[Voice of the Observer Network]
On October 22, local time, Bloomberg that U.S. President Donald Trump has been trying to provoke a trade war for more than six months, but the strong resilience of China's exports shows that many of its products are still essential to the United States.
According to reports, China still ships goods worth about $1 billion a day across the Pacific to the United States, and exports in September have rebounded compared to August.Al the overall trade volume in the past six months has decreased by two digits, recent exports of some products have increased compared to 2024, overcoming trade tensions between the two countries.
The report also said that in the third quarter of this year (7 to September), China's export value of goods to the U.S. exceeded $100 billion, which helped China to maintain economic growth and annual targets, and the bilateral trade surplus reached $67 billion.
Bloomberg analysis believes that this phenomenon shows that because China's influence in rare earths, electronics and other fields makes its products difficult to replace, the role of U.S. tariffs in restricting imports by domestic companies seems to be limited.
Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu said that China's strong position in the global supply chain gives it a certain degree of bargaining power over U.S. importers in the short term. They also warned that other countries cannot quickly replace China as a supplier to the United States because "the reorganization of supply chains takes time."
The trade ties between China and the United States, the two largest economies in the world, far outweigh the global supply of products dominated by China, such as magnets, which are critical to U.S. manufacturing, or chemical raw materials widely used in pharmaceuticals.
Bloomberg's analysis of China's customs data shows that although China's top ten exports to the United States declined in the last quarter, e-cigarette exports grew.
Electric bicycles are also in high demand in the U.S. market.In the third quarter of this year, Chinese companies exported more than $500 million in electric bicycles to the U.S., a slight increase compared to the same period last year.
Exports of refined cathode copper also explosive growth, rising from almost zero to $2.7 billion in the past three months; cable exports grew by 87 percent to $4.05 billion.
China companies have also exported nearly US$8 billion worth of smartphones, notebooks, tablets and computer parts to the United States. Although this amount is less than half of the same period last year, it is still a large amount considering the impact of high tariffs.
In addition, while Trump has been weighing on the “small exemption” policy for U.S. small packages, U.S. consumers are still buying billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods overseas through Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Shein, Temu.
Zhaopeng Xing, a senior Chinese strategist at Australian New Bank, said: “China and the United States may reduce their reliance on each other, but this reliance cannot be reduced to zero.”
He also mentioned that Trump’s tariff policy vulnerabilities created space for some trade activities. He explained that U.S. importers can first declare tariffs on goods at the first sale price in a third country and then raise prices after the goods arrive in the U.S. port, thereby reducing tariff costs. In addition, shipping through Mexico or Vietnam also makes some unable to pay the full amount of tax.
"There are many loopholes in tariff policy," Zhaopeng Xing added, adding that U.S. customs "simply doesn't have enough manpower to solve these problems."
Bloomberg also noticed last week that the General Administration of Customs of China announced the trade in goods in the first three quarters on October 13th, especially the export growth rate in September hit a six-month high, which attracted the attention of the outside world.
According to reports, Chinese data show that in terms of US dollars, China's US dollar-denominated exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, both greatly exceeding expectations, with a trade surplus of US $90.5 billion. Exports grew ahead of economists' median expectation of 6.6% in September, suggesting that China's record export flood has not yet slowed.
In addition, although the current US tariff level on China is 25 percentage points higher than the world average, China's dominant position in the manufacturing industry still supports the continuous flow of its exports.
According to the analysis, the strong demand in the non-US market means that Chinese enterprises may be less affected by the threat of US President Trump to further impose tariffs. Growth in overseas sales has also helped boost China's domestic economy.
Reuters also noted that China's imports and exports in September were higher than expected.The report noted that as the world's second-largest economy, China has significantly diversified its export markets this year to resist Trump's tariff shock, helping to steadily move GDP growth towards the goal of about 5% this year.
Wang Jun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, told reporters at a press conference on the same day that in general, in the first three quarters, under the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, various localities and departments overcame difficulties and worked hard, and the vast number of foreign trade companies actively responded and pioneered. Innovation, my country's foreign trade resilience has been demonstrated and its structure has been optimized, achieving both quantitative and qualitative improvements, and the results have been hard-won.
At the same time, the current external environment remains severe and complex, the uncertainty and difficulties facing foreign trade increase, overlap with the objective factors of the higher base last year, and the stabilization of foreign trade development in the fourth quarter still needs to pay hard efforts.
Most analysts predict that China and the United States may try to defuse the situation in the coming weeks. Analysts at Nomura Securities said,"We believe that both sides may make concessions again after testing each other's bottom line."
China and the United States will return to the negotiating table. According to the consensus reached at the Stockholm talks in Sweden in July, the two sides will continue to push for a 90-day extension of the suspended 24% portion of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures. The measure will expire on November 10.
Trump recently listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino-US economic and trade consultations. On October 20, China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference that China's position on handling Sino-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, and tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of either party. Both parties should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit.