On October 20, 2025, former U.S. President Trump stood in the front yard of the White House with a firm tone and confidence, and announced a big deal-a rare earth cooperation agreement totaling US$8.5 billion was officially finalized.

The agreement is led by the United States and participated by Australia. The goal is to build a rare earth supply chain that "gets rid of China's dependence."

As soon as he finished speaking, public opinion was in an uproar. The Western media was busy blowing the clarion call for victory, and the capital market also followed suit, and the stock market burst into jubilation.

However, can this seemingly proud transaction really solve the problem of "stuck neck" in the American industry? Can China still sit firmly on Diaoyutai in this rare earth game?

Resource anxiety puts America in hand, but the problem is not so easy to solve

At the conference, Trump described the deal as blatant, calling Australia the "number one player in the mineral partner" and described the deal as a "historic turning point".

Many media in the United States have also followed suit and hyped up this as a "challenge" to China's dominant position of rare earths.

But looking at the specific content, things are far from as easy as they are.

The long-term dependence of the United States on China's rare earth supply is an old problem. Especially in the military industry and new energy industry, the dependence on rare earths can be said to be engraved in the bones.

From fighter jets to electric cars, what does not use these rare metals?

However, the United States' own rare earth industry chain is not up to expectations. The mining capacity is limited, the processing technology is immature, and the environmental protection threshold is still high. If you want to build a complete set by yourself, reality does not allow it.

This time we pulled Australia, and it sounds like we have found a helper. Australia does have mines and is willing to cooperate with the United States in the so-called "supply chain restructuring". On the surface, there are indeed some signs.

But there is no mineral yet, the processing link is the key.

Australia's refining capacity is insufficient, and it has to rely on a factory in far away in Malaysia to process the original mineral, this time, the logistics cost alone is enough to drink a pot.

Trump said that in a year to realize the key rare earth "preliminary self-sufficiency", this goal sounds pretty hard, but the industry understands that to build a complete industrial chain, not paint a drawing can land.

The accumulation of technology, the construction of equipment, the training of talents, every step of time and money must be stacked upward.Whoever comes to power must face the same problem: rare earth is not to be digged out by screaming slogans.

Therefore, this rare-earth deal does have its symbolic significance, and can also give the capital market a strong needle in the short term, but to truly understand the "rare-earth hunger" of the United States, this single sale has only just opened its head.

Australia is in trouble at both ends, one side is resources and the other is business

For Australia, this cooperation may seem to have many opportunities, but it is actually quite stressful. On the one hand, there is strategic cooperation and political statement, and on the other hand, there are economic interests and realistic accounts. It is difficult to please both sides.

Australia has always been regarded as a resource-rich country, and its rare earth reserves are also ranked high. This time, signing an agreement with the United States is really to take the opportunity to enhance its position in geopolitics.

But then again, resources belong to resources and technology belongs to technology. The two may not necessarily go hand in hand.

The refining level of Australia and China is a big difference, the equipment is backward, the technical reserves are not enough, even the core separation process is still in the phase of grinding.

What makes Australia even more troubled is that its dependence on the China market is too deep. China is Australia's largest trading partner. Mining, agricultural products, education, tourism and all kinds of businesses are inseparable from China.

If the tension between China and Australia is caused by the rare earth agreement, it will really shoot yourself in the foot. Many Australian politicians also understand this, so after signing the agreement, the Australian Finance Minister quickly spoke out, stressing that "China's economy is very important to Australia".

This is neither heavy nor light, but the meaning is obvious: follow the United States in your mouth, but you have to be careful not to ruin the business in China.

From this perspective, Australia's current stance is more like walking a tightrope, with one side being a strategic name and the other being its economic lifeline. It is not easy to find a balance between the United States and China. Especially in sensitive times, if you make a little mistake, both sides may not please you.

China is steady, moving slowly, but the bottom is hidden in technology

While the United States and Australia are engaged in lively cooperation here, China seems particularly calm over there. It only emphasizes that the global supply chain is the result of market choice, and also reminds partners to play a positive role and not undermine the stability of the industrial chain.

No high-tone response, no frequent voice, but on the side of continuing to promote the high standard of rare earth export management, while silently consolidating the technological advantages of the industrial chain.

China¡¯s advantages in the field of rare earth are not only in its resource reserves, but also in its complete industrial system and mature technology.

From mining, separation, purification to final application, China has mastered a complete set of processes with high precision, low cost and fast efficiency.

Especially in the separation process of high-purity rare earths, China's technical level is already at the forefront of the world, and many countries can't even touch the threshold.

In addition to technology, China also has the right to regulate the rare-earth market.Many people may not notice that China has upgraded its rare-earth export policy as early as September 2025, not only on the total quantity limit, but also on the environmental protection standards and technical requirements of exported products.

This series of actions, which seems low-key, is actually very weighty.

It is equivalent to adding "technical threshold" and "green label" to rare earth exports, who wants to enter the Chinese rare earth market, must pass these two barriers.

More importantly, the overseas layout of Chinese enterprises is also quietly advancing.In Myanmar, Greenland and other places, Chinese enterprises master rare-earth resources through joint ventures, participation and so on, while bringing technology and markets together to the past, becoming the closed circle of the "resource-technology-market" trilogy.

No matter which way you go, you have to deal with China in the end.

Therefore, there is no need for China to rush to respond to the US-Australia cooperation agreement. This strategic calmness just shows that we are confident.

Rare-earth this thing in the short term by stirring can be kicked up, but the long-term struggle is who can really master the core technology and market pricing power. China does not rely on screaming slogans, nor on political declarations, is step by step to the industrial chain to shut down, to hold the voice.

Written at the end: A rare earth game, it is not about hand speed but about endurance

The $8.5 billion deal, it sounds really not small, and Trump has indeed won a lot of sights with this wave of operations.

But whether this cooperation can become a turning point remains to be seen slowly.

In the short term, this operation by the United States and Australia can indeed drive a wave of momentum in public opinion, and the capital market is happy to follow the speculation. But it is far from enough to really solve the bottleneck of the supply chain in the United States.

Technical gaps, cost disadvantages, time cycles, all lie in front of the mountain.

From the perspective of Australia, this cooperation is a bit like gambling, betting on whether it will be possible to navigate between the United States and China, without losing the strategic ally status, but alsoining the Chinese market.

In China's position, the dominance of the rare earth industry is not attained overnight, nor can it be replaced by administrative orders.

It depends on the accumulation of technology, the integration of the industry chain and the ability to formulate market rules.

The rare-earth competition of the future will not be a short race that you lose and win, but a full-fledged marathon of combined strength.

Source of information:

Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Key mineral resources countries should play an active role in ensuring the security and stability of the supply chain ¨C 2025-10-21 15:37

The United States and Australia signed a large 8.5 billion rare earth order, but Trump said to the Australian ambassador on the spot: "I don't like you"-2025-10-21 14: 12 ¡¤ Shangguan News