In this era when the world is turning faster and faster, the international situation seems like someone has pressed the pause button. On the one hand, Russia and Ukraine are still wrestling amid the sound of gunfire, and on the other hand, China and the United States are wrestling in a trade war without smoke. Two wars, one hot and one cold, stirred the nerves of the whole earth.
But just as everyone was calculating how the next step would go, Russia was like an old player who had seen the situation for a long time, neither excited nor interrupted, and quietly stood by.
It was not until October 21 that Russia finally opened its mouth and said a dry truth, which made people realize that Putin had not been in a hurry because he had long known how to play the game.
Does the United States want to make a comeback on rare earths? Russia's words burst illusions
On October 21, the words of Dymuhamedov, president of the Russian Consumer Association for Rare and Rare-Earth Metals, directly torn the American fantasy.
He said very clearly that the U.S. now has zero production, but annual consumption is between 30 and 50 tons.Do you want to build a complete industrial chain from scratch?Don't dream, at least five to ten years, and you have to smash in billions of dollars.
This is not about buying vegetables, nor is it something that can be done in a year.
This may sound like economics, but it is actually geopolitics. You should know that resources such as rare earths and gallium are not only industrial materials, but also strategic weapons.
The United States is in a hurry now because it finds that it has no card at all in this respect. As soon as Trump signed a rare earth cooperation agreement with Australia, he said, "Solve the rare earth problem within a year." It sounds exciting, but Russia immediately poured cold water on it: if you really believe this, you are deceiving yourself and others.
Dimuhamedov's speech, not by word, behind him is the resource industry of the whole of Russia, and this word is equivalent to knocking a precautionary needle on the whole world.
Although the United States is shouting loudly, if it really wants to turn the tables on the front of rare earths, it will take ten or eight years. And what has China been doing in the past ten years? Not only is it to maintain the advantages of rare earths, but it is also playing this card more and more firmly.
Why is Russia sinking because it sees more than anyone else?
Putin has never been a person who likes to steal the camera, especially when fighting between China and the United States, he always has a "You play with yours, and I watch mine."
Some say it’s negative, and some feel it’s incompetent, but the truth is more complicated.Russia’s silence this time is not without a position, but a thoughtful retreat strategy.
First, Russia knows very well that it is no longer a superpower that can confront China and the United States head-on. With limited national strength and limited resources, if you really want to get deeply involved in the Sino-US confrontation, you are causing trouble for yourself.
It's better to wait and see what happens than to make a rash statement. As the old saying goes, "Immortals fight, mortals stay away". This time, Russia is the "mortal" who hides the farthest but sees the clearest.
Secondly, Putin has a deeper consideration: he has confidence in China.Don't watch the Chinese-US trade war hit the sky, and China has taken every step without panic.
The counterattack, the cooperation, especially in the rare earth issue, not only did not make concessions, but said clearly that rare earth is a national strategic resource to be used where it is intended.
Doesn't this just confirm the Russian "big truth"? America's rare earth dream can't be realized by mouth. China doesn't promise to liberalize rare earth export controls, and it's useless for Trump to be anxious.
The reason why China dares to be so tough depends on this card in its hand. Of course, Putin can see it, which is why he chooses to "stand still" with such confidence.
Trump is overwhelmed, rare earths are just the tip of the iceberg
From a distance, the Sino-US trade war looks like a protracted struggle, but for Trump, this is the beginning of his headache. Because he not only has to deal with China, but also has to deal with Russia.
The fire on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield has not yet been extinguished, and the European side is also constantly putting pressure on the United States. Not long ago, Trump and Putin had a phone call. The originally arranged second meeting was directly shelved because the United States believed that Putin "did not want a ceasefire." This is not a question of diplomatic arrangements, this is a direct cooling of US-Russia relations.
Trump's trouble is far more than this: on the one hand, he wants to suppress China in Asia, while on the other hand, he has to defend Russia in Europe, open fire on both fronts together, even the United States can't eat.
He wants to put pressure on China in a trade war, and he needs to concentrate all his resources and attention, but he can’t let go of Russia, because once the situation in Russia and Ukraine goes out of control, the entire NATO system faces turmoil.
This is a typical "two-line trouble."The United States is confident, but its strategic resources are limited.To deal with both China and Russia, the result is that neither side can solve completely.
Trump wants to break through on the rare earth issue because he can't gain an advantage elsewhere. But at this point, China and Russia singed in harmony, smashing the abacus of the United States into pieces.
China's silence, the anxiety of the United States, this game is becoming more and more complicated.
The game of the three countries of China and Russia has never been an isolated event.Rare earth is just a cut, through this cut, we can see a deeper structural confrontation.
China relies on its industrial base and market size to make steady progress; Russia relies on its resource reserves and geographical location to make steady progress; The United States, on the other hand, is exhausted on two fronts, trying to suppress China, but not daring to relax its vigilance against Russia.
Dimuhamedov's "big truth" not only reveals the weakness of the United States, but is also a precise strategic reminder. It made the outside world see clearly the protracted nature of the Sino-US trade war and explained why Putin was so calm. In this game, whoever is anxious first will lose half. Russia's "not in a hurry" is its calm choice after recognizing the reality.
More importantly, China is not a solitary struggle.Al there is no formal alliance, China-Russia’s tacit engagement at key points has been enough to form a grip on the United States.
Trump can threaten to raise taxes, but China is not afraid; he can pressure on rare earth, but Russia stands out and says “impossible.”
The end is uncertain, but the game is well set. Next, let’s see who can sit and who can laugh to the end. Next week’s fifth round of Sino-U.S. negotiations, the latest progress on the U.S. front, are all winds.
But no matter how you go, one thing becomes increasingly clear: this game between major powers is not won by a moment of impulse, but by comparing who can see far, endure, and endure for a long time. Putin was not in a hurry because he knew that this big game of chess was far from over.