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Mindanao, 94,630 square kilometers, 27 million people. The second largest island in the Philippines, larger than the Netherlands, has recently become independent.
In early 2024, when former Philippine President Duterte openly declared that he wanted to promote the island’s independence, the Philippine government hurried and threatened to use force to repress it.
You think it's just a politician's battle of mouth? it's wrong, once this island is truly independent, the South China Sea pattern has to be re-washed.
Rich in resources, but unable to support one's own people
Speak a number first, and you will understand how important this island is.
Eight of the top ten agricultural products exported by the Philippines come from MindanaoBananas, coconut oil, and Phoenix are all foreign currencies contributed by the island.The underground is also buried in gold mines, iron mines, uranium mines, and coal, accounting for 14% of the Philippine GDP.
How are the locals doing in such a rich place?
In the province of Kagan, there is the Phoenix Farm of Delmont, and a banana garden of Dover nearby. Large plantations, foreign equity holdings, profit flowing out. What do local farmers do? hired workers, temporary workers, working today, and not allowed tomorrow.
This is the dilemma of Mindanao. The resources are here, but the money is not here.
You’re guarding Florida, but you have to watch someone else’s face eat.。
What’s worse, most of these agricultural profits flows to Manila. The central government takes taxes, invests in infrastructure, builds roads and schools, and prioritizes those on the island of Liu Song.
Davao, Zamboanga, Cagayan de Oro, these are the only decent cities on the island. In more places, indigenous people still live in the mountains and forests.
Someone has an account.If the Old Isles were independent, these resources would not be shared with Manila.
Alvarez, Duterte's ally and a member of the Northern Davao State Representative, publicly said that Singapore is developing well despite its small area and few resources. Mumbai is much better than Singapore, so why not independent?
This word moved a lot of people.
Immigrants changed everything.
The old island of Mumbai was originally a place for Muslims.
In the 15th century, the Arabs from Sumatra established the Sultanate of Suru and converted to Islam. After the arrival of the Spanish colonists, the northern island of Liu Song was Catholicized, and the southern island of Mumbai hasined Muslim traditions.
Two religions, two cultures, coexist in one country。
After the independence of the Philippines, the government of Manila studied the United States and engaged in the "integration plan".
From 1903 to 1939, nearly 700,000 immigrants moved to Mindanao from the north. How many do you think? The back is more exaggerated.
Between 1948 and 1960, the number of migrants reached 1.25 million.。
What is this concept? Mindanao's population growth rate reached 87%, compared with the national average of 41%, more than doubling.
Immigration brings not only changes in population numbers, The war on land has begun since then.。
Catholics from the north, holding the government-approved land, directly occupy the land of the indigenous peoples. Where Muslim ancestors lived, overnight became others, can you say do not rush?
By 1970, Catholics outnumber Muslims。
Now the data is more intuitive. The entire island has a population of 25 million, Muslims less than 30 percent, and Catholics account for 60.9 percent.
Koda Bato, Rakhine, Davos, Trubai, which were predominantly Muslim 50 years ago, are now Catholics.
You become a foreigner in your own land, can you understand this feeling?
The consequences of immigration policy are not simply demographic structural changes; it creates an unresolved contradiction: religious conflict, land dispute, cultural identity crisis, all mixed together.
Fifty years of armed struggle
On the night of March 19, 1968, something happened.
The Jabbida Massacre.
The Philippine army recruited a group of Muslim new soldiers, named "Jabida," the name of a beautiful woman in the Muslim legend.
More than 100 people were sent to Coreshado Island in Manila Bay for training. While training, the recruits found that something was wrong. The real purpose of this mission was to seize the disputed Sabah region between the Philippines and Malaysia.
Attack your Muslim brothers? The recruits refused。
As a result of the collective execution, only one man escaped and brought the news out.
This incident ignited the anger in Mindanao.
In 1969, Philippine University lecturer Nu Misoari founded the Molo National Liberation Front. Establishing an independent Islamic state in Mindanao。
The armed conflict lasted more than 20 years and killed 120,000 people.
In 1978, the Molo-Islamic Liberation Front split from the Molo-National Liberation Front, led by the cleric Hassan, a more radical organization with 12,500 armed members.
Both organizations want to be independent, but with different routes。
The Molo National Liberation Front was subsequently softened.In 1987, a referendum was held in the south of the Philippines, establishing a former Muslim autonomous region in Mumbai, where the presidency of Missouri was deemed to give some autonomy.
In 1996, the Molo National Liberation Front and the government signed a peace agreement. Some of the armed personnel accepted, and partly disapproved, joined the Molo Islamic Liberation Front.
