The cabinet led by Gao Xiaobo is not even a "short-life cabinet", but also a "weak cabinet". as far as many nationals are very concerned, the foreign and defense policy of Japan after Gao Xiaobo's rule is the least to worry about.
Writing is not related.
On October 21, in the first round of voting for the Prime Minister of Japan's House of Representatives named by name, Takashi Takashi, President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, won 237 votes (a total of 465 seats in the House of Representatives), and won with more than half of the votes and was elected Japan's 104th Prime Minister.
A very dramatic political figure who won a very dramatic election.
01
The non-mainstream attack
The political career of Cao市早苗 is a non-mainstream counter-attack life drama, full of reversals and contradictions.
Takashi Saami was born in Nara Prefecture in 1961. His father was a company employee and his mother was a policeman. Her family is very ordinary, and none of her relatives are in politics. Such pure grassroots amateurs originated in a different class among the elite politicians and high-ranking Japanese politicians.
The early years of Gao's early-size experience are also not "elite". The student era was a "ghost fire boy" playing rock and driving a car, rather rebellious. until 1984 after graduating from the university, he entered the Japanese famous school called the rock of politicians, and studied at Matsuyama School, he took the path of the political elite very suddenly.
The political start of Gao's early morning was also quite twisted, initially entering politics as a non-party party. In 1994 he joined the newly formed Japanese largest opposition new party, and in 1996 he withdrew from the political opinion and moved to the self-government party, which was widely used.
The greatest “precious man” in the high market is Abe Abe.In 2006, the first time in the cabinet of High City Mornington, was to serve as the special minister in charge of the Cabinet of Abe. In 2011, High City Mornington, in order to support Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, withdrew from the membership of the "Clean and Policy Research Association".
In the self-government party philanthropic politics, parliamentarians "hopping" is not uncommon. however, at this time, the "Chiang and Policy Research Conference" was the first major party in the party, the high-market early morning clearly stated that the opposition leader of the valve,町村信孝 became the prime minister's candidate, and supported Abe's promise, can still be considered a political gamble.
As it turns out, Sanae Takaichi made the right bet.
In 2012, Abe was first elected president of the self-government party, and subsequently, he opened the "Abbey era" for eight years.High-School Morning Shui also received a rich return, serving as one of the "five positions" of the party's government chairman, the third in the party, the highest level of the party.
Soon after, Takashi Zaomiao became the Minister of General Affairs of Abe's cabinet. This is an important cabinet position with a wide range of powers. Under normal circumstances, the cabinet ranks second only to the Prime Minister and is nominally "below one person." In addition, Takashi Zaonae served in this important position for 1066 consecutive days, becoming the longest-serving minister of general affairs in history.
After Abe stepped down in 2020, Takaichi Sanae began his sprint to become prime minister. After running for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in 2021, he suffered repeated defeats and battles until he successfully reached the top this time.
It is worth mentioning that sanae takaichi, the first female prime minister of Japan, did not win by gender identity.
She has never been an advocate of feminism or feminism.She is conservative on gender-political issues, resolutely opposed to the system of "parents and surnames", opposed to women inherit the Emperor, calling for "women should return to their families and have more than three children" and so on, is very unwelcome by Japanese feminists.
Therefore, she was not only ruthlessly criticized by Japanese women's rights leader, Nao Chihuahua, as "the ass of men's rights politicians", but also hoped to be Japan's first female prime minister, openly resisted by women's rights organizations, and was called "expulsion of female nationality".
However, Takashi Zaomiao's marriage life is not conservative.In 2004, he married and changed his surname to the parliamentary, Yamamoto. In 2017, the two divorced, and she changed her surname. In 2021, she married again, and asked Yamamoto to change the surname to "Gokyo".
上野千鹤子 won't let go of the high-market early-size twisted marriage, criticizing her "using marriage to make political codes, but requiring ordinary women to abide by the tradition of 'husband singing women follow', the essence is to alienate the gender rules as a power tool", after all, it is the marriage, divorce, remarriage, and the husband's surname are not right.
Of course, without the support of the women’s rights camp, it did not affect the way high-market early sunset climbed, but instead made her conservative position more clear. This is a plus in the situation of chaotic Japanese politics.
02
The first half of the election campaign: the inner-party election
Takashi Saami's biggest intra-party opponent on the road to prime minister this time is Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. He is a strong enemy who "takes all ages".
