Poland is really desperate! After Trump made an appointment with Putin, he actually clamored to shoot down Putin's special plane. More surprisingly, not long after, the US-Russia postponed the meeting.
According to the World Wide Web, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said: As long as Putin's special plane dares to transit Polish airspace, the country will not only not guarantee the safety of the other party, but also not guarantee that the plane will not be forced to land in Poland.
Because Poland is also a member of the International Criminal Court, and the organization has previously issued an arrest warrant against Putin. Although Russia claims the order is "meaningless," Poland has said it will implement it.
To understand why Poland dares to "commonise" with Putin under the special aircraft, we must first look at the "chancellor sword" that makes them straight.The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in March 2023 against Putin has become Poland's most hands-on political instrument.
As a member of the court, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski publicly stated that as long as Putin's special aircraft dares to cross Poland's airspace, not only will it not be guaranteed security, but it could also be forced to land and execute an arrest warrant.
These words sound tough, but after thinking about it a little, you will know that they are quite serious. When Putin visited Mongolia, which is also a member of the International Criminal Court in September last year, Ukraine also called for arrest, but Mongolia directly provided security guarantees, and Putin finally visited smoothly.
Tarita Días, a researcher at Oxford University, has long said that such arrest warrants are more of political symbolism to heads of sovereign states. If they are really implemented, they will face a series of legal obstacles such as diplomatic immunity, let alone the target is a nuclear power like Russia.
Poland certainly knows this, but it still chooses to speak so eloquently, which hides deep geopolitical anxiety. As one of the countries most active in assisting Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland's anti-Russian stance has profound historical latitude and practical considerations.
From being divided up by Soviet and Soviet countries in 1939 to being at the forefront of the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, this country's vigilance against Russia is engraved in its bones.
Now that the war between Russia and Ukraine is deadlocked, the Baltic countries around Poland are worried about the spillover of the conflict. This collective security anxiety has made them the most determined "pro-Ukraine faction" within the EU.
Regarding Hungary, where the previous meeting was scheduled, Prime Minister Orbán on October 3 publicly stated that "the EU should establish a partnership with Ukraine rather than accept its alliance", believing that "the Russian-Ukrainian conflict cannot be resolved by military means", a distinctive contrast that precisely reflects the deep divide within the EU.
Poland is speaking in this extreme way, and to a certain extent it is also pressuring the “Jazeera” inside the EU to prevent Western compromises on Russia from sacrificing Ukrainian interests.
And the Trump administration's attitude shift, more like a chain reaction in the game. On October 16, Trump and Putin just finished the phone call and was eager to announce the meeting plan, this eager style in line with his consistent logic of action.
From taking office in January this year, boasting "24 hours to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict", to what Putin said at the Alaska-US-Russia meeting in August, "putting the way for peace in Ukraine", Trump always wanted to take "big action" on relations with Russia.
However, the differences in U.S. policy toward Ukraine have never disappeared. After Secretary of State rubio had a phone call with Lavrov on the 20th, Russia reiterated its original position on peace talks and rejected the U.S. request, which made Trump's "peace plan" instantly lose its fulcrum.
The threatening remarks of Poland just gave Trump a ladder, he succumbed to postponing the meeting, and could also push the responsibility to "the lack of sincerity of the Russian side", but it can be seen clearly that the fundamental differences between the US and Russia on the Ukrainian issue are the culmination.
Lavrov directly described Poland's speech as a "terrorist attack", both occupying the moral height and cleverly pointing to NATO, Poland as a member of NATO, if really to act on Putin's special machine, is no different than NATO's war on Russia, this quality has made Poland's radical expression instantly a hot potato.
Kremlin spokesman peskov later said that "the preparations for the meeting are still going on", which not only didn't put his words to death, but also showed Russia's calmness.
In fact, Putin's itinerary will not be easily subject to Poland. He can choose other routes from Moscow to Budapest. Poland's threat is more of a political gesture, but this gesture unexpectedly poked the pain point of the US-Russia game.
The most striking part of this drama is that it exposes the vulnerability of the Western aid alliance.The Trump administration wanted to dominate the peace process by negotiating directly with Putin, but ignored the internal contradictions of its European allies.
Poland wants to defend its security interests through a tough stance, but may push itself to the edge of a direct confrontation with Russia.
Within the European Union, Hungary, Slovakia and other countries have started to openly oppose indefinite aid to Ukraine, while Germany and France have shaken on military aid.
High-ranking U.S. White House officials have revealed that Trump and Putin will not meet in the near future, which means that Trump's "fast war" plan is completely suspended, while Ukrainian President Zelensky is still rejecting any form of territorial compromise in the face of the "extremely difficult" situation on the frontline, and the path to the settlement of the conflict is becoming even more obscure.
In the final analysis, Poland's threat to stop Putin's special plane is not only the survival wisdom of small countries in the game of great powers, but also a microcosm of the chaos of the entire Western camp's policy towards Ukraine. Trump wanted to use the meeting to show his diplomatic skills, but he did not expect that the pace would be disrupted by the radical statements of his allies;
Putin, on the other hand, once again demonstrated Russia’s strategic orientation in this wave, neither being frightened by the threat from Poland nor allowing the US-Russian relationship to be completely broken.
Next, Trump may be more eager to make diplomatic results, and the differences in European countries will only become more evident, and the game around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to have more unexpected turns.
But one thing is certain. Although Poland's dangerous move temporarily ruined Trump's good deeds, it failed to really change the balance of power among all parties. The final peaceful solution still requires the two big countries, the United States and Russia, to sit down and negotiate seriously, instead of relying on this tense political performance.
References:
Polish Foreign Minister Speaks About Putin, Lavrov Reacts - Global Network
The President of Ukraine, the President of France, the Prime Minister of Britain, the Prime Minister of Germany, the Prime Minister of Italy, the Prime Minister of Poland, the Prime Minister of Norway, the President of Finland, the Prime Minister of Denmark, etc. issued a joint statement-Dajiang. com