Takashi Takashi was just elected as Japan's first female prime minister, but what came was not the blessings of neighboring countries, but the warning from China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not say a word of congratulations, but directly stated that history and the position on the Taiwan issue must be "trustworthy and trustworthy."
This "no congratulatory message" inauguration day reveals not only the cold reception of diplomacy, but also the prelude to a tough future battle in Sino-Japanese relations.
What "red line" did she step on? Why doesn't China play by the rules? The accounts behind them need to be carefully calculated.
Political makeup can't cover up the "right-wing gene"
Early in the market, the "Madame Thatcher" dressed up appeared, apparently to reshape the Japanese political female image, in fact, to put on a layer of hard shell.
She is a faithful heir to the Abe line, which is not said by others, but is her own repeatedly emphasized political stance.
Not only has she frequented the Yakuza Shrine many times, she has also publicly denied the Nanjing Holocaust, and has regarded the historical issue as a tool for the "sovereign speech war".
She publicly shouted "Taiwan has something to do with Japan", and also claimed to organize a trans-party parliamentary visit to Taiwan.This "political show" in her view is a sense of presence, in the Chinese view is a touch of the bottom line.
Therefore, China's warning is not sudden. Without exchanging pleasantries, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly reiterated the importance of the "four political documents between China and Japan" and named "major issues such as history and Taiwan Province".
Japanese politics shifts gears, but the steering wheel turns to the right
The victory in the early elections, behind a set of political coalition reassembly. The Party of the Communist Party withdrew, the Japanese Reformation Assembly took place, and the "stabilizer" of the entire political ecology was removed.
Everyone knows the background of the Reform Association. This party not only advocates amending the pacifist constitution, but also is highly consistent with the extreme right in historical perception.
They do not admit the crime of aggression against China and are dissatisfied with the "post-war order". The combination of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Association is tantamount to stepping on the accelerator on the far right road.
The two parties agree on security, constitutional reform, and China policy, and even speech begins to unite. Populism, nationalism, and historical correction, these words slowly climb on the agenda of Japanese politics.
China certainly sees it clearly. A Japan to the right is not only a challenge to China, but also a constraint on stability in East Asia.
If the high-city government truly considers constitutional reform, military expansion and anti-China as the "main axis of governing", it is not only the relationship between China and Japan that has to hurt, but the security pattern of the whole region must be re-evaluated.
Thatcher's dream of hitting a financial wall
Goldman Sachs wanted to play the "Eastern Iron Maiden", but Japan's current fiscal pressure is astonishing, the government debt has long broken 12 trillion yen, GDP accounts for more than 250%.
She cried out to abolish the gasoline tax, raise the tax starting point, also promote the economic security bill, blockade of China's technology, these policies are bullish, but counting is a two-headed blockade.
Both to sympathize with the voters, and to meet the right wing, and also to start out the "strong country route", the result can only fall "like you think, like it is difficult."
The Liberal Democratic Party does not have an absolute majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, and must win over opposition parties to advance the bill. Although the Reform Council is an ally, it is not an obedient "younger brother." Once policies touch sensitive lines, such as tax increases or social protection reforms, the drama of allies turning opponents can be staged at any time.
The main concern of the Japanese people has never been the revision of the constitution, but the wallet.
The latest poll shows that 58.1% of voters are concerned about economic livelihoods and only 10.7% are concerned about diplomatic security.
So she is not an "Iron Lady", but more like a "Glass Lady". Once the policy goes wrong and the glass breaks, no one can save it.
The future of relations
When Gao came to power, China did not send congratulatory messages, but only warnings. This is a strategic expression. The foundation of cooperation between China and Japan has never been maintained by feelings, but by trust and contract. If this trust is destroyed by the new Japanese government, the consequences will not be as simple as a "diplomatic storm".
The economic relationship between China and Japan is rooted in the mistake, Japan is highly dependent on China's exports, and the industrial chain is deeply bound.You block technology, people can change suppliers; you disconnect the market, that is, you cut off yourself.
Moreover, on regional security issues, if Japan blindly sides with the United States to engage in "small circles" and military expansion, it will only plunge itself into greater geopolitical risks. The Taiwan Province issue is not a Japanese chessboard, nor is the historical issue a "multiple-choice question" that can be reversed at will.
China has warned in advance and left enough room. How to move next depends on the choice of Gaoshi Zao Miao. She can choose to return to the track of the four political documents of China and Japan, or she can choose to regard radicalism as a "political achievement." But the cost of the latter is not only diplomatic friction, but also the "braking point" of her political career.
No one can rely on confronting diplomatic achievements to build long-term stability.If the high market really wants to be a "woman of the age", it is not on dressing like Thatcher, but on whether she has the same political judgment and sense of history as Thatcher.
ended
The victory in the early elections was a dramatic turnaround in Japanese politics, but for China, it brought uncertain variables.
Without a message, there is a warning, a clear signal release.If she really thinks that she can rely on the hard public opinion, then underestimates the complexity of reality, and also overestimates the cost she can bear.
For Japan, the real test has only just begun.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to high-market early-size victory: hopes that the Japanese side will move towards the Chinese side
2025-10-21 15:53 · Guangming.com