editor's noteRecently, Professor Kim Huangyun of the College of International Relations of the People's University held a speech in Shanghai, sharing his knowledge of the current world situation.
(Observers/Observers of the Network)
Shanghai is my second home, I studied at the International Politics Department of Fudan University in 1980-1984, Fudan is my mother school, so I am very happy to come to Shanghai every time. Today, taking this opportunity, I share a look at the international situation. Now the international situation, everyone should feel, especially mess, I conclude, the world mess mainly has six points.
The first chaos is war.
The first is the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been fought for more than three years and is still going on. Trump wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, he really wants to, so he works hard to solve the Russia-Ukraine war. I feel that although he works hard, he cannot solve the Russia-Ukraine issue. This contradiction still exists, and the war will continue.
The Russian-Ukrainian War was the largest since the end of the Cold War. By the end of July, the CIA estimated that more than 700,000 people were probably killed in Ukraine; that Russia was estimated to be about 350,000 in a second ratio, and that more than 1 million people were killed on both sides combined. According to the war’s casualties ratio of 3:1, then the injury could be more than 3 million, then it would have been a total of about 4 million families damaged by the war, which is very devastating.
There is also a war in the Middle East, with Israel as the center, fighting many people, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi armed forces, as well as the former Assad government in Syria and Iran. So far, Israel has won military victory.
The reversal of the outcome of the Syrian civil war has changed and even subverted the regional pattern.
Hamas was almost destroyed; the Houthis were still fighting, but Hezbollah was also destroyed; the Assad regime was overthrown; Iran and Israel were fighting for 12 days in June, and I should say Iran’s losses were even greater, but I don’t think the war is over, because Iran should have nuclear weapons, now it should be its national policy, and Israel will absolutely not allow it to have nuclear weapons, so it will still be fighting.
Plus there's war near us. One was between May 7 and 10, when Pakistan and India fought for four days. This conflict was modest but far-reaching; There was also the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia in July. In short, they are all wars. These wars have an important feature: they all take place in the most important Eurasia continent.
In ancient times, the study of international relations was actually called "transcendental", Sochian, Zhang, ghost grain, what they do is "transcendental". There are many schools in international relations, but no matter what school, they believe that there are two things: first, human nature is unchanged; second, geography is unchanged. So in international relations geographical factors are important, so there is geopolitical theory. According to geopolitical theory, the most important place on the earth, is the Eurasian continent where we are. We can see the Eurasian continent as the "world island", the rest is called the "foreign island", Africa, Australia, America these are "foreign islands".
There are three main parts of Eurasia: Europe, Asia and the Middle East; all three are at war now. This is the first characteristic of today's world. I will talk about phenomena first, and after that, we will analyze the essence behind them. The phenomenon is that everything is in chaos and "war".
The second chaos is the civil war.
In the Eurasian continent, in addition to the war between countries, there is also civil war. For example, Myanmar on the south side is fighting, and the Burmese army is fighting with its domestic "people's army", including the daring allies of the Kachin State, the Kachin Independence Army, every day.
If you look at the map, you can see that Kyaukphyu Port on the west coast of Myanmar is an excellent deep-water port. This port was negotiated when Aung San Suu Kyi was in office. The port is under the control of China, and the franchise period is about 49 years. The sovereignty belongs to Myanmar, and we are responsible for the investment. That port is in very good natural condition, but it used to be run badly. We won the franchise, but now we can't invest because we are always at war. If he won, it would be fine, but he still couldn't win. That place is yours today, and his tomorrow, always change. In this way, China can't invest, and even the "the belt and road initiative" project here can't be done.
If well constructed, China can bypass the Malacca Strait, oil from Africa and the Middle East can come directly from the Malacca port, and then repair the roads, railways, cable, oil pipes, natural gas pipes directly to Kunming. If it can be constructed, then Kunming will develop well and become a centralized land. But now it can not be done, our country's current policy is still "not interfering with internal affairs", so it does not care about it.
More on the African side, like in Libya, where Gaddafi was nervous when he was the leader and was later destroyed by the West, where Libya was split into two parts and fought every day; Congo was in a civil war; Sudan was in a civil war.
The third mess is that the United States goes unknown.This has a great impact on the world.
Today's United States is an unprecedented bipartisan battle. In the past, the Democratic and Republican parties also fought against each other, but they both talked about dignity. Now the two parties are fighting among themselves without dignity at all, and they are all trying to kill their opponents.
Frankly speaking, this matter was first initiated by the Democratic Party. In the past four years when Trump was in office, the Democratic Party really tried to punish him. Biden's Justice Department sued Trump, and four Democratic states, including New York and California, sued him on a total of 91 counts. According to statistics from lawyers in the United States, if all of them were established, Lao Te could even spend 1488 years in prison.
