At night, gold and silver fell.
Spot gold fell more than 5% intraday, the largest intraday drop since August 2020, and fell below $4,120 per ounce; Spot silver fell even more, falling more than 7% intraday and falling below $49 an ounce.
A big shadow line on the move, almost swallowed the increase in October.
However, this round of gold master ascension is $ 3,400 / ounce began, has been pulled to 4,300 only the first time suffered a big step back, with everyone's familiar words called, the head of the dragon, can low breath?
Don't worry, analyze the reasons first.
The main reason is that the Russian conflict could end.
In fact, during the daytime on Tuesday, this signal had already appeared on the Chinese Internet and was discussed.
The source of the news is that Chinese mercenaries in Ukraine have been dispersed and returned to the location.
This news was reminded by me in the live broadcast at noon on Tuesday.
But the rest of Russia is still fighting, and there is not much discussion on the outer internet.
By Tuesday night, the message was clear.
Zelensky and European countries issued a statement, basically agreeing to follow Trump's call for an "immediate ceasefire" and willing to use the current actual line of contact between the two armies as the starting point for negotiations.
The most critical point is that before, it only used the "interest" on frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine, but now it states that "the principal can also be used." This is obviously an exchange condition. If Russia does not come to talk, then the principal will likely be confiscated. These assets are worth about 260 billion euros.
This statement is the core event of this round of gold and silver.
Of course, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not end with a statement, but this may be the closest chance to peace. It depends on whether Russia wants to talk about it.
Gold is only a small part of this Russian-Ukrainian play.
Gold's longer-term expectation lies in the collapse of 'belief in the dollar.'
In the 1960s and 1970s, similar things happened. The US dollar was flooded with liquidity and the Federal Reserve's independence was lost. Therefore, central banks of various countries began to increase their holdings of gold and reduce their holdings of US dollar assets based on concerns about the depreciation of the US dollar and the uncertainty of the geographical situation. Both are very similar to the current situation.
In terms of carving a boat and seeking a sword, the same thing has happened before, so naturally there are traces to follow and predict.
HSBC recently stated in a commodity outlook report that gold's upward momentum is expected to continue into 2026. The driving forces behind it include strong gold purchases by central banks, continued fiscal concerns in the United States and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of 5000 US dollars/ounce.
UBS gave a target price of $4,700 per ounce.
In short, the long-term trend, gold is still rising, and in the short term, the main rise of this round of rising may pause for a while.
My point is that as long as Trump is still around, then don't be bearish on gold easily.
Even if you step back for a short time, it may be an opportunity to reverse and pick up people.
Usually according to the trend, the gold step back 10-15 points, are normal, today only 5 points, back step is far from enough.
Don’t worry, friends, there’s a chance.
Domestic gold prices can be referred to as the possibility of stabilization around 850. Personal views are for reference only, and please do not use them as a basis for buying.