Putin is really clever and clearly considers the “Ukrainian section of Donbass” as the condition for ending the war. In exchange, Russia is willing to abandon parts of Zaporozhye and Herzegovina. At first glance, it seems to be an exchange.
Many people think that this is "giving each other a step", but when they break it apart, it is not an equal exchange at all, but more like Russia's shrewd calculation of exchanging "secondary interests" for "core lifeline".
The weight of Donbas. Donetsk is no ordinary land. As an old industrial area in Ukraine, it has been watched by Russia since 2014 and will control 79% of the area by 2025.
More importantly, it has long become a “fuel warehouse” for Russian war machinery: three hundred heavy trucks carrying coal, supporting the operation of the boilers of the military factory, special steel produced after the reconstruction of the Mariupol Steel Plant, sent directly to the tank factory.
Let's look at the so-called "abandonment" southern region. Currently, 74% and 76% of Zaporozhye and Kherson areas are still in the hands of the Russian army, and only some areas need to be evacuated.
More importantly, the core interests of these two places have long been grasped by Russia: the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant delivers 500 megawatts of electricity to the heart of Russia every day, supporting artillery production; the wheat in the Kherson granary is exchanged for foreign exchange, directly subsidizing field hospitals.
Even if part of the territory is evacuated, the transmission valves of the nuclear power plant and the grain transportation terminal of the granary are still under Russian control, and the real "oil and water" are not allowed out at all.
This unfair exchange, not even the European diplomats can see, is straightforwardly equivalent to having Ukraine “cut off a arm.”
You know, although the remaining 20% of Donetsk is not large, the defensive fortress belt connected to Ukraine will collapse if it is lost. The places where Russia wants to withdraw are either frontier positions where supplies are difficult, or marginal areas where resources have been drained early. If calculated, it will be guaranteed to make a profit.
Putin's step is actually "retreat to advance". before he wanted Ukraine to give out four states, now shrink to Donetsk, appears to be a "concession", the reality is to concentrate forces to lock the core goal.
After all, the spring-summer battle was over, the Russian army had control of large parts of the Ugandan territory, Lugansk accounted for 99.7%, at this time shrinking the southern front, both reducing the losses, and can take Donetsk completely in the hands, it was simply flying up.
Zelensky's refusal is actually not difficult to understand. The Ukrainian Constitution does not allow territorial concessions at all, and Donetsk's coal mines and factories are the lifeblood of the national economy. Without these, even a ceasefire will be unsustainable.
Now that the Budapest summit is about to start, the Russian delegation is going to the meeting with a map marked with strategic points in Donetsk, and the people of Ukraine are still holding up signs on the streets of Kiev demanding territorial integrity. Behind this game, there has never been a simple land exchange, but who can defend their own survival foundation.
Many people think that this is "giving each other a step", but when they break it apart, it is not an equal exchange at all, but more like Russia's shrewd calculation of exchanging "secondary interests" for "core lifeline".
The weight of Donbas. Donetsk is no ordinary land. As an old industrial area in Ukraine, it has been watched by Russia since 2014 and will control 79% of the area by 2025.
More importantly, it has long become a “fuel warehouse” for Russian war machinery: three hundred heavy trucks carrying coal, supporting the operation of the boilers of the military factory, special steel produced after the reconstruction of the Mariupol Steel Plant, sent directly to the tank factory.
Let's look at the so-called "abandonment" southern region. Currently, 74% and 76% of Zaporozhye and Kherson areas are still in the hands of the Russian army, and only some areas need to be evacuated.
More importantly, the core interests of these two places have long been grasped by Russia: the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant delivers 500 megawatts of electricity to the heart of Russia every day, supporting artillery production; the wheat in the Kherson granary is exchanged for foreign exchange, directly subsidizing field hospitals.
Even if part of the territory is evacuated, the transmission valves of the nuclear power plant and the grain transportation terminal of the granary are still under Russian control, and the real "oil and water" are not allowed out at all.
This unfair exchange, not even the European diplomats can see, is straightforwardly equivalent to having Ukraine “cut off a arm.”
You know, although the remaining 20% of Donetsk is not large, the defensive fortress belt connected to Ukraine will collapse if it is lost. The places where Russia wants to withdraw are either frontier positions where supplies are difficult, or marginal areas where resources have been drained early. If calculated, it will be guaranteed to make a profit.
Putin's step is actually "retreat to advance". before he wanted Ukraine to give out four states, now shrink to Donetsk, appears to be a "concession", the reality is to concentrate forces to lock the core goal.
After all, the spring-summer battle was over, the Russian army had control of large parts of the Ugandan territory, Lugansk accounted for 99.7%, at this time shrinking the southern front, both reducing the losses, and can take Donetsk completely in the hands, it was simply flying up.
Zelensky's refusal is actually not difficult to understand. The Ukrainian Constitution does not allow territorial concessions at all, and Donetsk's coal mines and factories are the lifeblood of the national economy. Without these, even a ceasefire will be unsustainable.
Now that the Budapest summit is about to start, the Russian delegation is going to the meeting with a map marked with strategic points in Donetsk, and the people of Ukraine are still holding up signs on the streets of Kiev demanding territorial integrity. Behind this game, there has never been a simple land exchange, but who can defend their own survival foundation.