Today we focus on the third bulletin: Trump threatens to cut off the supply of aircraft parts to China.
Sino-US trade friction will enter a new round in October 2025. On October 9, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would strengthen export control measures on rare earths and related technologies and equipment. This move directly affected the chip, military and aviation industries of the United States, triggering a strong reaction from Washington. Facing China's rare earth brand, Trump said: "China has a large number of Boeing aircraft, and these aircraft need spare parts supplies, but also many other related products." Threatening to cut off aircraft parts supplies to China.
Rare earths are the "vitamins" of modern high-tech industries and national defense industries, while large aircraft represent the peak of high-end manufacturing. China dominates rare earth processing, while the United States has a traditional advantage in aerospace manufacturing. In terms of rare earths, the United States relies on China's rare earth supply by more than 80%, and its processing dependence rate is close to 90-95%. Therefore, any disruption may have a shock to the US economy. Similarly, China's aviation industry is highly dependent on the US supply chain.
First, if the U.S. does, it will immediately affect the normal operation of China’s aviation industry.China’s existing 1855 Boeing aircraft require regular replacement of parts and maintenance, which are heavily dependent on U.S. suppliers.In the short term, Chinese airlines may face a shortage of repair accessories, which may affect fleet service rates.
For domestic large aircraft, the impact is equally huge. According to the latest analysis in 2025, there are currently 239 suppliers of COMAC's C919 large aircraft, including 104 from abroad (51 from the United States). In terms of key components, the LEAP-1C engine currently used in C919 is produced by CFM International, a joint venture between General Electric of the United States and Safran Group of France, and the cost of a single engine is as high as US $14 million. This key component accounts for as much as 31% of the whole machine cost. Avionics systems are also dominated by American companies. The components provided by Honeywell and Collins Aviation account for 15%-20% of the cost of C919 aircraft, and the core chips and control algorithms are in the hands of American companies. That's right, even the C919, which has a localization rate of 60%, still relies on American technology for the most important core system. This dependence structure also caused the United States to stop issuing export licenses in the middle of the year, which directly affected the production capacity of C919.
However, this confession in fact also hurt one thousand and eight hundred, first of all the accusation of normal trade as a means of political attack, of course, Trump estimates does not care about this. In what can be seen, first Boeing has become the "hostage" of China-US economic trade friction, in addition to 1855 Boeing aircraft in service, China Airways still holds at least 222 Boeing aircraft orders. Historically, China Airways had accounted for 25% of Boeing orders, but now this proportion has fallen to less than 5%. Moreover, Boeing is concerned about a potential big order, in August this year, Boeing is negotiating with China for the sale of up to 500 aircraft, if calculated by average sales price, this transaction amount may exceed $100 billion. If the United States really breaks the supply of Chinese parts, not only will
Of course, as with the sale of cars, the 4S store sells cars does not make money or even lose money, to earn is your maintenance fee, the aircraft is not bad. generally believed that the worldwide commercial aircraft 60% of the profit comes from after-sales and parts supply, which is also equivalent to breaking a large financial path of Boeing.
In addition, like what is happening in the chip field, the U.S. is also concerned that supply cuts will accelerate China's domestic replacement. To know, at the time of the C919 project, China began the development and development of the Yangtze-1000A engine simultaneously. The engine specifically tailored for the C919 has now made significant progress. It is that the drive of the Yangtze-1000A reached 13.7 tons (there are data and it has reached 14.5 tons in recent tests), even stronger than the existing LEAP-1C. Until the engine plant in Shanghai at the port forms initial production capacity, it can produce 50 to 80 engines annually to meet the demand of 30 C919s. The domestic IMA (comprehensive modular aerospace system) has also made technological break
In addition, seemingly inconspicuous but crucial components such as aviation hydraulic oil and lightning protection technology have also achieved breakthroughs in localization. It is reported that the localization rate target of C919 is moving from the current 60% to 80%. At the market level, the C919 has received orders for more than 1,500 aircraft, which not only provides market support for COMAC, but also buys time for supply chain transformation.
At the same time, Boeing's European competitor Airbus is encroaching on Boeing's China market. In recent years, it has opened parts production bases in China and even set up an assembly plant in Tianjin, which can produce about four A320 series aircraft per month. If Trump really cuts off the supply of aircraft parts to China, it will inevitably damage Boeing's share in China, and Airbus will laugh to death.