Last year, Singapore’s diplomatic experts reminded China that China has made one of its biggest strategic mistakes in recent years, which is to get away from American business, but is it true?
Once upon a time, U.S. business was the largest and most positive group of people in China-U.S. relations, but after the trade war broke out in 2018, they seemed to have agreed and collectively silenced.
Mahbubani, a senior Singapore diplomat, has a very direct view on this. This is China's biggest strategic mistake in recent years. He feels that in the process of rapid rise, China has inadvertently pushed this group of once most powerful international allies to the other side.
His observation is sharp, in the past, China to engage in industrial upgrading, the fastest way is to establish a joint venture with foreign capital, with the market to exchange technology.
Companies like Biady benefit greatly from this, but this game has gradually made many American companies feel wrong, and they feel it is becoming more and more like a compulsory technology transfer, and the cost of themselves is too high.
The market environment is also changing. Mahbubani has noticed that in order to support local enterprises, local governments in China often intentionally tilt industrial policies. In fact, this kind of thing happens everywhere, and the United States itself does it.
But the gap is too large for foreign enterprises who once supranational treatment in China.
There is also a change in feelings.After the 2008 financial crisis, China's economy was outstanding, and the confidence of the whole society rose unprecedented.This confidence projected to the diplomatic level, in the Western world, became a shift from humility to hardness.
However, it may be too simple to hit all the board on China. The reason why the American business community doesn't speak is that the roles of China and the United States in the economic world have been quietly exchanged.
Think about the relationship between American companies and the Chinese market in the early days of reform and opening up, from Boeing aircraft to General Motors, which is typical complementarity. The former has technology and capital, while the latter has a huge market and labor force. At that time, the American business community was of course a staunch supporter of Sino-US friendship, because they themselves were the biggest beneficiaries.
But it's different now. China has long been not satisfied with being just the "factory of the world", and its goal is to "innovate and become a powerful country".
When the companies of the two countries began to face a positive confrontation in the cutting-edge areas of new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, the kind of cooperation in the past, of course, came to an end.
The situation of the American business community has become very delicate, and their interests can no longer be simply equated with "friendship with China".
The drastic shift in Washington's political direction is also the most direct catalyst.The Trump administration initiated a trade dispute, and then the two Democratic Republican parties rarely reached a consensus on this hard-to-China issue.
This completely changed the political atmosphere of the United States.In the mountain of Congress, talking and lobbying for China, you have to measure the political risk of the big things.
Therefore, the silence of the American business community is complicated behind it. There are not only their hesitation and dissatisfaction with the new rules of the Chinese market, but also their bowing and compromise under the domestic political pressure of the United States.
The national strategies of the two countries have also diverged. China's roadmap is very clear, and the core is technological innovation and industrial autonomy. On the one hand, it deepens cooperation with hundreds of countries around the world through projects such as the "Belt and Road" to create a diversified circle of friends to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market.
The domestic patent law is also being revised to protect innovation and pave the way for moving from "Made in China" to "Created in China."
In contrast, the U.S. strategy towards China appears to be very passive.McKee said that Washington lacks a long-term and coherent plan.
Trade tariffs have been extended again and again, trying to restrict investment in China, and acquiescing in companies like Nvidia to continue to cooperate on AI chips. This contradictory approach exposes the entanglement of U.S. decision-makers, who want to curb China's development, but are reluctant to part with huge commercial interests.
Today, the enthusiasm of U.S. companies to invest in China has indeed decreased, but if you look at the earnings report, you know that more than eighty percent of U.S. companies are still profitable in China.
This shows that the business logic itself has not disappeared, but it can no longer outperform the strategic competition between nations.The era in which commercial interests alone could sustain China-U.S. relations may really be over.
Once upon a time, U.S. business was the largest and most positive group of people in China-U.S. relations, but after the trade war broke out in 2018, they seemed to have agreed and collectively silenced.
Mahbubani, a senior Singapore diplomat, has a very direct view on this. This is China's biggest strategic mistake in recent years. He feels that in the process of rapid rise, China has inadvertently pushed this group of once most powerful international allies to the other side.
His observation is sharp, in the past, China to engage in industrial upgrading, the fastest way is to establish a joint venture with foreign capital, with the market to exchange technology.
Companies like Biady benefit greatly from this, but this game has gradually made many American companies feel wrong, and they feel it is becoming more and more like a compulsory technology transfer, and the cost of themselves is too high.
The market environment is also changing. Mahbubani has noticed that in order to support local enterprises, local governments in China often intentionally tilt industrial policies. In fact, this kind of thing happens everywhere, and the United States itself does it.
But the gap is too large for foreign enterprises who once supranational treatment in China.
There is also a change in feelings.After the 2008 financial crisis, China's economy was outstanding, and the confidence of the whole society rose unprecedented.This confidence projected to the diplomatic level, in the Western world, became a shift from humility to hardness.
However, it may be too simple to hit all the board on China. The reason why the American business community doesn't speak is that the roles of China and the United States in the economic world have been quietly exchanged.
Think about the relationship between American companies and the Chinese market in the early days of reform and opening up, from Boeing aircraft to General Motors, which is typical complementarity. The former has technology and capital, while the latter has a huge market and labor force. At that time, the American business community was of course a staunch supporter of Sino-US friendship, because they themselves were the biggest beneficiaries.
But it's different now. China has long been not satisfied with being just the "factory of the world", and its goal is to "innovate and become a powerful country".
When the companies of the two countries began to face a positive confrontation in the cutting-edge areas of new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, the kind of cooperation in the past, of course, came to an end.
The situation of the American business community has become very delicate, and their interests can no longer be simply equated with "friendship with China".
The drastic shift in Washington's political direction is also the most direct catalyst.The Trump administration initiated a trade dispute, and then the two Democratic Republican parties rarely reached a consensus on this hard-to-China issue.
This completely changed the political atmosphere of the United States.In the mountain of Congress, talking and lobbying for China, you have to measure the political risk of the big things.
Therefore, the silence of the American business community is complicated behind it. There are not only their hesitation and dissatisfaction with the new rules of the Chinese market, but also their bowing and compromise under the domestic political pressure of the United States.
The national strategies of the two countries have also diverged. China's roadmap is very clear, and the core is technological innovation and industrial autonomy. On the one hand, it deepens cooperation with hundreds of countries around the world through projects such as the "Belt and Road" to create a diversified circle of friends to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market.
The domestic patent law is also being revised to protect innovation and pave the way for moving from "Made in China" to "Created in China."
In contrast, the U.S. strategy towards China appears to be very passive.McKee said that Washington lacks a long-term and coherent plan.
Trade tariffs have been extended again and again, trying to restrict investment in China, and acquiescing in companies like Nvidia to continue to cooperate on AI chips. This contradictory approach exposes the entanglement of U.S. decision-makers, who want to curb China's development, but are reluctant to part with huge commercial interests.
Today, the enthusiasm of U.S. companies to invest in China has indeed decreased, but if you look at the earnings report, you know that more than eighty percent of U.S. companies are still profitable in China.
This shows that the business logic itself has not disappeared, but it can no longer outperform the strategic competition between nations.The era in which commercial interests alone could sustain China-U.S. relations may really be over.