In late October, Trump visited Australia, but when the leaders of the two sides talked, they suddenly said: "We are expected to talk with the Chinese side about the Taiwan issue," this is not an affair, especially in the eye of the upcoming APEC summit, say, how many represent something.
Trump claims to have prepared for a visit to China, but this is not the first time he has said so, the last time he has said the same thing about visiting China, but the time has been pushed over and over and has not been set at all.
The attitude of the United States has quietly changed, and it is no longer completely suppressed
In recent years, China-U.S. relations have gone badly, especially trade and Taiwan issues, which have basically become two major obstacles, but from the signs of this year, the direction of the U.S. side seems to have some subtle changes.
Previously, when Trump came to power, it was necessary to "increase tariffs on Chinese goods", but now, whether it is the White House or the office of the trade representative, the words are more welcoming than before.
In the past, that kind of "non-black and white" "you pay me win" idea, has been replaced by a more realistic "how to do more advantageous to the domestic", after all, American enterprises will also live, the people will also buy cheap goods, it's really rough, it's not good for anyone.
Trump this time openly said that "I don't think China will move", and in the past American politicians always liked to provoke Chinese sovereignty and create an atmosphere of tension, but now it seems that Trump wants to take this matter in the direction of cold handling, why?
Because the United States also knows that our country does not allow anyone to interfere in our sovereignty, and any person or country that tries to interfere in China's sovereignty will be warned by our country.
In addition, Trump also mentioned "peaceful coexistence with China", because the United States understands more than anyone else, the hard clash with China does not necessarily win, but may drag themselves into a more complex situation, so they begin to "change words", no longer as strong, but to figure out the strategy, and give themselves a little space.
The Taiwan issue is not the negotiation code, but the bottom line of China.
The Taiwan issue must not be ambiguous. It is the bottom line that China cannot make concessions. No matter who wants to deal with China, this red line must be clear. China's position in this regard has become increasingly clear in recent years. Interference in China's sovereignty is prohibited and stated clearly without leaving room.
Looking at its actual actions over the years, we can also see that China is not just saying it in lip service. Military exercises, statements, and diplomatic responses are all constantly emphasizing a message: the Taiwan issue is not something to be bargained. Anyone who thinks this is just a "verbal warning" is a misjudgment of reality.
The United States, on the other hand, has repeatedly provoked China, but they also understand that the majority of the U.S. military does not want to fight for politicians, in recent years, the U.S. Congress has increasingly diversified its voices about Taiwan, no longer screaming back, and some lawmakers have begun to worry that this high-profile support may in turn drag the U.S. into unnecessary conflict.
The U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy" is now basically bankrupt, allied cooperation is limited, resources are decentralized, strategic goals are vague, it is easy to say hard about China, but it is really to implement in action, the cost is too high, especially in the face of China's increasing military strength and firm national stance, the United States must reevaluate its strategy.
So from the words of Trump, we can read a signal: the United States wants to reduce the temperature on this issue, at least in terms of language, no longer exacerbating the contradiction, leaving some room for further possible dialogue.
Visiting China is not just a symbol, but a specific abacus behind it
Trump said the "visit arrangements have been roughly settled", if he did not lie, if he did, it would be when he once again set foot on Chinese soil years after years, for him, it is not only a diplomatic visit, but also a break of the ice of China-US relations.
First, the domestic politics of the United States is becoming more and more chaotic, Trump needs to bring out a scoreboard to prove that he is not only capable, but also able to handle international affairs, especially during his tense relationship with the United States, and now he tries to show a "I can ease the relationship" image, is also adding points for himself.
China is still willing to dialogue and does not refuse to communicate. This open attitude has made it possible for China and the United States to resume exchanges. In the past few years, the dialogue mechanism has been interrupted, and both sides have suffered losses. Now, if we can rebuild the bridge, even if we just restore some basic connections, it can also serve as a buffer.
The significance of this visit is not just a symbolic "handshake photo", but may involve preliminary discussions of substantive issues, such as trade issues, tariffs, these are not small things, can be discussed or not, will affect the course of Sino-U.S. relations in the coming years.
The turning point in China-US relations is the key to "not wanting to talk"
In the past seven years, there have been frequent conflicts between China and the United States, constant friction, and the atmosphere was once very tense. But now, both sides seem to be a little "tired". Whether it is due to economic pressure or security considerations, each other is beginning to rethink: Is this continuous confrontation the best way?
China and the United States, these two great countries, there is competition between each other, there is also a need for cooperation, you can not expect to completely not come together, and it is not possible to argue with each other, especially in the context of the slow global economic recovery, regional instability, if China and the United States can still sit down and talk, that is something the whole world is welcome.
And on the U.S. side, if Trump really visits China, it also means that they are trying to find a new balance, no longer unilateral pressure, but rather trying to go back to the negotiating table, this shift, although not big, but not small.
If Trump really visits China at the end of the month, we are most concerned about "what results can we talk about?" but this visit, the outcome is not necessarily reflected in the "what agreements can be signed" and "what statements" can be seen in the outside world, more is reflected in the positioning of the two countries on future relations.
In terms of trade, the two sides may restart some cooperation mechanisms that were originally interrupted, such as tariff issues, technical exchanges, etc. Although it is unlikely to be fully resolved overnight, if some consensus can be reached, such as expanding the exemption list and resuming some scientific and technological cooperation, then It is already a big progress.
In addition, cooperation in non-sensitive areas such as climate and public health may also be the “low-focus outcome” of the visit, which is not enough to “catch the eye” but is a good grinder for building trust.
The real challenge is how to maintain this “softening” head.
Whether a visit can change what, the key is also to see how the follow-up goes, this time if Trump successfully visits China, may only be a start, the real test is whether the two sides can continue this opportunity.
The problems between China and the United States will not dissipate because of a meeting, whether it is trade, science and technology or Taiwan, are long-standing differences, but as long as the two sides have a sincere will and maintain the pace of communication, it is not time to slip into the abyss of confrontation.
For China, it must unswervingly adhere to its core interests, and at the same time be good at seizing opportunities to promote dialogue. For the United States, if it really wants to ease tensions, it must take some practical actions instead of just talking and not practicing.
Trump's possible visit to China this time is not a formality or a show. The relationship between major powers can't be maintained by anger, let alone by pressure to solve problems. The real wisdom is to stick to one's own position while leaving a little room for the other party to turn around.
No matter whether this trip can be made in the end or how deep the talk is, at least it shows one thing: there is still a desire to talk between China and the United States. As long as this "willingness to talk" momentum can be maintained, it is more important than anything else. How to go in the future depends on how to talk this time.