In the following days, stop and stop。
In 2001, the Moloy Islamic Liberation Front and the government reached a framework peace agreement.In 2012, the Philippine government agreed to establish an Islamic "substate" in the ancient region of Mormon.In 2014, the two sides signed a comprehensive peace agreement, promising a phased disarmament.
In 2015, another conflict broke out and 43 policemen died.
In 2019, the Organization Act of the Old Muslim State of Samoa was finally implemented and Murat became Chief Minister of the Transitional Agency of Samoa. From leader of an armed group to chief minister of the autonomous region。
This road has been 50 years.
Armed struggle brought autonomy and a certain political status. Independence was not achieved, a compromise was reached。
The card Duterte played
Late night on January 31, 2024, in Davos.
Duterte holds press conference to promote independence on Old Island of Mumbai。
It is not to say that he made it clear that he did not engage in a bloody rebellion, came in accordance with the United Nations procedures, gathered signatures, held a referendum, and let the people decide for themselves.
According to the news, Manila has exploded.
On February 4, Philippine National Security Advisor Edward Arnault issued a statement: The government will not hesitate to use force to repress and prevent any attempt to divide a country.。
This is the threat and the bottom line.
Why did Duterte play this card?
He fell out with the current president, Marcos Jr.。
In the 2022 general election, Duterte's daughter Sarah and Marcos jointly nominated to form the "Unity Team", winning a overwhelming victory, two years later the alliance broke up.
There are two reasons.
First, the issue of confidential funds.Marcos’ parliamentary allies have been struggling to Sarajevo, questioning the use of the funds. Second, foreign policy.Marcos changed the approach of the Duterte period, completely turned to the United States, and continued to provoke on the South China Sea issue.
What does Duterte think? During my six-year term of office, I finally had a good relationship with my neighbors and developed the economy. You took office for less than two years, and I ruined everything.
The railway project in Mindanao was originally planned to cooperate with China, but it was put on hold after Marcos took office. Local development was affected and public grievances arose.
Alvarez has publicly warned Marcos not to provoke in the South China Sea and to focus on domestic affairs. If Manila continues to be belligerent, Mindanao should consider independence。
Duterte listened. His base camp is Mindanao, the mayor of Davao is his eldest son, the vice president is his daughter, and the family power has been entrenched in the local area for decades.
This independence movement smells a bit of political threat.。
Don't you Marcos want to amend the constitution? I will promote the independence of Mindanao, and you will do it as you please.
As a result, 53 local MPs on Mumbai have collectively voiced their opposition to independence, and the Philippine military and police have made clear that they are opposed to Marcos.
Duterte lost this time.。
The referendum on independence didn't get done, and the momentum didn't rise.
What really concerns China is not the political farce itself, but the geopolitical considerations behind it.
The Old Island is too sensitive, just on the west side of the South China Sea.。
What would happen if the island was truly independent? First, the strategic position of the Philippines in the South China Sea greatly discounted. Second, the newly independent country, inevitably seeking external support.Who are you looking for? the U.S. or any other country?
Third, Mindanao after independence may become a new conflict point between the Islamic world and the Christian world.Southeast Asia is inherently complex. Add another variable and the entire region will follow suit.
Fourth, for China, the South China Sea pattern will be more complex.More than one country, more than one variable.
So you see, why are China and the Philippines nervous about this matter。
The Philippines is nervous because the country may be divided. China is nervous because there may be one more uncertainty in the South China Sea.
Independence for Mindanao currently seems unlikely. Fifty-three members opposed it, the military police sided with Marcos, and public opinion did not completely tilt towards independence. Duterte's political chips were played out but did not produce the expected results.
This independence movement is more like a political game than a real separatist action。
What is really worth thinking about is the deep contradictions exposed by this island. Resource outflow, unfair distribution of benefits, religious and cultural conflicts, and imbalance of population structure. If these problems are not solved, the next Duterte will make a fuss about independence.
What can the Philippine government do? Give Mindanao more autonomy? Invest more development funds? Or continue to use force to deter?
History tells us that suppression cannot solve the fundamental problem。
Fifty years of armed conflict have killed 120,000 people, in exchange for compromise and autonomy. If the Philippine government does not fundamentally solve the development problems of Mindanao and unbalanced the distribution of regional benefits, the voice of independence will not disappear.
27 million inhabitants, 94630 square kilometers, which is not a small number, The fate of an island affects the nerves of the entire South China Sea。
References:
Reuters, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 2024 reported: Duterte threatened to promote Mindanao independence, and the Philippine government vowed to suppress it with force
Observers Network, February 5, 2024: contradictions white-heated!Dutertal threatened to promote the "independence" of the old island of Mumbai, and the Philippine government vowed "forced repression"
Terrorist attacks continue, why the south of the Philippines has a tendency to independence?