Albanez visited the United States and brought back a $8.5 billion rare-earth deal, and at the moment of signing, Trump was shaped in color, thinking that he finally found the key to break through China’s rare-earth blockade.
But the reality is not so simple. Australia although there are mines, but it is only the original mine, the United States will only crude processing. Want to make rare-earth finished products that can be mounted in warplanes, tanks and other military equipment, without China's technology can not play at all. China has implemented strict control of rare-earth finished products and key processes in advance, export restriction layer increased. Wait until Trump found himself holding hundreds of tons of mineral dry eye, I am afraid only to call for China again "open the back door".
At the same time that this agreement was boiling up, Australia's action one after another became the first "knockhead" of China and the United States in the decisive battle phase. After signing the rare-earth agreement, the Australian reconnaissance aircraft broke into China's Seychelles airspace. China's southern battlefield reacted very quickly, sending fighters to the air, with lighting bombs directly driven each other out. One diplomatic provocation, one military probe, Australia prepared to jump into the pit.
In the face of such a provocation, China came out without hesitation. The lighting bombs above the South China Sea are not a warning, but a proclamation: there is no vague zone under sovereignty. Who dares to break, don't want to leave safely. At the same time, the level of rare earth control, China's layout has long been formed. No matter how Australia mined, how the United States signed, China's technology lacks the right footsteps.
Beijing did not react passively, but instead released military signals and economic signals through the South China Sea events: lighting swords and building walls. For allies who tried to test China’s bottom line, this “hard, deep” response was more deterrent than screaming slogans. This is the real version of “killing chicken monkeys” – Australia was beaten on the spot and the other countries that were still watching saw it clearly.
In order to understand the situation today, we have to start from Trump’s office, he is taxing anyone, not even his allies. Britain, the European Union, Australia are all on the list. At first, everyone is like China, on the surface to fight a trade war with the United States, and appear to be very arrogant. A few months later, the Western camp almost all line surrendered, and one signed a new agreement was exempt. The European Union is more difficult to disrupt China’s electric vehicle technology, Australia is easier to send the rare land directly to the U.S. door. The mouth shouts “free trade”, but the heart has already calculated who can keep the dish.
In fact, Australia’s gesture today has not changed overnight. A few years ago, they were subjected to trade sanctions by China because of the anti-China policy. During that time, the Australian economy was almost stuck in the throat, and the export of agricultural by-products was rejected by China, and domestic complaints were carried out. The people blasphemed the government and looked at the fall of their own industry. Later, the Labour Party government came to power, and began to repair relations, and China and Australia trade gradually resumed.
This repeated diplomatic gesture just exposes Australia's structural contradiction: its economic volume is inseparable from the Chinese market, but its security strategy is deeply mired in the American system. It wants to gain political security under the protection of the United States and continue to profit from China's trade, but the two are no longer compatible at the moment.
So the situation became strange: diplomatically, it moved closer to the United States, militarily tried in the South China Sea, and economically, it was inseparable from China. Australia is like a gambler in this game, with no cards in his hand and insisting on smashing them on the table. Trump asked them to play "anti-China pioneers", and they really believed it. But China's response was calm and restrained, quietly showing its cards. The expulsion from the South China Sea is just an appearance, and the rare earth control behind it is the killer. China's attitude is very clear: whoever wants to challenge China's bottom line must be prepared to be countered across the board.
After a series of actions, Australia not only failed to benefit, but also pushed itself to the forefront. The flares in the South China Sea illuminate not only the sky, but also the direction of the Sino-US game. For China, this is just a signal to start early; For the United States, this is the price of a miscalculation.
Trump thought it could push China by a paper agreement, but didn’t think China had long built a “technology wall”. According to China’s existing finished products and technology control intensity assessment, the United States in the rare-earth deep processing link is difficult to get rid of for at least 10 years.This not only means the hidden risk of the U.S. industrial supply chain, but also symbolizes the next decade global strategic resource pattern will be firmly controlled by China.
Rare earth is not only the mine, but also the "industrial food" that affects warplanes, chips, new energy vehicles and other industries. Whoever controls the rare earth chain, whoever controls the modern industry, has the power of speech. This first shot of the US-China decisive battle, is actually a CIA. Australia has become the outlet, and China, with it a precise strategic demonstration.
The real winner is not in the United States or in Australia. Trump laughed too early, and China's chessboard is far from over.