This article was published exclusively on Tencent News
In Tokyo in the early autumn of 2025, Takashi Sakaimi became Japan's first female prime minister, but the most eye-catching thing is not this historic breakthrough itself, but rather His cabinet had an astonishing initial approval rating of 64.4%.
This figure, which far exceeds that of his predecessor, was reached against an extremely complicated background: the ruling coalition has just been reorganized and inflationary pressures on the economy continue. The most unexpected thing is that Takashi City appointed a number of "black gold" scandal members, including core figures of the "Abe faction" such as Hagito Tanuki, to important positions.
Against this background, the poll support rate of the Gaoshi Cabinet is still so alarming, and it must not be simply usedThis is explained by the "honeymoon effect" or the celebration of the "first female prime minister". In fact, this phenomenon profoundly reveals the difficult trade-offs that the Japanese people are forced to make under the influence of economic anxiety, security threats and political ethics.
Therefore, this article will provide an in-depth analysis of the true composition of the high support rating of the Gaoshi Zaomiao cabinet, and explain why the resurgence of the black gold scandal failed to immediately ignite public opinion. And does this signal that Japanese society is irreversible "turning to the right" as a whole?
64.4%: It's not a regular "honeymoon period"
It is not uncommon for a new prime minister to have high approval ratings in the early days of his term. This is often referred to as the "honeymoon period."
However, the 64.4% obtained by Takashi Zaimu is of great significance. This figure is not only much higher than the starts of his predecessors Shigeru Ishiba (50.7%) and Fumio Kishida (55.7%), but more importantly, It was achieved amid political turmoil.
When Takashi took office, the Liberal Democratic Party had just parted ways with its 26-year-old ally, the Komeito Party. The Komeito Party left due to concerns about political funds and Takashi's nationalist stance; so the Liberal Democratic Party turned to a hasty alliance with the Japan Restoration Association, and the new foundation was not solid.
Against this background, instead of being frustrated, the support rate has risen. This is the first place worth pondering.
The core driving force of this support rate is also extremely clear. According to polls, the primary reasons are "trusting the Prime Minister"(26.6%) and "looking forward to economic policies"(22.5%). This shows that public support does not stem from satisfaction with the current situation of the Liberal Democratic Party, but from a highly personal expectation that has nothing to do with the party, namely We hope for the "tough" and "decisive" image presented by Gaoshi.
The most eye-catching thing is the change in age structure revealed by the Yomiuri Shimbun: among the young group, the support rate for the Takashi Cabinet is as high as an astonishing 80%.
But this is by no means a collective "right turn" by Japan's younger generation, but more like a fierce backlash against a long-term political "sense of stagnation." The new generation of Japanese youth is an "anxious generation". They are disappointed by the devaluation of the yen, inflation and bleak future prospects, but the prudent policies of previous prime ministers have never worked.
Nowadays, no matter what her ideology is, Takashi Saimu, as the first woman and a completely different hawkish image, represents at least in a symbolic sense of "breaking the rules" and "strong governance"--
Japanese youth are eager for action and change, and Takashi offers this possibility.
Therefore, this 64.4% approval rate is not an recognition of the status quo, but more like an ardent expectation for the future. It builds on the widespread economic anxiety and deep desire for change among the Japanese people.
The "necessary evil" of politics: Why didn't the "black gold" scandal immediately spread?
The most inexplicable move of the Gaoshi cabinet was its blatant "compromise" on the "black gold" scandal--
Not only did she appoint seven members of parliament who were deeply involved in scandals to positions such as deputy government ministers, but she also appointed Tanichi Hagiko, the core of the Abe faction and also affected by the scandal, to the important position of "executive acting secretary-general" within the party.
The irony is that although polls clearly show that about 70% of respondents believe this arrangement is "inappropriate," this still does not undermine the overall support rating of the Takashi cabinet.
So, why has the public's "lack of support" not transformed into "lack of support" for the entire cabinet?
The answer may be that the current "policy anxiety" of the Japanese people outweighs "moral punishment."
What people are most concerned about nowadays is not abstract political ethics, but specific family bills.
Continued inflation and the depreciation of the yen have brought pressure to life, and at this moment, the economic relief plan that Takashi has promised to launch immediately has served as a "life-saving straw", allowing voters to make a painful but pragmatic choice:
They are willing to temporarily tolerate a morally tainted government in exchange for hope of resolving their economic woes.
And this also reveals the power reality of Gaoshi from another aspect-- Her position is not solid.
She relies heavily on the support of the largest faction in the party, namely the Abe faction. On this basis, the appointment of Hagio Tanaka was not a "mistake", but a political exchange within the party that must be paid to consolidate the foundation of the party and ensure the operation of the government. price.
The Japanese public may have seen through this point, so they regard it as an "inevitable reality" in Liberal Democratic Party politics and temporarily tolerate it during the honeymoon period. At the same time, the government also tried to defend it, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara calling it "just right for the right place" and that the relevant members "have been punished by the party" to whitewash it up.
In addition, Gao City's status as "first female prime minister" also provides a temporary layer of protection. The media and public opinion's focus on this historic breakthrough has diluted the firepower of the personnel appointment controversy to a certain extent, and the public also tends to give more tolerance to this "breaker"-although this tolerance gained through identity politics is by no means a long-term solution.
What must be vigilant for Gaoshi is:
Scandal is like a dormant volcano. Once its economic promises fall short or the honeymoon period fades, public anger against "black gold politics" will surely double back.
