The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for three and a half years, and Trump, who threatened to end the conflict as soon as he took office, is helpless about this conflict. At present, all parties are still in a stalemate. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Hungary, and Zelensky has also expressed his willingness to meet. It remains to be seen how the situation will eventually develop.
But the Belarusian side, deeply affected by this conflict, has exhausted its patience.
Recently, it was revealed by the European Belarus has "put aside" Russia and proposed to EU countries separately to start negotiations on the normalization of relations.
(Lukashenko)
EU diplomats revealed that starting at the end of September, The Belarusian embassy in Paris sent emails to delegations from several countries asking them to meet with the Belarusian ambassador.Now, several European diplomats have agreed to the meeting, and according to them, the signal Belarusian side sent to them is that Belarus is working to get out of political isolation and will help solve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while also willing to start negotiations on European security issues.
Regarding this news, the Belarusian Embassy also confirmed, saying that they did send a request letter for a meeting, but also emphasized that this was "standard diplomatic practice."
After Trump came to power, the U.S. side actively eased relations with Russia and Belarus, which allowed Lukashenko to see the opportunity, so after several rounds of contacts with the U.S. side, and even after the head of the head, the Belarusian side actively released goodwill, released 52 political prisoners, thereby gaining Trump's recognition.
Lukashenko once bluntly stated that his primary goal is still the United States to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash and restore the country's use of Baltic Sea ports to transport potash. Potash fertilizer is an important source of income for Belarus. These two roads are blocked, which will have a serious impact on Belarus's economy. Now it is taking the initiative to strengthen ties with European countries, which is ultimately for this: Hopefully Europe will ease sanctions and help solve its own economic difficulties.
From Lukashenko’s point of view, this is actually the option that is most in the interests of the country.
In the past, the US-European extreme restrictions have had a significant impact on the economy of Belarus, the country is under increased inflation pressure, fragmentation of the export market and other problems. So seeking to ease the relationship with European countries, is the country's economic trouble, access to financing and trade opportunities a big pragmatic move. The data show that the news of the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarus airlines has allowed the share price of Belarusian related airlines and logistics companies to increase by an average of 6.8% in two days.
The Russian negotiations
This geo-reality, coupled with Belarus’ location between Russia and Europe, also determines its diplomatic need to maintain a certain balance between the East and the West, so even while strengthening relations with the Russian alliance, Belarus needs to improve its relations with the West, so as to ease its international isolation and at the same time strive for greater space for itself.
In this Russia-Ukraine conflict, Belarus cannot stay out of it. By communicating with Europe, Belarus can also play the role of mediator between the two, thereby enhancing its international image and striving for a more favorable position for itself in future geopolitical negotiations.
More importantly, The current international situation has determined that Russia is likely to close its eyes on this issue and will not be very opposed.
On the one hand, Russia and Belarus have already signed the Treaty on Security within the Union State Framework, which clearly states that if someone dares to attack one of the countries, it is equivalent to attacking two countries, the two countries must counteract together. Peskov has also publicly said that under the framework of the Union of Belarus, Russia has the obligation to ensure the security of its ally Belarus. This "you have a problem I help you, I have a problem you stand me" iron relationship, so that Russia's small actions against Belarus are very tolerant, after all, Belarus is only talking about European economy, talks for reconciliation, does not mess with Russia, nor does it harm Russian security interests, Russia does not commit because of this matter with its ally red face.
On the other hand, Russia itself is also deeply affected by the conflict, and Western sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to breathe. In certain specific circumstances, it is possible to send signals indirectly to Russia or to spy false.
The Russian President Putin
The next situation is likely to be a long negotiation: Belarus will talk a little with the EU on conditions, for example, first promise some of the EU's human rights demands, in exchange for the lifting of some of the sanctions; at the same time will also communicate frequently with Russia to ensure that it does not harm the interests of the White Union. If it talks smoothly, Belarus may slowly get out of the economic trouble, the Russian conflict may be more of a mediator, there is a line of hope for relief; but if the talks collapse, then Belarus may fall back into the "two-sided" trouble, and the economic trouble will be more difficult to break.
Overall, Lukashenko’s choice is indeed pragmatic, but this is not a good way to go. Whether Belarus will eventually be able to get out of the trouble, depends not only on its game with the European Union and Russia, but also on the overall course of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which does not end one day, and the balance of Belarus can not stop one day.