So Lao Te is also in a hurry. He is not "I, Hu Hansan, is back again" now. After the "second entry into the palace", Lao Te also began to trick people and asked the US Department of Justice to sue Obama. This is the fingertips. I've seen Obama, he's quite honest, and he doesn't even have the courage to do bad things. So suing Obama now is obviously nonsense, and the quality of American politics has declined? There used to be a little boundary, but now there is no boundary.
US National Guard stationed in Washington, D.C.
Then there is a great contradiction between the federal and local governments in the United States. Recently, Trump took control of the police department in Washington, the capital of the United States, sent the National Guard in, and directly took over the police department in Washington, D.C. There were also many protests against * in Washington, but they were all useless, and old Terry ignored them.
Lao Tzu also wants to catch "illegal immigrants" and set California and other places as a model, but California's economy relies on "illegal immigrants." This is a fierce fight between the two parties, a fierce fight between the federal and state governments.
Three Republican states announced that they had sent troops to help Trump take over Washington, D.C., and the Democrats were both upset, so the Americans were talking about not having a civil war and not allowing the United States to be separated later according to the political positions of the Red and Blue States, and the United States was divided into two countries - "USA" and "USB".
In addition, the conflict between the elite and the people in the United States is still very large; racial conflicts are also serious. I personally believe that the internal divisions in the United States have now reached heights rarely seen in history. Society is dividing, and at this time a "weird and very willful" president appears. Previous presidents would take care of the interests of all parties, but his desire was to be happy and not to take care of others.
Moreover, the people he used were also very strange. For example, the current Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, first served as a platoon leader in the National Guard, later became a captain of the National Guard, and only became a major in the Army Reserve after his service ended. Knowing that the National Guard does not belong to the Federal Army is almost equivalent to appointing a person without any military background as Secretary of Defense, which is unprecedented in American history. How uncomfortable do you think those old generals feel: You are not even my soldier, and you still care about me? But he really does, and he has a bad temper.
The Secretary of Homeland Security appointed by Trump is also strange. The Department of Homeland Security is the second-largest department in the United States, and it is important. The current secretary is named Noam, from South Dakota, and is of beauty origin. She has a university diploma, but speaks like an analphabet. She told CNN, “Chinese are too bad, they harassed us in the United States 2000 years ago.”
So, the president Trump is very exceptional, he is not a normal president. American scholars say: there are 45 presidents, 44 of whom are in one category, and Trump is a separate category. Trump is actually a counterpart in the history of the United States, and others are the "go-to-go" inside the United States, so the relationship between the two sides is bad.
These contradictions, coupled with this particular lack of reliance, directly lead to a consequence: Americans themselves do not see the direction of this country. Americans do not see clearly, then we foreigners do not see clearly.
As of today, I will tell the truth that the United States is still a little stronger than ours, and it is still "the United States is strong and I am weak." Coupled with historical reasons, the United States is definitely the leader in the world. If we compare the earth to a "village", he is the "village committee director and village party secretary" with shoulders. Think about it, if the top leader of the unit sets one set in the morning and one set in the afternoon, and you don't know which one to implement, and he scolds you every one he implements, then the people below will be at a loss and will be very bad for the development of the unit. This is the third chaos in the world.
The fourth disorder is the poor relationship between the great powers.
The relationship between the great powers is the most important in international relations, but the relationship between the great powers is bad now. Russia and the United States, Europe and Japan have broken their faces, and Lotte hopes that the relationship between Russia and the United States will soften a little, but if it will eventually soften, I don’t know.
Although China has not "torn face" with major powers, its relations with the United States, Japan, and India are not so good, as everyone on earth knows. Looking at the relations between Europe and the United States, their internal relations are actually not good. Europe and the United States are the "core relationship" of the West and are equal to the Party Central Committee of the West; the two lines of the "Party Central Committee" are fighting internally and divided, so the world is of course unstable.
The fifth chaos is that the world economy fluctuates greatly and the capital market fluctuates greatlyThe shares are also falling sharply.
The sixth chaos is like more failures in national governance。
In the past 100 years, Chinese people have had a problem, and they always feel that "Chinese people are the worst". This is a tradition formed in the May 4th era-taking pleasure in scolding Chinese people.
The fourth group of people have a tradition to inherit, that is, patriotism; but they have an attitude that is also clearly wrong, that is, to deny the Chinese culture altogether.
What were the methodological problems of people during the May 4th Movement? They always compare the worst parts of China with the best parts of the West. Moreover, they are not looking at one Western country, but comparing 20 to 30 countries-including 22 Western developed countries, plus Japan, which has successfully modernized but is not Western. But they don't see people from the third world in their eyes.
