[Global Times Special Correspondent in France Shang Kaiyuan Global Times Special Correspondent Yue Wen] Editor's Note: French politics is once again in tension this autumn. Prime Minister Le Korney has experienced several power "roller coasters" in a month. The new government he led barely survived the vote on the no-confidence motion last week, but the 2026 budget review, which will begin on October 24, is still hanging like a boulder above the center camp led by President Macron. Since breaking the traditional party pattern with the attitude of "transcending the left and right" in 2017, the centrist faction led by Macron once became the center of French political power. However, after the two National Assembly elections in 2022 and 2024, the centrist government fell into the dilemma of "suspended governance". The left, center and right groups stood up in a "three-pronged confrontation", and the centrist political power gradually diminished and lost its dominant position. In the past two years, the French government has replaced five prime ministers. In Europe, some pessimists worry that France's political instability will not only weaken itself, but also endanger Europe's cohesion; but there are also optimistic voices that political shocks will instead provide France with an opportunity to reshape its political culture.
“Cutting Deficits” and “Calming the Public Opinion” inequalities
On October 16, French Prime Minister Le Corney was dismissed by 18 votes in the National Assembly vote, reluctant to escape two motions of mistrust. He had already experienced several “cruises” of power in just a month: on September 9 was appointed as Prime Minister by President Macron, on October 6 resigned due to the blockade of the cabinet, and on October 10 was again ordered to form the “Le Corney II government”.
In the face of a two-fold motion of distrust from both left wings, Le Corneille was forced to announce a “suspension of pension reform” in exchange for the abstention of the majority of French Socialist MPs. This move stabilized the situation, but was viewed by public opinion as a short-term compromise in exchange for the right to political survival. Socialist leader Olivier Fouillet said the move “avoided a greater crisis”, but still stressed that parliamentarians “abstention does not equal support”.
According to the French newspaper, Le Corneille “experienced a monastic solitude” on the parliamentary table – an empty seat connected on the middle party seat he should have been supported; and two left-wing MPs turning up to speak, forcing Parliamentary Chairman Yael Brown-Piveau to constantly knock to maintain order. Le Corneille warned: “Either launch a real debate or put the country in crisis – it’s up to you.” He accused the opposition of “abduction of budgetary procedures” and called for a return to reason. However, the results of the vote just announced that the French left party “doesn’t succumb to France” would submit a third proposal to dismiss the President of the Republic.
There are multiple reasons why the differences between the center and the left and right, extreme left and extreme right are difficult to bridge. First of all, Le Monde reported that French politics has long shown a "majority presidential" situation, that is, the victory of the presidential election often directly leads to the victory of its party in subsequent parliamentary elections, thus gaining a parliamentary majority. Even after the centrist lost its dominant position, lawmakers on the left and right failed to effectively check and balance the president through cross-party alliances.
Moreover, France's current political culture is not in itself conducive to consensus-building. According to Le Monde, unlike the multi-party system in some Nordic countries or Germany, France has long lacked the tradition of cross-ideological alliance, and the culture of compromise is relatively rare among the French elite. Despite Macron's call for "article-by-article consultation" to push for cooperative legislation, the insistence of all parties on the commitment of core voters makes it difficult to form a comprehensive alliance.
At the same time, economic problems have made the political crisis worse. France's public expenditure accounts for nearly 60% of its gross domestic product (GDP), and its fiscal deficit ratio has long exceeded the EU ceiling of 3%. Energy transition, social subsidies, local finance and public medical expenditure have all continued to intensify financial pressure. Although the suspension of pension reform can ease social tensions, it reduces the feasibility of deficit reduction. Once the budget involves tax increases or local funding cuts, the government is bound to face another wave of protests. In this way, the centrist government is trapped in the inequality of "deficit reduction" and "appeasing public opinion".
French historian Jill Richard wrote in Le Monde that France is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of national identity. Long-term structural unemployment, economic insecurity and social tearing have gradually disintegrated the cornerstone that once supported the French Republic.
Only 13% of French people consider themselves "centrists"
Since the foundation of the Fifth Republic in 1958, its system has been designed to strengthen the presidential power to overcome the ills of parliamentary division and frequent change of government during the Fourth Republic, however, although the president has constitutional tools such as dissolving the National Assembly, appointing the prime minister and exercising extraordinary power in times of crisis, the government still has to rely on the parliamentary majority to function effectively.
This “right co-government” has formed the political norm for more than half a century in France. The left emphasizes social justice and redistribution, and the right defends market freedom and national order. Political power cyclically rotates between the two, forming a stable bipolar pattern. In contrast, the medians have long been viewed as “medians without passion and stance”, acting as conciliators rather than dominators in power structures.
In 2017, the rise of Macron broke this pattern. He became the first leader in the history of the Fifth Republic to win the presidential election on a centrist route and receive parliamentary majority support. This "political breakthrough" stems from the convergence of multiple conditions: first, the trust of the traditional big party collapsed, the left-wing Socialist Party lost its social foundation due to blurred lines and internal divisions during Hollande's term, and the right-wing Republican Party suffered damage to the credibility of candidate Fillon's wife's "empty pay" scandal; second, French voters are generally tired of the long-term confrontation between left and right and resonate with the political narrative of "transcending differences."