Even at this time, opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party have made it clear that they will continue to pursue this issue during parliamentary deliberations.
Are the Japanese people walking to the right? The distinction between "elite turning right" and "public opinion anxiety"
Takashi's ascent to the top, together with her unabashed conservatism-historical revisionism, strengthening national defense, and tightening immigration policies-has made the argument that "Japanese society collectively turns right" more popular. However, equating the 64.4% approval rating with the Japanese people's comprehensive endorsement of far-right policies is a dangerous simplification.
But the "The right shift of political elites" is not exactly the same as the "right shift of social public opinion."
Gao Shi's victory and the Liberal Democratic Party's overall rightward stance are largely due to "electoral anxiety." The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a setback in the upper house election in July 2025, and some conservative votes were diverted by small far-right populist parties such as the "Participating Parties" that hold high the high level of "Japan First" and oppose "over-admission of foreigners."
In this regard, the top leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party came to the conclusion that this part of the votes must be recaptured.
Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election became a "who is more right" competition. The victory of Gaoshi marks that the Liberal Democratic Party has chosen to use stronger nationalist and xenophobic rhetoric to "hedge" the erosion of populism, which is essentially The ruling party's "strategic right turn".
The attitude of the Japanese people is much more divided and complex.
On the one hand, in the face of the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia, the logic of "strong country" and "strong defense" has indeed gained more market in Japan; voters have indeed shown a stronger conservative tendency on the issue of "security", which provides a public opinion foundation for Takashi's defense policy.
But on the other hand, this conservative tendency does not extend to all social issues. In areas such as economic distribution, social protection, gender equality, and immigrant integration, public opinion and the "right turn." Actually far from the point of view
Taking immigration policy as an example, Takashi's campaign rhetoric is full of warnings about "cultural conflicts", which are often based on false information on social media; however, the reality is that Japan's economy has become deeply dependent on foreign labor, and local governments are actively calling on the central government to introduce an immigration policy of "coexistence" rather than "exclusion" to deal with severe population shrinkage. Gaoshi's national-level discussion of xenophobia is out of touch with local actual needs.
The same is true on gender issues. Sociologist Chizukuo Ueno pointed out that although Takashi's appointment has improved Japan's gender equality ranking,"it does not mean that Japanese policies will be more friendly to women." It is worth noting that although she is a woman, Takashi herself actually opposes couples having different surnames, same-sex marriage, and supports single patrilineal royal inheritance-her high approval rating is obviously not because the Japanese people suddenly embraced her social conservatism.
Therefore, rather than saying that the Japanese people are "actively moving to the right", it is better to say that they have made a "passive right shift" under the dual pressure of international uncertainty and domestic economic downturn.
They chose not Gao Shi's "ideology", but the "stability" and "strength" she promised. This was a defensive choice based on anxiety rather than an aggressive ideological identification based on enthusiasm.
The fragile new balance: The triple test of alliance, policy and diplomacy
Therefore, 64.4% of the high market is indeed a high point, but it is also a dangerous point--
Her controversial personnel arrangements, unstable ruling coalition and imminent pressure to implement policies have all hidden dangers for her ruling career.
His Liberal Democratic Party broke with the Komeito Party on the eve of the election and turned to an alliance with the Reform Council. This new alliance is more ideologically compatible but has a highly unstable foundation. The Reform Council's refusal to join the cabinet means that they can "withdraw" at any time without having to bear the responsibility for the cabinet's failure.
This loose alliance has made Takashi's ruling foundation far less solid than during Abe's period. The absolute majority achieved by the difference of two seats makes her have to rely on the cooperation of other small parties to pass major bills, which undoubtedly weakens her ability to promote a radical agenda.
What is more dangerous than the alliance may be her ability to implement policies. As mentioned earlier, Gao Shi's support rating is based on "economic commitments." Therefore, on the contrary, if the "inflation mitigation plan" she promised proves to be a lot of noise, or if people's livelihood welfare is sacrificed to raise a defense budget, then the rebound of public opinion will be devastating-- Voters will "forgive" her because of the economy, and they will "judge" her because of the economy.
In addition to internal affairs, diplomacy is also another test she is about to face. In her previous political career, Takashi had little diplomatic experience, and her tough nationalist and historical revisionist stance inevitably made her walk on a tight wire when handling relations with neighboring countries such as China and South Korea.
Her "hawkish" image may be a plus at home, but it is likely to become a negative asset in international diplomacy.
A radical choice in the name of "stability"
Takashi Saami set sail with an approval rating of 64.4%. This is not only a "historic moment" in Japanese politics, but also a "collective trust" of Japanese public opinion.
Although the public did not vote for Gao Shi's right-wing social agenda, they voted for an image of a strongman who "seemed to solve problems" in exchange for financial respite and security comfort. This remains a worrying sign that When the economic downturn and external threats are serious enough, the Japanese people are willing to temporarily shelve their pursuit of political integrity and social inclusion and instead embrace a conservative leader who promises "order" and "strength."。Gao Shi's honeymoon period is a "window period" for which she takes advantage of public anxiety. She must find a balance between "fulfilling her economic commitments" and "satisfying the right-wing foundation."
But historical experience shows that this balance is almost impossible to last long. The 64.4% approval rate is not an "asset" of Gao Shi, but a "debt" she bears--
The answer will soon be revealed whether this public debt, which must be repaid with practical governance results, is an opportunity or a trap for Gaocheng.