Shinjiro Koizumi, born in 1981, was born in a political family. His grandfather was the director of the Defense Agency. His father, Junichiro Koizumi, was a very popular former prime minister and was a well-known "official of three generations."
In 2007, after returning from studying at Columbia University in the United States, Koizumi Shinjiro served as his father's secretary, which is an orthodox political family elite line. In 2019, he joined the cabinet for the first time at the age of 38, and his political career was smooth. His family background and experience can be regarded as a model of the traditional elite of the Liberal Democratic Party, so he has been supported by many political predecessors.
Moreover, this representative of the new generation of the Liberal Democratic Party's "noble son" has an excellent image and temperament, and is not inferior to his brother Kotaro Koizumi, who became a film and television star. The young face with a fresh image naturally attracts young people and is also very popular with women.
However, empty political views and hesitation are Koizumi Shinjiro's weakness.Compared with takaichi sanae, who is determined to express his political views, Koizumi Shinjiro's political views are very vague, and he has been criticized as an "idol politician" who "goes around".
For example, in dealing with economic issues only the widespread talk of "give future hope"; in the deeply sick philanthropic political issue, he promised reform but no substantive measures, often hanging on the mouth of "environmental issues" "low carbonism" is also considered a fashionable slogan to avoid national reality concerns.
However, Takashi Zaomiao, even on extremely controversial positions and opinions, dares to speak bluntly. The most typical example is that when it comes to the issue of factional political reform, Takashi Zaomiao clearly opposed the reform and unexpectedly won the intra-party election.
Politics is a long-standing structural issue in Japan's self-government party politics, and it is highly controversial.On the one hand, the lack of transparency in political decision-making and the operation of political funds is plagued; on the other hand, the balance between the valves is a long-term mechanism to avoid political division and is difficult to shake.
Since the late period of Abe's administration, the Liberal Democratic Party cabinet has repeatedly broken out black gold scandals derived from faction politics, which has triggered a series of political storms, and is also the main reason why the Liberal Democratic Party has lost more than half of its seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Therefore, the political reform within the party has become an important focus of the prime minister election.
The public opinion voice of reformist valve politics inside and outside the Liberal Democratic Party is very high, and it also has a strong moral position. There is no shortage of new generations of members of the Liberal Democratic Party who advocate reform, and even some senior high-level officials have the heart to promote reform. However, the result was very treacherous. The Liberal Democratic Party, which lost the parliamentary election due to the black gold scandal, finally elected a conservative president who opposed the political reform of the opposition valve.
Arguably speaking, Takashi's conservative stance against radical reforms on the grounds of maintaining unity is not pleasing. However, as their leader, Shinjiro Koizumi, has empty promises of reform but no specific policy propositions. The reformists want to change but do not know how to change it. It is not as convincing as "maintaining unity" that "should not be moved lightly".
The opposition's ideas for political reform may not be wise and may even be wrong. But at least she has clear political opinions.
Knowing that this Japanese Prime Minister election is a life-and-death battle for the Liberal Democratic Party in the minority in both houses of parliament, what is needed at this time is a practical leader who knows "what to do", not a talking master who only knows "how to be good".
Thus, under the leadership advantage of the first round of the party election, Xiaoping lost the second round with a difference of seven votes.His vague, empty political stance could not win the support of the middle party and could only arm with the loss of the prime minister's throne.
03
The second half of the election campaign: parliamentary elections
As the Liberal Democratic Party is not the majority party in parliament, takaichi sanae's victory in the inner-party election is not a direct ticket to the Prime Minister's Office. The real test is to win alliances with other parties in parliament. Her rejection of faction reform is a huge obstacle to winning allies.
Almost at the same time that Takaichi Sanae won the party election, Komeito Party, which had been allied with the Liberal Democratic Party for 25 years, announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition. The reason for the "cracking hole" of the public alliance is that the Komeito Party is unwilling to be dragged down by the black gold scandal of the Liberal Democratic Party's faction politics.
After all, the Komeito Party has a deep belief relationship with the Buddhist Nichiren Sect, and advocates clean politics. It even took the "Integrity Party" as its official name, and has long been deeply dissatisfied with the black gold scandal tied by the Liberal Democratic Party. Takaichi sanae's conservative attitude towards political reform is the last straw that broke the camel's back.
