Mongolia's high-level infighting suffered both losses, and neighboring countries could no longer be chaotic like this.
The latest news shows that Mongolian President Khurelsukh personally came forward a few days ago, On grounds such as wrong voting methods, the National Assembly's resolution to remove Prime Minister Zandan Shattar was vetoed., making the already panicked political situation in Mongolia even more complicated.
In just a few months, Mongolian politics experienced three violent shocks, from the "show-off of wealth" in June this year, to the veto of President Khurelsukh's parliamentary resolution to dismiss the prime minister in October, and then to the Constitutional Court's ruling that the parliamentary dismissal was unconstitutional.
It all started with Oyun-Erdene's unexpected stepping down. As a "reformist" prime minister who graduated from Harvard University, he should have been a benchmark figure in Mongolian Western-style *, but his son and girlfriend showed off Hermes bags, diamond rings and helicopter proposals on Instagram, which completely ignited people's anger against the powerful class.
Against the background of economic downturn, inflation rate as high as 19%, and youth unemployment rate soaring, this contrast of "Zhumen wine and meat stink" completely tore the social consensus apart. The protesters not only demanded the resignation of the Prime Minister, but also shouted the slogan "End the mining oligarchy".
The fall of O'Yung-Yulden left a huge power vacuum, and according to the ruling Party's Constitution, the party chairman should automatically become prime minister, but the party chairman of the time, Ammar Baisgräu, was unable to fill this gap in time because of the power game with President Hu Jintao.
In the end, the president nominated his confidant Zandan Shattar as prime minister. This decision directly triggered divisions within the People's Party. The conflict between Zandan Shattar and Amarba Isglen quickly intensified. Both sides have fought a struggle around the position of party chairman and coal corruption investigation.
The semi-presidential design of Mongolia provided institutional ground for the internal struggle. The president holds military and diplomatic power, the prime minister dominates economic affairs, and overlapping power leads to frequent conflicts.
On 17 October, parliament voted in favour to remove Zandanshatar, but the president exercised his veto right the next day on the basis of a "wrong way of voting."
More dramatically, the Constitutional Court ruled on October 22 that the decision to dismiss the parliament was unconstitutional on the grounds that “the right to the defense of the prime minister was not fully guaranteed.”
The deeper problem lies in the alienation of parliamentary politics, with members enjoying criminal immunity, resulting in anti-corruption agencies being helpless against the powerful.
Zandan Shattar accused Amarbaysgraen of involvement in coal corruption, but was unable to initiate judicial proceedings because the latter was still a member of parliament; Amarbaysgraen used the majority of seats in the parliament to promote a vote of no confidence in an attempt to oust Zandan Shattar.
This approach to “solving legal issues by political means” has made Mongolian politics a field of struggle for factions.
Despite the intense struggle, Mongolia’s diplomatic strategy did not take a fundamental turn. Both Zandanshatar and Amal Baisgrat were firm supporters of the “third neighbor” strategy.
The difference is that Zandhan Shalit is more inclined to export minerals in exchange for short-term economic benefits, while Amal Baishgren hopes to boost national competitiveness through long-term projects such as China-Mong Russia gas pipelines.
This difference is particularly obvious in China policy: Zandanshatar promoted the construction of China-Mongolia cross-border railway during his tenure, while Amarbaysgeleng actively promoted the implementation of China-Russia-Mongolia natural gas pipeline project.
The reaction of neighboring countries is intriguing. After Oyun-Erdene stepped down, China chose to meet with the new Prime Minister Zandanshatar one week after he took office, emphasizing "maintaining policy stability". This “cold-treatment” strategy demonstrates both respect for Mongolia’s internal affairs and implies concerns about its political turmoil.
90% of Mongolia’s exports depend on minerals, but four-month exports dropped 14.1% compared to 2025, plus the extreme climate caused 70% of livestock deaths, and the economic situation is at risk.
More seriously, corruption among the power classes exacerbates social inequality: the richest 10% of the population control 40% of wealth, while 60% of residents in the capital Ulaanbaatar live in shantytowns.
This "resource curse" is eroding the stability of Mongolian society. Public dissatisfaction is turning into practical action, and in mid-October, the opposition "Liberal Alliance Party" organized thousands of demonstrations in downtown Ulaanbaatar to protest the government's inaction in smog governance, tax policy and so on.
Although the scale of this protest is not as good as that of June, it shows the continuous fermentation of social contradictions. If the government cannot effectively solve economic problems, similar protests may evolve into larger social movements.
In the face of the turmoil in Mongolia, the attitude of neighboring countries is crucial. China has shown its sincerity through aid projects. The "Green Lake 1008 Residential Area" project completed on October 16th has provided modern housing for shantytown residents in Ulaanbaatar. This strategy of "people's livelihood diplomacy" has not only improved the lives of local people, but also enhanced mutual trust between China and Mongolia.
Russia, on the other hand, has consolidated its influence through energy cooperation and after the construction of the "Siberian Power 2" gas pipeline project, Mongolia can receive billions of dollars in transit fees annually.
For Mongolia, the key to getting out of the predicament lies in institutional reform: first, the constitution needs to be revised to clarify the power boundaries between the president and the prime minister and avoid internal friction caused by overlapping powers;
Parliamentary immunities should be lifted, independent anti-corruption agencies should be established, and ultimately, economic diversification should be promoted and dependence on exports of minerals reduced.
Only in this way can Mongolia be liberated from the "curse of resources" and true long-term peace. This political storm is both a crisis and a turning point, and if Mongolia can seize the opportunity and promote structural reforms, its geographical advantages are expected to turn into development momentum;
On the contrary, if the power struggle continues to ferment, this inland country trapped between the two great powers could become a victim of geo-games.
References:
Mongolian Prime Minister Zandán Shalit resigned – Central News
Mongolian President Vetoes Parliament's Decision to Dismiss Prime Minister Zandanshatar-CCTV News