick really counter China?

The United States is making another bad move

China's Ministry of Commerce suddenly issued new regulations to implement export controls on rare-earth-related technologies. Note that this time it is not a pipe mine, but a combination of technology, carriers, recycling and packaging pipe.

You want to talk about rare-earth raw materials, but you want to "steal technology", there is no door.

Don't look at this announcement in just a few paragraphs, but it seems like a "technical bomb" has been dropped in the heart of the earth's manufacturing industry.

Because it is rare earth, not just a mine, it is the ¡°invisible blood¡± of chips, missiles, electric vehicles, motors, warplanes, radars.

China controls more than 70% of the world's rare earth refining capabilities.

Two weeks later, the United States panicked, and the Sino-US talks counted down. Reuters exclusively broke the news on the 23rd that the Trump administration was considering restricting the export of products containing American software to China.

From computers, phones, to jet engines, General is on the list. This move, which seems to be revenge, is actually shooting birds indiscriminately.

Why the software?

Because rare earths are China's hard power, while software is the "moat of rules" of the United States.

You don't have to buy my chips, but you can't get around my operating system, development tools, algorithm engines. This is the "invisible tariff" of American hegemony.

But if even this layer of technology is used as a weapon, the United States itself will have to be hit with a knife.

Industry experts have calculated that 70% of products worldwide use some kind of American software at the design stage.

Do you want a total blockade?

Ask Boeing, Apple, General Electric, and Lockheed Martin first, how many ribs are left in their supply chains?

Some American analysts said bluntly: "The biggest problem with this proposal is not that it cannot hit China, but that it cannot hit it, and it may blow itself up."

China has been behind.

From tariffs to supply cuts, to "software blockades", Washington has "upgraded itself" all the way, but every time, it is more empty than the last time.

In 2018, tariffs were imposed, China overtaken; in 2020, the supply of chips, China launched a domestic replacement; in 2023 restricted AI computing power, China countered open source architecture; in 2025, the turn of rare earth, the United States did not expect that China was not "mineral", but "technology".

This is the bottom line of the Chinese-American game: the United States is in the blood line, China is in the armor.

The former relies on consumption to support the scene, while the latter relies on accumulation to change cards.

Don't forget, this "new rare earth regulation" is actually a chess game laid by China a long time ago.

In the past three years, China has accelerated the integration of rare-earth industries in the country: the formation of a "rare-earth giant" enterprise group; increase the recycling utilization rate;

Establish an export licensing system.

In other words, China is not making a temporary decision to "stuck others", but is setting rules for its own technological sovereignty.

If you have the advantage of rules, I will build institutional guardrails. If you engage in long-arm jurisdiction, I will draw a red line.

This is not merely revenge, but a rediscovery of the world that technological sovereignty is also a resource sovereignty.

The logic of the United States is "whoever disobeys will cut off the supply". China's logic is "whoever wants to cooperate will win-win".

The former relies on threats, the latter on the system.

In recent years, the U.S. has introduced the Chip Act, the Inflation Cutting Act, which has stolen hundreds of billions of dollars, but capital does not buy bills.

Because the risks are too high, subsidies are short-term and the future is unstable.

Take rare earths as an example. Although the Mountain Pass mine in the United States resumed production last year, the refining process still needs to be sent to China for completion.

Instead, China¡¯s rare-earth upstream and downstream are already closed in industry.

A piece of rare earth mineral, from Inner Mongolia, to Ningbo refinement, then to Shenzhen to magnetize, and then to Biady engine, the entire chain is domestic.

That is the bottom.

The direction of history is quietly turned.

When the United States is making trouble, its allies are actually the most anxious.

The front foot of the EU just called for "de-Chinaization", but the back foot admitted in its own report, "Without China's rare earths, even wind turbine blades cannot be turned."

Toyota and Panama's motor magnets are almost all used in rare earth in China; they overestimate: to switch completely to Australia or the United States, the cost is at least three times higher.

Will the U.S. block the G7 software?

Europe is clear in its mind: the United States loses the trick, and they pay.

This game has transcended "goods and tariffs".

In the future, the competition will be about who sets standards and who dominates the rules.

The essence of the new rules on rare earth exports is telling the world that China is no longer just a world factory, but also a shaper of supply chain rules. If the United States politicizes the rules of "American-containing software", it is using the inertia of the old system to block the rise of the new system.

It may seem tough, but it is actually guilty. A truly strong country is not afraid of other countries controlling resources; what is afraid of is that the rules will no longer be written by itself.

Someone asked: Is China "tit for tat" this time?

It is not revenge, it is correction.

In the past few decades, China has traded the market for technology; the result is a technology blockade.

Today, China will use technology to change the rules; in return, it will be strategic security.

Trump can¡¯t sit down because he finally realizes that China is not just the maker of the world, but the world¡¯s ¡°rule maker.¡±

History never makes a noise, but it always makes a low noise at the corner.

The voice this time comes from rare earths, but also from China that no longer bows its head and dares to draw lines.# Go to the headlines and talk about hot topics #