The Sino-US trade war has reached this point today, and every new news may become the key to the decisive victory between the two sides. In the past 48 hours, Trump received three bad news in a row. He really didn't expect China to be so difficult to deal with:

The first bad news Trump received came from Germany.According to official statistics from Germany, between January and August 2025, China-German trade amounted to €16.34 billion, higher than the United States. This means that China once again surpassed the United States and became Germany's largest trading partner.

The second bad news, coming from Argentina. According to the official data of Argentina, last month, in September 2025, China again became Argentina's largest trading partner three years later.

The third bad news comes from within the United States. On October 22, Washington time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent regrettably announced the latest data: the total amount of U.S. debt exceeded 38 trillion U.S. dollars for the first time in history. From 37 trillion to 38 trillion, it only took more than 2 months this time. The U.S. Treasury Department has nothing to do about this. At the same time, the U.S. government has been shut down for more than 22 days, and there is no sign of recovery at present.

Each of the above three bad news is enough to make top U.S. officials panic. At this juncture, Trump said: "I think we will reach an agreement with China!" On October 22, local time, Trump emphasized this sentence again when meeting with NATO Secretary General Rutte. Moreover, this time Trump also mentioned that China and the United States will not only reach an agreement on the rare earth issue, but may also reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Currently, Trump is very much looking forward to meeting with China at the APEC meeting at the end of October. It now seems that he wants to talk about not only rare earths, but also nuclear cuts.

It is clear to all that the reason Trump has repeatedly emphasized that "China and the United States will reach an agreement" is to make international capital and financial markets reassured. because once the parties lose confidence in the agreement, the big capital will inevitably flee the United States, and the US stock pointed out that there will be a flashback again.

As for the rare earth issue, Trump is actually preparing for the worst. He understands that China will not easily relax its control over rare earths. Therefore, a few days ago, Trump signed a rare earth cooperation agreement with Australia. He hopes that Australia can help the United States get out of its rare earth dilemma. Trump is quite confident in this regard. He said: In one year, the United States will have so many rare earths that he does not know how to deal with...

However, if Trump is so confident, it will soon be hit by U.S. media and rare-earth professionals.The U.S. media, citing professionals, said that it will take at least 10 to 15 years for the U.S. to eliminate its dependence on China.

To sum up, all aspects of information are now unfavorable to the Trump administration. It can only be said that he did misjudge China before starting this trade war in April this year. He did not expect China to be so difficult to deal with. It was this kind of misjudgment that made him appear flustered when facing China and had to change his orders day and night. Next, let's see what else he can do.