The Caribbean waves are bigger, this time not a hurricane, but a bomber.
Since mid-October, U.S. military aircraft frequently appeared in the northern airspace of Venezuela, B-52 and F-35, the atmosphere is more tense than the sea wind.The U.S. says it is fighting drug traffickers, but watching this battle, everyone understands that "drug traffickers" are only excuses.
Meanwhile, Maduro has taken three steps in a row, and Colombia, Russia, and Brazil have joined the "three strong support" team.
The situation is sliding in a direction that is difficult to turn back, and is the United States really ready to fight another war?
Air deterrence escalation, the US military show real guy
On October 19, the U.S. Secretary of Defense confirmed that the U.S. military had destroyed a ship suspected of drug trafficking in the Caribbean, killing three people.
This is not an ordinary law enforcement act, but a practical and high-precision military strike. Missiles, drones, tactical analysis, a complete set of processes is comparable to theater operations.
Long before this, the U.S. Air Force and Navy had conducted a rare joint exercise in the northern sea airspace of Venezuela. The B-52H bomber took off simultaneously with the F-35B hidden fighter, also carrying real ammunition.
The U.S. says it’s targeting drug smuggling networks, but in this waterside near Venezuela, all eyes are focused on the Maduro government.The Trump administration is clearly sending a signal that the U.S. military can act at any time if necessary.
However, this “muscle show” not only makes Venezuela tense, but also makes the whole Latin American nerve tension. After all, the B-52 is not for patrol, it is a Cold War legacy, but now appears in the sky above the American continent, and the Latin American customary “American intervention suite” seems to be back.
Maduro didn't wait to be beaten. He immediately signed a mobilization order, recruited reserves, and strengthened the deployment of the national air defense system.
The Venezuelan military also publicly demonstrated exercises of the S-300 air defense system, although the system is outdated, but it is a statement – “even if you can’t fight it, it will make you unhealthy.”
What really complicates the situation is the three hands behind Maduro.
With three helping hands, Maduro is no longer alone
Maduro did not fight alone this time, and the three "forces" came up in succession, allowing the situation that seemed to be "unilateral crushing" to gradually become balanced.
The first was Colombian President Pedro, whose statement was very direct: “If the US troops invade, we will regard it as an insult to the entire region.”
Colombia was once the strongest ally of the United States, but Petro has repeatedly criticized the fate of America being “manipulated by external forces” after taking office.
The second place is Russia. In mid-October, the Russian Foreign Ministry publicly condemned the US action, saying that it "seriously undermined regional stability." Although there was no explicit commitment to military intervention, the outside world found that Russian special military advisers had quietly stationed in Caracas.
Just last month, the Russian Commission also signed the Strategic Partnership Treaty, where certain terms of military cooperation have not yet been disclosed.
Third, Brazil’s president, Lula, was the most influential. Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, with far greater geopolitical influence than other neighbors.
On October 20, Lula publicly opposed U.S. military intervention at the National Security Conference, emphasizing that "Latin American sovereignty is inviolable." When this sentence comes out, it is equivalent to "lifting the table" in front of the United States.
You know, Lula is not a staunch ally of Maduro. He is more like an "old man" who can't stand power interference. This time, he spoke not to endorse Maduro, but to gain voice for Latin America.
The joining of these three forces has transformed Venezuela from a “carnage of lambs” to a “brother-in-law with a mountain dependence,” which was exactly what the Trump administration had not expected.
The U.S. calculator is loud, but the cost may be higher
The Trump administration's operation this time can be said to be a "big gamble". While shouting "the United States wants to win" at home, it continues to increase its military strength in the Caribbean. Trump even said at a press conference: "If they don't cooperate, we have all the means."
In a word, tariffs, supply cuts, and even military strikes are all on the table. But the question is, can these means really be used?
The US military does have an overwhelming advantage, but fighting is not a game.
Venezuela, despite its weak military strength, is complex in terrain and has a broad mass base, and once it is plunged into a city war, the U.S. military will face the dirt of a lasting war.
Moreover, this is not Iraq or Afghanistan. This is the "backyard" a few hours' flight away from the United States. Any casualties and any cost will directly affect the 2026 US mid-term elections.
What is even more difficult is international public opinion. This time, the United States is using the banner of "fighting drug dealers", but it appears to be murderous in its actions. The international community has begun to be vigilant, and some member states of the European Parliament and the United Nations have questioned the US military actions.
If the United States goes to war rashly, the United States may face charges of "unilaterally using force without United Nations authorization."
The Pentagon has a reservative stance on whether to start a war, and the State Council is more inclined to "press not to act".
Moreover, from the point of view of the real interests, the war has no obvious "return."Venezuela's oil industry has receded, and the cost is much higher than in the Middle East and Africa if the U.S. wants to target resources.
Most importantly, the Maduro administration has long shifted energy cooperation to China and Iran, with the United States’ “economic benefits” basically zero.
So this military blockade, which seems to be “the U.S. counts,” is actually a “cost higher than profits” political betting.
ended
From the moment the B-52 flew to the Caribbean, Maduro’s fate seemed to be hanging in the air, but developments have shown us that even the strongest military force can hardly overcome a regional collective rebellion.
Latin American countries are rethinking their roles and are no longer willing to be “arranged audiences.”
Whether the Trump administration really dares to take that step depends on his unwillingness to pay the real price for this high-risk card.