On October 21st, Trump changed his mouth and said: Haven't decided whether to meet Putin yet。 It appears that "Tepu Club"The main reason is one: Putin wants too muchTrump understands clearly that he does not want to hold a “in vain” meeting.
Trump pointed out the problem directly. He said that Russia refused to stop fighting on the current front line, which was the biggest obstacle. He didn't want to hold meetings for the sake of meetings.
On the other side of Russia, Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, said: “There is no specific date for the meeting; there is a lot of complex preparation before the meeting.”
A senior European diplomat told Reuters:
"I guess Russia is asking too much, and the United States is also very clear that Trump will not negotiate any agreement in Budapest."
You see, even the spectator has seen that the price of Russia is too high, so high that the United States can not accept. and Trump is a wise businessman, he does not see this deal, just not go to the negotiating table.
Trump is supporting. Freezing the conflict.。He made it clear on October 20 that boundaries should be "drawn, fighting stopped, and soldiers should go home." This plan is very simple. It is to maintain a ceasefire on the current front line, so that no one will suffer and no one will take advantage of it.
Peskov has repeatedly said that Russia’s position is “always consistent”. what is the position? is to demand the total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from these areas of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Trump realized at once that Putin didn’t want to “freeze,” he wanted to “sweep.”
Trump is a master trading. He wrote a book called The Art of Trading. The core idea of the book is: Be ready to leave the negotiating table at any time. When the other party's asking price is too high, far exceeding your bottom line, the best choice is not to leave. Now, that's exactly what he's doing. He left the virtual negotiating table and told Putin: This business can't be negotiated.
In addition, Trump also has to consider the domestic situation. If he goes to meet Putin now and comes back empty-handed, or is even used by Putin for propaganda, the domestic opposition will violently attack him. Call him weak and talk to Russia. If he negotiates a deal that is bad for Ukraine, European allies will hate him, and pro-Ukraine groups at home will scold him.
Whatever you do is wrong, so it's better not to do it. Therefore, postponing the meeting is Trump's smartest and safest choice.
So, what conditions do Putin need to be "willing" to cease hostilities? Personally, there are three core conditions:
1. NATO must stop all aid to Ukraine
All weapons, ammunition, money and intelligence support must be stopped, and now Ukraine consumes a lot of goods on the battlefield every day.
According to data from the Kiel Institute for World Economics, from February 2022 to now, NATO's total aid to Ukraine is approximately US$360 billion, with the United States accounting for approximately 37%, making it the largest single donor. Among them, U.S. military assistance is approximately US$75 billion, including M1 Abrams tanks, Haima rockets, air defense systems, etc.
Once aid is cut, Ukraine will stop in a few weeks, with tanks without oil, cannons without cannons, soldiers without wages, which is equivalent to strangling the neck of Ukraine directly, and Russian soldiers without bloodshed can win.
2. NATO troops cannot enter Ukraine, and Russia will send people to the western border of Ukraine for verification
This condition is even more severe, meaning that Ukraine will never want to join NATO. Moreover, Russia has the right to send people and equipment to western Ukraine, such as Lviv Oblast, to check whether there are NATO forces.
This reminds us of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, just because the Soviet Union placed the missiles in Cuba next to the United States. The United States then strongly opposed, almost triggering the World War. Now, Russia is going to turn it up. It wants to have the power to verify at any time in the U.S. "background" (Ukraine).
3. Return all frozen Russian assets
This amount of money is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West froze about US $300 billion in Russia's overseas assets, almost half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves.
At the beginning of 2024, the EU spent a lot of time to bring the interests generated by the frozen Russian funds (about 3 billion euros) to Ukraine to buy weapons. Is it so difficult to just move a little interest to want to return all of the money? The West can’t promise at all. It’s not just a matter of money, it’s more about the face.
If the “TOPS” ended up, Ukraine was the worst hurt.Zelensky has been firmly opposed to a "freezing conflict," which he said would give Russia time to rearm and then launch a larger offensive. He was right. The 2014 Minsk Agreement "froze" the conflict between Ukraine and East Europe. As a result, Russia rallied its strength and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022.
European countries are also panicking. They are afraid that the war will go on indefinitely, and that Trump will really leave it alone. Europe is still dependent on Russia for energy and the United States for security. Now the two bosses can't talk about it, and Europe is caught in the middle, which is very uncomfortable.
China is neutral, persuading peace and promoting talks. However, with such a noise between the United States and Russia, the door to peace talks has become narrower. If we want to stand up and mediate, it will be extremely difficult.
The future of the situation may be two:
First, continue to upgrade. Seeing that the asking price fails, Russia may launch a larger offensive in an attempt to gain more leverage on the battlefield.
Second, Trump may use tougher measures, such as threatening to reduce aid to Ukraine, and forcing Ukraine to accept a reality that is beneficial to Russia.