Macron, a former Minister of Economy, has both technocratic temperament and can call himself a reformer. He is good at cross-factional integration, absorbing moderates from the Socialist Party and the Republican Party, and winning public expectations with the attitude of "neither left nor right". He advocated replacing ideological disputes with pragmatism: advocating openness and equality in the social field, implementing tax cuts in economic policies, relaxing labor laws and regulations, and encouraging innovative investment; At the international level, emphasis is placed on revitalizing European integration. This kind of "mixed governance", which is compatible with the spirit of social liberalism and market reform, once made the centrist jump to the power center.
However, the so-called “Macron-style intermediate” is not intermediate politics in the traditional sense. It is neither a liberalism advocated by former President Dustin nor a Christian democracy represented by Beirut, but a “macronism” centered on the president’s personality. What is “macronism”? Charles Rodwell, a member of the Renaissance Party, said: “It represents a liberal economic policy, a firm pro-European stance, a determination to promote national reforms, and a strong attitude on security issues.”
French media analysis said that there are hidden dangers behind the centrist "political breakthrough". The "Kadima Party of the Republic"(the predecessor of today's French Renaissance Party), established in 2017, achieved an absolute majority in the National Assembly, but lacks a solid organizational and ideological foundation. It is more like a "presidential election machine" than an institutionalized political party. Therefore, as the popularity of Macron, a core figure, fluctuated, the party quickly revealed its vulnerability.
After the 2022 National Assembly elections, the centrists led by Macron lost their absolute majority and were forced to form alliances with other political parties on specific issues or individual cases. The early elections in 2024 have further solidified the "three-pole structure" of French politics: the left-wing alliance, the centrist group and the far-right "National Alliance" stand side by side, and the centrist no longer has an advantage.
After the president dissolved Parliament, divisions within the center camp deepened. Former Prime Minister Edward Philippe publicly called for early presidential elections and announced his candidacy; Gabriel Attar, another former prime minister who was once regarded as Macron's right-hand man and now Secretary-General of the Ba 'ath Party, also publicly stated recently: "Like many French people, I no longer understand the president's decisions." Le Monde stated that "competition within the middle camp has begun" and various political machines have built walls and divided operations for the power struggle in 2027.
In May this year, French newspaper Le Figaro quoted a survey by the country's polling agency Odoxa-Backbone as saying that 82% of French people believed that "Macron doctrine" would disappear after the end of Macron's term, and only 40% believed it constituted a real political trend of thought. Surveys show that even within the Ba 'ath Party, 59% of supporters agree with this judgment. In addition, only 13% of the French people surveyed who consider themselves to be "centrist" are considered to be only 13%. Le Figaro called this trend "the return of the left and right divisions and the collapse of the center." The report believes that the political self-positioning of French society will return to the traditional left and right axis in the future.
"May give birth to a more cooperative political model"
Macron has repeatedly stressed that he will complete the current presidency until 2027. The French media’s “Great Dialogue” website that in the era of the “tri-polar confrontation” between the left, the middle and the right, “the biggest challenge for the middle party is how the “post-Macron era” can remain united. Though these successors grew up in the framework of the “macronism”, they lack a genuine political culture of the middle party with a compromise balance as the core.”Articles say that the National Assembly in 2024 dissolved the deep cracks of the French middle party, power competition, line differences and personal ambitions make the French worried whether it would repeat the collapse of the Social Party at the end of the German term.
At the same time, the external environment of the middle group is more dangerous. Some people believe that France is still a country with "ideology-driven politics", and the centrists must face the populist wave on the left and right wings-these forces win the hearts of the people with simplistic slogans and emotional narratives. In this atmosphere, the attitude of "neither revolutionary nor reactionary, only seeking rationality and stability" has been difficult to impress voters.
The “Big Dialogue” website analyzes that “the middle camp to rebuild trust must get rid of administrative and personalised inertia, and propose new narratives and reforms that can inspire social resonance. If it continues to fall into the struggle of the faction and the empty program, the middle party or will be broken down into several small parties, can only rely on the ex-elected coalition to survive.” The article believes that before the 2027 presidential election, the unity of a candidate will determine the fate of the middle camp. And when the core figures of the balance of the maintenance system leave the stage, whether this central group can continue, is still the biggest political unknown in France.
Spain's El Pais commented that the institutional and financial crisis not only weakened France, but also endangered European cohesion. Against the background of the rise of far-right political parties in many European countries, France, as one of the pillar forces in the process of European integration, is crucial to the strength of its new government.
In an interview with Le Monde, Loic Burundieu, a professor of political science at Paris I University, analyzed that the new French National Assembly is "no more difficult to govern than most European national parliaments". On the contrary, it provides France with an opportunity to get rid of the long-standing political culture of "refusing consultation and dialogue". He believes that the current parliament is composed of three political groups of equal size, which actually conforms to the logic of proportional representation. It appears "ungovernable" if measured by the framework of the Fifth Republic; However, compared with mixed parliaments such as Germany and Italy, this situation is not abnormal, but may give birth to a more cooperative political model.
Burundi emphasized that the problem is not in the system, but in the history of the transformation of political culture, which tells us that political culture will not change in a few days.