Source: Direct News
U.S. President Donald Trump recently showed another wave of striking “face change” on October 16, when he announced that he would meet Russian President Putin in Budapest in “about two weeks”; but only five days later, he personally announced the suspension of the plan.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have all been a problem for Trump to “solve quickly and resolutely.”At the moment, the first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been reached, but its vulnerability is obvious.
Trump’s “changing face” behind.
Trump's decision to postpone his meeting with Putin in Budapest followed the call between US Secretary of State rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on the 20th. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement after the call saying that Lavrov and rubio had a "constructive discussion" on the same day around the consensus reached by the two heads of state in the previous telephone conversation. The two sides discussed specific measures that may be taken to implement the relevant consensus. However, the statement did not disclose further details. Sources revealed that Rubio and Lavrov have differences on whether Russia will stop "attacking" Ukraine.
"Let's start solving Russia's problems!" Trump's statement in Egypt when he delivered a speech celebrating the ceasefire agreement in Gaza highlighted another question: Why was he able to promote a ceasefire in Gaza but was helpless to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Trump "has no cards in his hand"
The Trump administration is able to push for a ceasefire in Gaza, and the core of it is to rely on two big clutches:
The first is the "extreme pressure" on Israel. After the Israeli air strike on Qatar, Trump not only ordered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to publicly apologize to Qatar, but also asked Israel to agree to reach a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement with Hamas. A black-and-white photo showing Trump "supervising" Netanyahu's apology vividly demonstrates his strong influence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Anonymous U.S. officials revealed that Netanyahu “understood that Trump is in control of everything, he could not bear losing Trump’s support,” and “Israel would not exist without the United States.”
The second is to use allies in the Gulf countries to put pressure on Hamas. The Trump administration maintains close ties with Gulf countries and relies particularly on Qatar's mediation role. Some analysts pointed out that Trump upgraded his security commitment to Qatar on October 1. At the same time as his "20-point plan" was proposed, it was precisely to win the support of Qatar and other Gulf countries, especially hoping that Qatar could continue to play its mediation role.
Compared with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Trump was obviously in the embarrassing situation of "having no cards to play" in the Ukraine crisis. After Trump came to power, he wavered on the issue of putting pressure on Putin or Zelensky, but neither of them achieved results.
Trump's diplomatic strategy towards Ukraine can be described as "disaster after disaster", including but not limited to "playing" on Zelensky. Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House three times. He was not only "played" by Trump, but also fruitless, and finally returned empty-handed. Trump publicly reprimanded Zelensky and once announced that he would interrupt intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine. However, he withdrew these decisions under pressure from European allies worried that this would lead to the collapse of Ukraine.
Earlier this year, Trump pressured Ukraine to make concessions on territorial matters to end the Ukrainian conflict; at the end of September, Trump also declared that Ukraine had the ability to “take back the whole of Ukraine” and restore the original status of the territory. On October 17, when asked by reporters whether Ukraine needed to exchange peace for territory, Trump simply said: “No one knows,” this swing completely exposed his strategic chaos over the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
It is Trump's series of repeated speeches and actions that prove to the outside world the limitations of Trump in dealing with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Putin "accurately grasps" Trump
The change of Trump's attitude towards the meeting is precisely the best example of Putin's accurate grasp of Trump's diplomatic rhythm. Trump sometimes pleases Putin and sometimes threatens him, but Putin always seems to be able to take the initiative and "play cards" at the critical moment, so that Trump's diplomatic breakthrough comes to an end.
Russia has always emphasized eliminating the "root cause" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that is, the existential threat posed to Russia by NATO's eastward expansion. The analysis pointed out that the difference between Trump and Putin lies in that Trump demands a ceasefire before a political settlement, while Putin demands a settlement first. The two are deadlocked.
Putin's "precision to pin" made Trump in the mediation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, once again to taste the taste of "eating chicken".
In July, just as Trump appeared to be approving a bill on sanctions against Russia backed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate, Putin agreed to hold a summit in Alaska, leading to the legislative proposal being postponed.
Last week, there was widespread news that the White House was considering providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin took the initiative to call Trump. The timing of the phone call was intriguing, just one day before Trump and Zelensky planned to meet at the White House.
After the phone call, Trump immediately released a signal to the outside world that he might hold a summit with Putin in Budapest. Immediately afterwards, Trump met with Zelensky as scheduled at the White House, but the talks ended in a "tense atmosphere and no substantive results were achieved." The previously hotly discussed Tomahawk missile aid plan to Ukraine was quietly shelved. Putin called Trump the day before the "Tzeh Conference", which showed Putin's diplomatic flexibility and precise grasp of the situation.
Back then, Trump boasted during the 2024 U.S. election that he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a few hours. But now, he changed his tune, saying that he thought the Russia-Ukraine issue might be the easiest issue to solve, but in fact it was very complicated...