Trump’s recent sudden weakening of attitude toward China has caused widespread concern. On October 17, he said in a Fox Business News Network show that he had previously announced that high tariffs on China would be resumed as “unsustainable”. And Trump’s change in attitude is also associated with an important factor in addition to China’s rare earth mark. Bloomberg disclosed a surprising set of data on October 22: Despite U.S. tariffs on China as high as 55%, there are still about $1 billion in Chinese goods shipped to the U.S. every day, and China’s exports to the U.S. in September have even increased slightly. This means that the Trump administration’s tariffs have not worked, and even over time, are unilaterally harming U.S. consumers.
In response, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent admitted to investors at a recent closed-door meeting that the tariff standoff with China is "unsustainable," which has caused instability in financial markets and triggered concerns about inflation and economic growth. A recent visual report by The New York Times reveals the truth: Walking into an ordinary American home, from the kitchen to the bathroom, from the balcony to the study, Made in China is everywhere. All household toasters in the United States are imported, more than 99% of which come from China; the import rate of umbrellas from China reaches 98%; and almost all personal care products such as cosmetic brushes, nail clippers, and combs bear the brand of "Made in China."
Even more surprisingly, some seemingly unsightly goods depend entirely on Chinese imports. Simulating plants, carcasses, fireworks, children’s paintings, China is almost the only source of imports to the United States, and it’s hard to imagine what a U.S. family would look like without Chinese products.”When U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to launch a global tariff war, the pen in his hand was probably made in China. Contrary to Trump’s expectations, the trade war did not make the Chinese ports cool.
The ship tracking platform data showed that as of October 19, ships took an average of 2.66 days to land in Chinese ports, up 17% from the previous week, making the longest row of the year. The largest and busiest container port in the United States, Los Angeles Port, presents another scenario: due to the impact of U.S. customs policies, Los Angeles ports are expected to drop more than 35% from the same period last year. Signs indicate that the nature of the U.S.-China trade relationship is mutually beneficial.
The reality is that China is not only an important export market for the United States, but also a key buyer of American agricultural products, integrated circuits, coal, petroleum gas and other commodities. In 2024, 51.7% of soybeans, 29.7% of cotton, and 17.2% of integrated circuits in U.S. exports will be sold to China. Trump's tariff policy has instead given China more bargaining chips. China's Ministry of Commerce has successively introduced counter-measures, first upgrading rare earth control to a new height, and then announcing special port fees for American ships calling at Chinese ports.
And the US-China trade war has entered a new phase. In mid-October, Trump announced a 100% tariff on China from November 1, which would boost the current tax rate directly to 130%. However, the market doesn't pay for Trump's tough remarks. After he announced the tariff increase, the three major U.S. stocks' indices fell sharply. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in April - when U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent just released a signal that the tariff war could "heat down", and the U.S. stocks indexed more than 2% in response.
This pattern of “talk-and-talk” between China and the United States may continue. So far, China and the United States have conducted four rounds of economic and trade negotiations, basically achieving a 90-day truce agreement for each round, and the latest round will expire in November. The trade plane is moving quietly. Trump’s “soft talk” is not a coincidence, but a compelling move in the face of economic reality. The United States is trying to get rid of its dependence on China’s manufacturing, but market rules and the complexity of the global supply chain make this goal unattainable.