Takashi Takashi became Japan's first female prime minister. This is an unprecedented event in Japan, and the media is in full swing. But less than three hours after the election results were announced, China's response was surprisingly cold.
In response, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun directly delivered a meaningful advice.
In diplomatic occasions, what to say and what not to say is often more important than the content itself. Behind China's "cold treatment" this time, there is actually a set of realistic judgments and preset boundaries on Sino-Japanese relations.
Instead of being cold, rather than being cautious.
At the regular press conference that afternoon, Guo Jiakun's statement was very restrained. He said: "It is an internal affair of Japan to note the election results."
This sentence sounds smooth and stable, but there is a sense of proportion in the words, leaving a sentence "I hope the Japanese side will meet the Chinese side halfway".
In particular, the paragraph referring to "compliance with the four political documents of China and Japan" and "compliance with political commitments on major issues such as history and Taiwan" is more like a red line in advance.
To understand the true meaning of this statement, you have to look back at the past words of the high market early. her politicians set, always positioned in the core of the conservative self-Democratic Party.
Many visits to Yasukuni Shrine, denial of the history of aggression, radical wording on the Taiwan issue, these records piled up together, it is difficult for China to have expectations of her.
In fact, in this diplomatic confrontation, China chose to congratulate with advice instead of congratulations.This is a strategic suggestion, and this is exactly what pushed the assumption of the high market to a more complex diplomatic starting point.
Her identity has changed, but her path has not changed yet.
Takaichi sanae is not a newcomer to politics who suddenly popped up, but an old face in Japanese politics. Over the past decade or so, her position on China has not changed much.
She has always supported the revision of the constitution, advocated the expansion of the powers of the Self-Defense Force, and approached the United States in foreign policy, especially in the Taiwan issue, and has repeatedly publicly supported the so-called "peace in the Taiwan Sea", but the semantics are vague, and are easily misrepresented as a tolerance of "independent" forces.
However, her role has changed after all. From a member of parliament to a prime minister, no matter how tough she is, she has to consider reality. In her first public interview after being elected, she significantly downplayed the issue of the Yasukuni Shrine, saying that she would "make judgments based on the diplomatic situation," which contrasts with her decisive attitude in her early years.
The pressure of reality is the driving force that determines her diplomatic line
Although takaichi sanae's political color has always been bright, whether she will continue the tough line depends on how several practical factors exert their strength.
Within the Self-Democratic Party is not a piece of iron, and although High City won the presidential election, the moderate party, especially the Commonwealth Party, which joined the rule with her, is not cold to her conservative line.
The Komeito Party has long advocated stabilizing Sino-Japanese relations, and is more cautious on issues such as Taiwan Province and history. She can't do without the support of these people to push policies in Congress.
Another reality is the economy. Although the economic relationship between Japan and China is often disturbed by political issues, the basic market has always been there.
For example, in 2021, the trade between the two countries exceeded $3700 billion, and almost 70 percent of Japanese companies are profitable in the Chinese market.
Of course she knew that. For example, at the internal policy discussion of the Liberal Democratic Party, she once opposed the inclusion of "economic decoupling from China" in the draft foreign policy on the grounds that it would "affect the global layout of Japan's manufacturing industry."
She does not know that her previous hard speeches have added a lot of flavor to China-Japan relations, but now her identity is different, and the interest pattern faced has long changed.
The amount of advice, not just literally.
This time, the Chinese side did not congratulate, but did not treat it coldly in the end, but with a phrase "hope to go side by side", in accordance with the principle of history and Taiwan issues, the word was said on the idea.
This advice, which can be said to be positioning.It sets the bottom line for China-Japan relations, and also clearly tells Gao Market: not all prime ministers are worth celebrating, the key is how you take the next step.
From China's perspective, maintaining stable and cooperative relations with Japan has always been one of the propositions, but this prerequisite is that "both sides jointly safeguard the political foundation."
This basis, including but not limited to historical issues, Taiwan issues, and strategic mutual trust, would only make the relationship more unstable by referring to them as “negotiation codes that can be handled flexibly.”
It's not that there is no space in the high market. She can choose to adjust her posture and make trade-offs in policies. At the beginning of her tenure, if she chose to keep a low profile on sensitive issues, China might not respond positively.
On the contrary, if she insists on taking a tough line, the result will most likely not be optimistic.
It should be pointed out that the election of Takaichi will indeed bring a period of "adaptation" to Sino-Japanese relations, but this does not mean that relations will definitely deteriorate.
Realistic factors often have more decisive power than ideology, especially at the economic level. Both sides have too many interests that cannot be easily given up.
For example, the supply chains of many high-tech companies in Japan have been deeply embedded in the Chinese market. Whether it is semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components in the new energy field, the cost of decoupling is not low.
Because of this, China chose to replace "congratulations" with "advice" this time, which is more like giving her a chance to see the situation clearly and recalibrate.
This is not the end, but the beginning.
Takashi's career as prime minister has just begun, and the direction of Sino-Japanese relations is far from settled. China's advice has been released, but subsequent interactions will depend on how she responds.
International politics has never been a play with a well-written script, but watching as you walk. The challenge of Gao City comes not only from China, but also from her domestic political reality and complicated geographical environment. Whether she can find a balance between principles and interests will directly affect her ruling track.
The re-running-in of Sino-Japanese relations can't be seen in a day or two, but how to take the first step is already crucial.
The future is not necessarily confrontation or cooperation, but at least for now, it hasn't reached the point of "nothing to talk about".
Source of information: Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to Takaichi Sanae's election: I hope Japan and China will meet each other halfway
2025-10-21 16:13·Guangming Net