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Knowing that you can't take it, you still have to fight; Where you can't keep it, you have to keep it; If you can't hold on to the situation, you have to carry it hard. October, The Ukrainian battlefield is still burning, the artillery continues in the east direction, the Russian troops advance hard, the frontline seems to be crucified.This battle has been fought for three years and eight months, but Russia has not stopped, nor can it stop.
Not because you can win, but because you can't quit. Russian troops will gather as early as the end of 2021. At that time, it was said to be a military exercise. With a satellite shot, hundreds of thousands of soldiers, tanks, and missiles were placed in formation. Outsiders thought it was a bluff, but they did not expect that in February 2022, Putin would directly order an attack. The goal is clear-- Attacking Ukraine also warned the West.
Unfortunately, the expected blitz did not turn out. The first stage of encirclement of Kiev failed, supplies could not keep up, and air force support was not in place. The Ukrainian army was able to withstand it not by numbers, but by the high-precision equipment and tactical support provided by the West. In the third year of fighting, the two sides have become a tough battle for resources and will.
Russia now controls about 18% of Ukraine’s territory.According to the statistics of the US think tank CSIS, since 2024, the Russian military in the battlefield "recovery progress" combined less than 1% of the total area of Ukraine.
The casualties of the Russian army were not small, especially the armored forces. Middle this year, Russian armored vehicles.The number of damaged vehicles exceeded 3700. These cars were not built by burning money, they were built by burning people. People can't hurt, the car can't repair, and the fighting force naturally decreases.
In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. Ukraine became independent, but in the eyes of Russia, this neighborhood was the back yard of its own home, a piece of heart that was separated by the old home. Not only feelings, but also geography. The Russian army's highest levels have always regarded Ukraine as a buffer zone. If the West pulls Ukraine over, it will be tantamount to laying mines at the gates of Moscow.
Since the beginning of 1999, NATO begins eastward expansionPoland, Hungary, the Czech Republic first joined, and later the three Baltic states also joined.This step-by-step has doubled Russian pressure.
In 2014, Ukraine's political situation suddenly came to power, and pro-Western came to power. Putin reacted quickly, annexed Crimea to Russia, and supported the independence forces of Donbass. That year, Ukraine completely fell to the West. Russia concludes: If it doesn't take action, it will be too late。
In 2021, the situation once again approached the red line. Ukraine has begun to speed up the process of joining NATO, and NATO has also accelerated the deployment of equipment. Putin knows that if NATO really deploys missiles to Ukraine, it will only take a few minutes from launch to hit Moscow. That's not strategic oppression, that's extinction.
In December 2021, Russia proposed a draft security agreement: NATO should stop expanding eastward and be not allowed to deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine. The West doesn't care. A few months later, Russia took action. From the beginning, this war was not about taking Ukraine, but about preventing Ukraine from becoming part of NATO. Not for expansion, but for interception.
The U.S. supplies F-16 fighters, Hamas rockets, Britain sends ammunition, and Poland, Romania and Lithuania publicly expressed support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO in June. This is not a vague attitude, but a clear statement.。 Putin understands the language.
He understood that this was not a war in Ukraine, but a contest between Russia and NATO. But can the economy hold on? In June, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Russia's economic growth, leaving only 0.6%.
During the three years of the war, Russia’s financial spending was heavy.The West restricted oil prices, frozen foreign currencies, and kicked out the SWIFT system, which is equivalent to pulling Russia out of the global economic circle.
Military expenditure is only one end, and domestic pressure is more difficult. Rising prices, stagnant wages, young people avoiding conscription, all these things come one after another. The Wagner mutiny in 2023 was not an accident, but an outburst of emotions. Grassroots dissatisfaction, military instability, and political tension.
Then why not withdraw? Because once you withdraw, it will be a total failure. Russia knows that it can't afford this battle, but it is even more afraid of losing. Losing Ukraine may not be a geographical loss, but a collapse of the system and a shaken regime.
History is placed there. In 1812, Napoleon entered Moscow; in 1941, Hitler repeated the old way. Putin was not unremembered, he too remembered. Would rather be trapped in Ukraine than expose Moscow to NATO firepower.
Therefore, Russia will not retreat even if it is a city that cannot be won, a position that cannot be held, and a battlefield where there is no chance of winning. In their view, if they don't press on, they will lose more completely. This kind of thinking is not military rationality, but geopolitical instinct.
The war is now not just a battle for the territory, but also a test of the right to speak.Russia, with the lives of soldiers, is telling the world that this land cannot be handed out. Even if you can't get it, you can't let others take it.
This is Putin's reason for pressing the border. It sounds irrational, but it fits their logic. This battle in Russia is destined to be difficult to win. But they believe that some battles are not to win, but to not lose.
References:
"AFP takes stock of ten critical moments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict" February 25, 2025 Source: Xinhuanet
The Time Line on the Wagner Incident, June 25, 2023 Source: Xinhua