After the Communist Party abandoned the "public self-alliance", the Communist Party completely became a parliamentary minority party.The three opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, the Vichy Society and the National Democratic Party in the House of Representatives total 210 votes, exceeding the People's Party's 196 votes.
The opposition party's confidence in "covet" the prime minister's throne has increased greatly, and the leader of the National Democratic Party, Yuichiro Tamaki, even announced that he was "ready to become prime minister." It can be seen that the Liberal Democratic Party's situation is critical.
At this time, High-Market Mornington showed outstanding political coordination capabilities. She locked the 35-seat National Democratic Party in parliament as an ally. It is a right-wing political party with Osaka as its headquarters and strong local colours. It is close to the values of the self-government party and easy to communicate. 35 seats are only eight more than the third-largest opposition National Democratic Party. It is sufficient, and the “price” is definitely much lower than the 148-seat Constitutional Democratic Party.
In terms of the "deal" with the Reform Association, Gao Shi Zao Miao's flexibility is remarkable.There are three final costs for obtaining the restoration:
Satisfied the local political demands of the Reform Council and agreed to grant Osaka the status of "deputy capital";
Reduce the number of "proportional lawmakers" (members of parliament through political party votes), which is conducive to the concessions of the small party electoral system;
The self-government party completely abolished corporate and group contributions.
The first two are not difficult to understand, but the most critical one is the third, which cuts off the main channel for the Liberal Democratic Party to obtain political donations. Although it was not directly operated on factionalism, it also shook the economic foundation of factionalism.
That is to say, takaichi sanae, who has a conservative attitude towards the inner-party political reform, started an important inner-party political reform with the support of "external forces" and successfully gained the right to form a cabinet. This leaves those die-hards who are more hard-line and conservative about party reform speechless.
In the process of climbing Japanese prime minister in the high market, showing a hard and straightforward political stance and a flexible and pragmatic political wrist, the supporters viewed as "Japanese Mrs. Thatcher" and is not a proverb.
However, it is difficult for Takashi to reproduce Mrs. Thatcher's glory. It is not about personal abilities, but the fragile political situation that makes her more like a transitional figure.
04
Conclusion: It is inevitable to be constrained by all parties
Not all political transitional figures are irrelevant, but each is like a thin ice, and the situation of the high market is quite difficult.
The Democratic Party lacks firm allies in parliament, and the governing foundation is fragile. The Socialist Party and the Democratic Party are "outside cooperation", i.e. cooperation is limited to parliamentary prime minister nomination elections, rather than joining the governing coalition of the cabinet.
In other words, the Reform Council is still an opposition party and may "counterattack" the Liberal Democratic Party at any time.Whether the two sides can establish such a stable relationship as the public alliance, will have to go through a series of tests, in short, it is difficult to succeed.
The support of the high-ranking early-foot party is also hard to say solid.
Her main support forces are the "Old Abe faction" and the "Aso faction", which have many policy differences. For example, the Aso faction criticized the "Abenomics" inherited by the old Abe faction for excessively relying on loose monetary policy and needed to be "revised". There is a suspense whether Takashi Haraimu, who is "more Abe than Abe", can have long-term cooperation with the Aso faction.
In addition to the old-fashioned pit of the party politics, the challenges of the new generation such as the new generation and the next generation have always existed.After two rounds of difficult elections, the high-market early senator, the ability to control the politics within the party is limited, and it is difficult to avoid the elbows of all parties.
Finally, and most importantly, the support rate of Japanese citizens for the Liberal Democratic Party is low. The main dissatisfaction stems from the economy.
If the high-inflation economic pain caused by high inflation could not be relieved in a timely manner, she would not have had a high support rate and much room for decline.But what is Japan's economic problem that can be easily solved?No matter what the economic situation is bad, the pot that loses popular support must be her back, which is the fate of elected politicians.
Therefore, the cabinet led by takaichi sanae is a "weak cabinet" if not a "short-lived cabinet". As for Japan's foreign and national defense policies, which many Chinese people are very concerned about and after takaichi sanae took office, they are the least worried about.
Despite the frequent change of cabinet in Japan, the big policy policy has a strong continuity. Even a strong cabinet is also gradually adjusted, how much can a weak cabinet be moved by the many sides?
In short, the position of the prime minister of the high market is not easy, it is harder to maintain.
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