It has been two days since takaichi sanae was elected Prime Minister of Japan. However, instead of waiting for the expected congratulatory message from China, she received a reminder from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs first.
When responding, the spokesperson of my Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not mention words such as congratulating her on her election. It merely stated that "we have noticed the relevant election results" and hoped that the Japanese side will abide by its commitments to China and comprehensively promote the strategic mutual benefit between China and Japan.
It makes sense for us to be cautious in this matter. As a typical right-wing politician, will Takashi Saami continue to stick to his consistent tough style towards China after being elected? Or do you choose to cooperate pragmatically with China based on reality? It's the place we need to visit.
As for China's statement, Japan should also be able to experience some unusual signals. So two days after his election, Takaichi Sanae's attitude towards China also underwent some subtle changes.
According to Japanese media reports, she is about to deliver a policy address, and some draft contents have been published. The name of China is very different from the former.
This far-right politician who once denied the Nanjing Massacre and advocated "helping to defend Taiwan Island", Nowadays, China is not only defined as an "important neighbor", but also offers to hold a Sino-Japanese summit dialogue to promote bilateral strategic and mutually beneficial relations.
Behind this contrast is essentially a direct response to the governance crisis by the high market and early seedling.
Although his cabinet's initial approval rating reached 64.4%, surpassing the predecessor cabinets of Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida, the fragile political foundation hides hidden dangers.
Once the interests are unevenly distributed, the ruling alliance between the Self-Democratic Party and the Vichy Society may collapse at any time.
Economic pressure further forced it to adjust its diplomatic strategy, with Japan’s government debt already exceeding 250% of GDP.Rising prices have become the most concerned issue of the public.
China, as Japan's largest trading partner, has an annual trade volume of more than $300 billion, and core industries such as automotive, semiconductor and other industries are deeply tied to the Chinese market.
The goal of "stable prices and secure employment" promised in the election campaign by the high-ranking market, without economic and trade cooperation with China, can not be achieved.
In addition, the game of power within the party also forced her to compromise.
As a loyal disciple of Shinzo Abe, although Takashi has received temporary support from the "Aso faction", there are many factions within the Liberal Democratic Party, and moderates and representatives of the economic community all oppose excessively intensifying the conflict between China and Japan.
By showing goodwill to China, she can both reassure the moderate forces within the party and fight for the support of middle voters with a "diplomatic breakthrough".
It facilitates the way for subsequent budget review and policy implementation, avoiding the repetition of the Japanese prime minister’s “average term of office less than two years.”
From the perspective of influence, the adjustment of Gaoshi's attitude towards China hides strategic considerations that stir up the East Asian pattern.
Within the framework of the Japan-U.S. alliance, this shift shows a complex double nature:
On the one hand, she actively implements the goal of defense spending accounting for 2% of GDP and plans to revise the "Three Security Documents" to cater to the United States 'military requirements for allies;
On the other hand, in the face of U.S. tariff pressure, she also tried to struggle for diplomatic autonomy through dialogue with China, to avoid completely falling into the "chess" of the United States to contain China.
This delicate balance has already aroused Washington's caution.The United States both hopes that Japan will balance China, but also fears that its compromise with China will weaken the unity of the alliance, and the difficulty of Japanese-U.S. policy coordination in the field of economic trade and security has gradually emerged.
In general, Takashi's shift towards China is essentially an expedient measure under multiple pressures. It is difficult to fundamentally change the structural contradictions in Sino-Japanese relations, nor can it completely save the fragile destiny of his cabinet.
From a domestic perspective, her right-wing stance and pragmatic policies are inherently conflicting, and if dialogue with China fails to rapidly translate into economic achievements, high prices, high debt and other issues continue to ferment, the cabinet support rate may fall at any time.
While the restrictions of the ruling coalition and opposition in the opposition party will make her policy difficult to pursue, the fate of the "short-life cabinet" has not yet escaped.
From the perspective of regional patterns, the "two-faced" strategy of high prices may cause more chaos.
It will meet both the strategic needs of the United States and safeguard Japan’s economic interests.
They both want to increase regional speech through military expansion and try to reduce diplomatic resistance through demonstrations against China.
This contradictory policy combination can easily lead to misjudgment.
Especially on historical issues, if its supposed revisionist stance is exposed again, it will inevitably trigger strong opposition from Asian victims, including China, and put the opportunity for dialogue that has just emerged into the east.
For China, it is very important to maintain a cautious attitude of "listening to his words and observing his deeds" in the face of sanae takaichi's initiative to show goodwill.
We can use the opportunity of dialogue to promote pragmatic cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, environmental protection and other fields, but we must be vigilant about the strategic calculations behind it and adhere to the bottom line of historical justice and core interests.
After all, the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations cannot depend on the temporary stance of individual Japanese politicians. Only by facing history and respecting each other's core interests can we achieve true stability and win-win results.