Before the new round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States officially started, the United States has already issued threats.

On October 20, Trump spoke to the Australian Prime Minister: If negotiations do not go as expected, he could raise tariffs on China to 155 percent.

At the same time that Trump threatened, China announced that senior female diplomat Li Yongzhen will take over as ambassador to the WTO.The US threat has escalated and China has made a low-key replacement. What kind of signal is being sent behind this?

China changes generals and starts a "rule war"

The change of China's WTO ambassador this time is not a simple personnel adjustment. The appointment of Li Yongqi means that China has moved from "response" to "layout".

Li Qingxian is the old face of the Doha Round negotiations, deeply familiar with the game logic of the multilateral trade mechanism, and has dealt with many high-difficulty disputes in China and the United States and Europe, and Li Qingxian's arrival is more like a "fight of rules".

Simultaneously, China has allowed former ambassador Li Zhengzhou to focus on the international negotiation positions of the Ministry of Commerce, forming a two-line layout of "internal and external response".

This arrangement is essentially pushing negotiations from verbal deals to the institutional arena. In the past few years, the United States has frequently used tariffs and sanctions tools to suppress Chinese enterprises, while China is more inclined to use multilateral mechanisms such as WTO to fight back with rules.

This time, it is China that has brought the issue into its own trajectory ¨C no longer following the pace of the United States, but adapting the pace and focusing on the rules of the game.

More importantly, this is also sending a signal to the US: China will not accept that ¡°who will negotiate¡± will also be determined by the US.

Bessent has openly pressured the Chinese delegation several times to try to interfere with the negotiating structure, which is a silent counter-reaction and is done through procedures and legal means.

This "soft while hard" strategy is intended to tell the United States that there can be differences in negotiations, but the bottom line cannot be shaken.

Just on the same day of the Chinese exchange, Trump suddenly threw a loud word at a meeting with the Australian prime minister: If Sino-US negotiations are delayed and fruitless, tariffs of up to 155% will be imposed on China goods starting from November 1.

This number is not only much higher than any previous round of tax increases, but also nerves the global market.

But the problem is that the threat is not entirely consistent, and Trump lists three conditions: China must abolish controls on rare-earth exports, strengthen controls on the circulation of fentanyl, and resume gross purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

These requirements sound more like a "swap list" than a real trade framework, and behind them are the real anxieties of the United States over rare earths, medicines and agriculture.

In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said in an interview with the media a few days ago that the situation between China and the United States is "cooling down" and tariffs are "not necessarily the optimal solution".

This reflects the core problem of the US strategy: the lack of stable expectations, and Trump is accustomed to using extreme pressure to strive for negotiating advantages, but this method is no longer new to China.

China has repeatedly stated that it will not negotiate under threat. If the 155% tariff is really implemented, it will not only severely damage bilateral trade, but also accidentally hurt American industries and consumers.

From Madrid talks on multi-border line restructuring, U.S. trust crisis

This storm was not sudden. As early as May, China and the United States reached a rare joint trade statement in Geneva. The two sides agreed to cut tariffs by 91% and set a 90-day negotiation window. At that time, it was widely believed that Sino-US relations were slowly picking up.

However, after the Madrid talks, the situation turned sharply. In just three weeks, the United States successively introduced more than 20 measures against China, covering port subsidies, shipbuilding industry investigations, and a new round of entity list penetration rules.

These actions directly tore apart the newly established foundation of trust. China originally hoped to expand cooperation through negotiations, but the frequent actions of the United States obviously disrupted the rhythm.

China¡¯s response is clear. On the one hand, orderly introduction of rare-earth export controls, in response to the pressure of the U.S. on high-tech raw materials, and on the other hand, through a bilateral mechanism to inform the U.S. party of the policy intention, to avoid misunderstanding and escalation.

At the same time, China has put 14 Western companies on the list of unreliable entities to counter it. These practices not only preserve negotiation space, but also set the bottom line of China's policy: Cooperation can be done, but you cannot make passive concessions under coercion.

Moreover, China is turning the trade war to a long-term systemic game, launching countermechanisms through the WTO mechanism, and fighting for the right to speak in global rules by coordinating with the EU and the BRICS countries.

This change is not drastic, but the rhythm is steady. It is not a short-term counterattack, but a strategic reshaping.

Trump¡¯s idea isn¡¯t complicated, and he doesn¡¯t really believe that high tariffs are the fundamental solution to the problem, but he believes it¡¯s a leverage that can be pushed, a pattern of ¡°take it, talk¡± that¡¯s rare in his past trade policy.

However, as China¡¯s strategy matures, it¡¯s becoming more and more difficult to work, and the reality is that the counterfeit effects of high tariffs have already been felt inside the United States.

According to foreign media sources, The CPI of the United States rose by more than 3.7% year-on-year in September. Among them, commodity prices fluctuated significantly, agricultural product inventories rose, manufacturing costs increased, and consumer confidence fell, all of which reminded Washington that tariffs are not a free lunch.

China¡¯s position is relatively stable, and the Ministry of Commerce has repeatedly stated: Talk, the door is open, not afraid to knock, be accompanied at the end.

This is not an emotional response, but a control over the pace of the game, China has not tried to hedge each U.S. hand with reciprocal tariffs, but through the system design and global cooperation network, gradually building its own game coordinates.

The symbol of this process is China's deep participation in WTO reform. Together with economies such as South Africa, Brazil, and the European Union, China is promoting the formulation of new rules in areas such as digital trade, green subsidies, and anti-sanctions mechanisms.

This is not only a response to American unilateralism, but also a change in the role from "rule taker" to "rule maker".

If China and the United States fail to negotiate, Trump really pushes the 155% tariff, and the global market will usher in a new round of shock. However, judging from the current signs, this is more like a bargaining chip before negotiations than an established policy.

This round of negotiations between China and the United States has not yet started, and the game has already started, but this time it is different from the previous "price war" and more like a "rules war".

The key to the future is not who can shout loudly, but who can stabilize and grasp the direction of the global economy. On this issue, China is already quietly making a big game of chess.

References:
https://xueqiu.com/6775696481/357573529--Snowball