Source: China News Weekly
local timeOn October 22, U.S. President Donald Trump officially said he had “cancelled” a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, on the grounds that “I feel we can’t the expected goals”, but he said the possibility of a future meeting between the two sides still exists.
During the last conversation between Trump and Putin,It has only been a week since the "Budapest Summit" was conceived. Some U.S. officials told the media that the meeting was postponed because Russia still holds a tough stance and does not accept Trump's proposal to "freeze the ceasefire" on the current front. Ukraine President Zelensky said that this was because Trump had stated that he would not provide US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, so Russia was "not interested" in promoting the meeting. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that a meeting with "no fixed date" could not be discussedon“The Delay.”
This has repeatedly occurred since this year.，isAfter talking to Putin, Trump thought he could end the war.，But after that，Further information from Russia.，Trump misunderstood Russia’s position.Charles Cooper, senior researcher of the U.S. Committee on Foreign Relations, told China News Weekly that because Russia can not argue on the question of "whether to exchange a territorial ceasefire," Trump and Putin's meeting in the short term is difficult and fruitful, the disadvantage is greater than the benefit and can only be postponed.
Kupgan has worked in the U.S. State Department and the White House National Security Council for a long time. After bipartisan administration, he served as the special assistant to the White House National Security Council and senior director of European affairs during the Obama administration, and became the official in charge of European and Russian affairs in the White House. At present, he is still active in Washington policy circles.In February 2025, when he testified before the U.S. House of Representatives, he said that Trump was correct in his idea of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomatic channels, but the means still needed to be improved.
October 22,Participating in academic activities.Cupid is there.by BeijingIn an interview with China News Weekly, he noted that Trump has pushed forward the peace process in Russia and Ukraine.Eight months is not without results. Now, Ukraine no longer seeks the security guarantee of "joining NATO," and the positions of both sides are getting closer to a ceasefire on existing fronts. However, Trump still underestimated Putin's determination and failed to effectively combine "diplomacy" and "pressure" methods.
Dry cupthinkAt present, for European leaders, if Putin agrees to a ceasefire on existing fronts, then“No matter”For the rest of the region of Ukraine, this may be an acceptable deal.The problem is that it is not known whether Trump agrees with this.
Trump has said he will no longer meet with Putin for a while.that dayIt also announced that it would launch a joint declaration on Russia's two largest oil companies anditsDozens of subsidiaries imposed sanctions in a bid to call on Russia to agree to an immediate ceasefire. Trump said he“We’ve waited a long time” to make this decision, hoping “the sanctions won’t last too long.”In addition to,Member States of the European UnionAlsoThats the19 rounds of sanctions against Russia were agreed.
Trump really wants“Ending the War”，ButJust thinking“Ending the War”
"China Newsweek": As we just learned, the Budapest Summit between Trump and Putin wasThere are different interpretations of the reasons for the delay of the summit. There are also some analysts who believe that US-Russia just needs more time to communicate.
The cup:Yesterday (October 21), after a phone call between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Rubio relayed the results of the call to Trump, that is, the parties 'positions on the ceasefire had not changed. For example, Russia still demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Ukrainian military-controlled areas in Donbas, but Zelensky still refuses, and Europe supports Zelensky's position.
This has repeatedly occurred since this year.，isAfter talking to Putin.，Trump thinks he can end this war，But after that，Further information from Russia.，Trump misunderstood Russia's positionIn this context, if Trump and Putin meet immediately in Budapest, they will not be able to reach a new agreement that will be acceptable to all parties and will not a comparison.The Alaska summit in August was more successful and could even be said to be more bad than good, so the summit was postponed.
"China News Weekly": What does Trump want to achieve on the Russia-Ukraine issue?“The success?”
The cup:First of all,Trump really wants“Ending the War”。As we all know, he sees himself as"Peacemaker". His mediation between Israel and Hamas, India and Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia has been successful in a certain sense.
But for Ukraine, Trump just adheres to his consistent view of the conflict, and he thinks it’s all meaningless and there’s no winner."Everyone should stop." I don't think he understood what this war means for the parties to the conflict. This is not an ordinary territorial war. It is about ideology and Russia's history and culture. At this level, Trump underestimated the difficulty of his persuasion to Putin.
Trump just thought.“Does Ukraine need to sacrifice more land in exchange for peace? – Trump doesn’t care, he thinks it’s meaningless, the key is to “end it” as soon as possible.
In a sense, Trump is right, the exact location of the ceasefire line is indeed not the most crucial issue at the moment.：What is Ukraine on the west side of the ceasefire line? is it not an independent, fully sovereign Ukraine that can decide on the future destiny of its own country?
For the West,If Putin agrees to a ceasefire on existing fronts，and then"Regardless" of the remaining Ukrainian regions，This may be an acceptable deal。specialYes isonFor Europe, they want to make sure that Ukraine will not become part of Russia after the war.The “satellite state” can instead continue to serve as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO and the EU, but the problem is that we don’t know whether Trump agrees with this, or whether he can realize the importance of ensuring Ukraine’s independence.
"China News Weekly": In addition to the US and Russian leadersMeetingIn the past two months, Trump has also tried to promote direct meetings between Russian and Ukrainian leaders, but has not been successful. Is it less likely that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine will meet than that of the leaders of the United States and Russia?
The cup:Yes, it is unlikely to happen in the short term. The meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders should occur at the last moment of the entire peace process, not before a basic agreement has been reached. Moreover, I believe that from Putin's perspective, the US-Russian leaders 'meeting is a dialogue between major powers, which can enhance Russia's position on the global stage. However, the effect of the meeting between Russia and Ukraine leaders may be exactly the opposite.
Ukraine cannot"Win the war" but can "successfully defend"
"China News Weekly"In recent months, we have calledThis kind of repetition has been seen all the time in the "peace process": Trump gradually became impatient with Russia and Ukraine, gradually exerted his emotions on one side, but suddenly felt that "there can be a ceasefire tomorrow" after a certain phone call or meeting. This kind of emotion cycles again and again, will it continue to cycle in the future? For Ukraine and its European allies, do they have a way to deal with this cycle?
The cup:This unpredictability is here to stay, and this is Trump. He is just as fickle in his other policies，The reason behind this is that the Trump administration does not have a normal decision-making process. Under normal circumstances, different government agencies, such as the Pentagon, the State Council, the Treasury and the Ministry of Commerce, are responsible for discussing and formulating different policies.The president is responsible for making the final decision, but in the current government, the president is the whole “process” and the head of the department only acts according to the president’s instructions.
This has nothing to do with Trump's first termCompared toThere was a big difference, at the time he was still surrounded by the Republican establishment, and could not do what he wanted.“Lessons,” he decided not to let the people around him control himself, but let everyone do according to his decision. but in fact, he would be influenced by the viewpoint of the last person to speak to him.
As for how to deal with a Trump like this, I think the strategy Zelensky and European leaders are now choosingYes isIt is right. yes.Accusations from outsidethey，thinkshouldCriticize moreBut the problem is that it will bring real disaster to Ukraine.If Trump feels angry and frustrated, he will."Leave" and completely ignore the Ukraine issue.
In this yearAfter the disastrous "White House row" in February, Zelensky realized the risks and learned to work with Trump: The best way to deal with Trump was to try to get him on his side.
For Europe, they are working on"Protracted war"。They imposed on TrumpAre you satisfied with the 15% tariff? theyonIs increasing defense spending satisfactory? But the key point is that they need to maintain their relationship with Trump, otherwise it may bring more serious consequences. I think Europe's strategy now isManaging Trump: Hold him tight, praise him, and then try to push him in the right direction in a subtle way.
Of course, the key question that remains unresolved for Ukraine and Europe is whether Trump will ultimately sacrifice.'U.S. interests' offers additional aid to Ukraine. Currently, European countries are purchasing American weapons for use by Ukraine. Will the United States provide more weapons? Will Trump support Congress in giving new aid funds to Ukraine? Trump's so-called "impatience" with Russia has never come to this point.
"China News Weekly"In a recent interview with this journal, several Ukrainian politicians said that one of the key issues in the Russian peace process is the security of Ukraine, and Ukraine has understood that it is difficult to join NATO, the real"Safeguards" are more investments in Ukraine's defense capabilities.but the problem is：Can Trump understand and accept this?
The cup:First of all, I understand that Ukraine wants security, and it’s best to get it by joining NATO, but as you said, it’s now clear to the Ukrainian side that this can’t be done, at least not in the short term.“Alternatives,” such as security, similar to NATO’s Fifth Article, or the deployment of European troops in Ukraine, but I think these are low prospects, and European troops are unlikely to appear near the frontline or be ready for battle.
Therefore, the real security guarantee is to ensure that Ukraine has the ability to resist new attacks, rather than relying on foreign countries. This means thatUkraine isInvest in your own military and get as much support as you can to build defense capabilities.
This isReturn toThe question you asked, my answer is:"Partially possible" because the shape of war has changed to a great extent. For example, drones are now the key to victory in local battlefields, and Ukraine has the ability to produce its own drones. The real problem of capabilities in Ukraine is manpower. Russia is a much larger country than Ukraine, which is struggling to get the human resources needed for a large-scale war. But thisjustWhich means that Ukraine cannot“Winning the war,” and the capacity Ukraine needs to build is “sufficient to prevent aggression,” which is possible.
"China News Weekly"Does this mean that the security that Ukraine needs is just sufficient defense capabilities, and does not include strategic weapons that the US is unwilling to provide, such as long-range missiles?
The cup:This isInvolvedThe problem of attacking targets in Russia's interior. First, there is no doubt that by attacking Russian domestic targets, including energy infrastructure such as oil refineries, and strategic weapons such as strategic bombers, Ukraine has increased the cost of Russia's war and made the Russian people more feel the impact of the conflict. This would make Russia more cautious in conducting cost-benefit analyses.
But does that mean that all blows to the Russian interior are sensible? I think Ukraine needs to be cautious tooLook atThe cost and benefit of remote strikes, as this brings the risk of escalation of the situation.will giveIs Ukraine bringing benefits, or is it just increasing Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities?
I personally believe that while Ukraine can gain some benefits from long-range attacks, the best strategy is to focus on defense and prevent changes in the eastern Donbas front. In terms of security, this means that the focus is on improving the level of weapons such as drones that involve comprehensive defense capabilities.
"China News Weekly"The Russian-Ukrainian peace process under Trump has been promoted from the outset.The fantasy of “24 Hours to End the War” turned into an eight-month lengthy string.
The cup:First, Trump has the right side. The mistake the previous President Biden made before Trump opened his second presidential term was not to try to end the war through diplomatic means. It is well known that only a direct dialogue between Washington and Moscow can end the war.Last year wasDemocratic candidate Harris won the presidential election, and she would do the same.
So Trump, after being re-elected president, began to rebuild the channel of contact with Moscow, dialogue with Putin, and facilitate continued communication at the top level of US-Russia, which were all right. But what he lacked was an understanding of Russia’s mentality in this war. In Trump’s view, he could talk directly to Putin based on a personal relationship, and then Putin would say.“Okay, let’s end it all.”。
ButWar iscanstopped it.Is it?Trump underestimated Putin’s determination.Putin believes that time is on Russia’s side and that even if Russia can’t completely conquer Ukraine, it can defeat Ukraine politically and get the results Russia wants.
In the face of Russia, Trump did notThe two methods of “diplomacy” and “pressure”OfCombine. I understand Trump's thinking. He believes that the United States should focus on solving its own problems and spend less money to help others solve problems. But in mediation, only by convincing the other party that their strategy cannot succeed can all parties sit at the negotiating table. In this sense, the United States is increasing its support for Ukraine now so that aid can be stopped later; Some of the costs paid now are so that you don't need to pay more in the future. And this is exactly what is missing from Trump's peace policy.
Reporter: Cao Ran