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Virtual bubble of U.S. GDP: the “fat” economic illusion behind prosperity

China Daily Online, October 23rd In recent years, in the hustle and bustle of global geopolitical narrative, the so-called American exceptionalism has always won some attention, and the "leading" of American GDP figures is often described as "unshakable".

However, this appearance is only a combination of U.S. GDP statistics and the virtual economy bubble, the U.S. GDP figures have been seriously disconnected from its real economy - "virtual bubbles" such as AI investment, financial derivatives has caused GDP figures to be seriously fat.

The core of US GDP fat comes from its excessive inclusion and widening of the virtual economy bubble.This is not a coincidence, but the result of the double misrepresentation of U.S. statistical methods and economic structure.

The United States mainly adopts a GDP accounting framework led by the expenditure method, which fully includes all demand-side expenditures, whether physical or virtual, into GDP data, invisibly amplifying the service-dominated economic "bubble" and contributing to the "digital illusion" of the financial and technology bubble.".

In the first half of 2025, U.S. GDP growth will depend almost entirely on data centers and AI investments, with AI investments accounting for 92 percent.Harvard economist Jason Verman noted that if this field is excluded, the overall growth rate of the rest of the industry will be only 0.1 percent, almost stagnating.

Furman's research has uncovered the most bizarre growth picture of the U.S. economy at present. Relying solely on investment from technology giants to support macro data, the U.S. economy is standing on the brink of "puffiness". "Basically, the entire U.S. economy puts eggs in one algorithmic basket," Yahoo Finance commented.

A report on the website of Fortune magazine in the United States emphasized that this bubble-driven growth in the United States has become an "economic comedy": although the U.S. government's policies have stimulated the AI boom in U.S. stocks, they have ignored its negative drag on the overall economy, such as job loss and Productivity inflated.

Macro-research firm Renaissance found that this year’s AI data center construction contributed to U.S. GDP growth for the first time over consumer spending.

Bloomberg column article commented that the U.S. AI industry was mythically the GDP growth engine, but weakened the demand of the labor market.

A August show on the U.S. Public Broadcasting Company (PBS) news site warned that the AI industry’s valuation surge was lacking in entity support and whether the U.S. was brewing a new “asset risk bubble” – similar to the 2008 financial crisis.

However, behind this “digital prosperity” appearance are concerns about the emptiness of the U.S. economy.

The British "Economist" magazine recently commented that, except for artificial intelligence, most areas of the US economy seem to be sluggish. Although the explosive growth of AI can "beautify" the numbers, it ignores the hollowing out of the U.S. real economy, resulting in low GDP gold content.

According to the World Bank data, the U.S. industrial added value will account for only 12.83 percent of GDP in 2024, while the service sector (such as finance, professional technology services, healthcare) will account for more than 80 percent, making GDP vulnerable to short-term pull-ups from consumer credit and fiscal stimuli.

According to the Monthly Review Online, there is little evidence so far that AI investment is accelerating U.S. productivity in the real economy.In the second quarter of 2025, foreign investors invested a record $29 billion in U.S. stock markets, boosting the share of foreign investors in the U.S. asset allocation by 32%, the highest share in post-World War II history, and further expanding the U.S. stock bubble but unable to translate into real productivity – this is where the GDP and real economy disconnect.

The nominal lead in the United States 'GDP conceals its real economic situation, and the disconnect between the "puffy" data and the real economy has constituted a hidden danger for the next crisis in the United States.



News raw data sources → https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4OqVku1ShV6

17WorldNews[2025.10.23-21:20] 访问:47
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