The third problem is double standards. Many of them cited three negative examples when scolding China, and then characterized all China as bad; if the same three things happened in the United States, they became three "isolated incidents." If this kind of person becomes a student under me, he will not be allowed to graduate in undergraduate courses. This is a basic academic mistake.
One of the fifty-four movement representatives.
The reality in the world is that most countries are badly governed. Our GDP per capita is about $1,3 thousand. I tell you that the world’s 8.1 billion people are now ranked by GDP per capita, with only about 1.2 billion people ahead of us. But the problem is that international chaos overlaps the previous governance problems, those countries that were already ranked behind us, now will get worse, with a serious consequence – the rise of illegal immigration.
In June, the United Nations Refugee Agency released a report that war refugees have reached the highest since the Second World War, mainly because of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Ukraine had about 13 million war refugees. Of which about 3 million went to Russia, 10 million went to Europe. At the same time, Gaza, Myanmar and other places also continued to generate new war refugees.
At the same time, economic illegal immigration due to poverty has also reached a new high. Every day, groups of African brothers cross the Mediterranean Sea on broken boats to Europe; many people in the Middle East walk directly to Europe on two legs. So the pressure on illegal immigrants in Europe is very high now.
In the direction of the Americas, although Trump is cracking down on illegal immigrants, people are still heading there. Although we don't have much media coverage, the problem is equally serious now. In addition, we can see Burmese traveling to Australia, and our country is now becoming a destination for immigrants.
This is the great change that has not been seen in a hundred years in today’s world’s six great disasters,” the Party Central Committee’s basic judgment on the current international situation said.
Our new China is a relatively special country, a country established through a revolution.China's regime is not an election, not a coup, not a foreign invasion, it is the Communist Party of China that conducted a revolution, established this power, so China is a "post-revolutionary society".
A "post-revolutionary society" has a characteristic. Everything talks about "mobilization", and to "mobilization", a "consensus" must be formed. Therefore, before doing things internally and externally, the country must have a "consensus". Therefore, we have a characteristic, that is, every stage will form an overall view of the international situation.
Before the reform and opening up, during the time of President Mao, our view of the international situation was called “the era of revolution and war”. You may be younger than you know, I came from the era of the Cultural Revolution, when the verbal Zen was “revolution, war”. The logic behind it is: imperialism means war, war triggers revolution, revolution stops war.
After reform and opening up, Deng Xiaoping said the theme of the era was not "revolution and war", the theme of the era was "peace and development".
But now it is not appropriate to summarize the theme of the outside world as "peace and development", which is clearly inconsistent with the facts; but we do not want to go back to the judgment of "revolution and war" or to continue to say "peace and development", then we have to have a new summary, so that we put the world into a "great change without century."
On December 28, 2017, * delivered an important speech at the working meeting to receive diplomatic envoys abroad in 2017. In this speech, * put forward for the first time that "looking at the world, we are facing major changes unseen in a century", so the expression "major changes unseen in a century" is first referred to "diplomatic mouth". Then in June 2018, * pointed out to the whole party and the whole country at the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference that at present, our country is in the best period of development since modern times, and the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. The two are intertwined and agitating each other simultaneously. Since then, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has officially written and confirmed it, and added: "The changes of a century are accelerating." This is our party's current "standard answer" to the international situation. The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, and it is accelerating. Remember, this is the total judgment.
We propose that today’s world is in a situation of great change without a century of history, and the international landscape is in a period of change during which the new and old forces have long disappeared.
Eastern Wind 5C and other countries' heavyweights debuted, a huge earthquake shook the world
Historically, the West has been the most powerful in the past 500 years. Everyone think back, from the era of the Great Navigation to the present, the West has indeed developed well. In recent hundreds of years, major international events have occurred in the West, such as the Great Navigation, the Industrial Revolution, and several major social revolutions (including the revolutions of Britain, France, the United States, and Russia). In addition, the protagonists of major conflicts such as the Hundred Years War between Britain and France, the Napoleonic Wars, World War I, World War II and the Cold War were mostly Western countries. 500 years ago, several great maritime empires emerged: Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands; after the Industrial Revolution, a group of great powers emerged: Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Czarist Russia, the United States, and Japan. The great powers fought each other and eventually formed two superpowers. Throughout the process, China was very marginalized.
In the past 500 years, great events have happened in the West, the protagonists are in the West, and human progress is also in the West. Including modern human industries, basically all come from the West. Moreover, the system and governance, including urban management methods, are also the same as those of the West; At present, the concepts widely recognized in the world, such as *, freedom, market and rule of law, are all from the West, and even our country's national philosophy, Marxism, is also from the West.
To admit that the West has indeed done a good job over the past 500 years, we must learn from the West. However, the latest situation now is that the balance of power in the world has undergone "east and west", and this is the core content of "major changes unseen in a century."
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