Less than two weeks after the first phase of the ceasefire agreement came into effect, the Gaza Strip has revived. Israel has launched multiple attacks on the grounds that "Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement." So why is this ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip so fragile? Can the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip return to their homes and receive humanitarian assistance as described in the agreement? Can the mediation of the United States really succeed?
Question 1: Why is the Gaza ceasefire agreement so fragile?
The ceasefire agreement is ambiguous, but both sides have reservations on the agreement.
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:This Gaza ceasefire agreement is obviously fragile. First, the content of the agreement is crude and vague, and there are no clear and powerful provisions on specific details such as how to initiate and carry out subsequent negotiations, which makes it easy for the two sides to have conflicts when implementing the agreement; second, in terms of nature, the agreement is a temporary ceasefire agreement based on the release of detained persons by both sides, which does not resolve key issues such as Hamas disarmament; third, Israel and Hamas have insufficient recognition of the ceasefire agreement, and neither side has personally gone to Egypt to sign the agreement. Moreover, Hamas still wants to regain control of Gaza, and Israel retains its goal of eliminating Hamas.
Question 2: Can the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip really return to their homes?
Despite the Israeli withdrawal to the so-called "yellow line" under the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli army still controls about 53% of the Gaza Strip, making Palestinians in these areas unable to return home. Moreover, there have been several Israeli incidents of killing Palestinians called "cross the yellow line". After the ceasefire came into effect, the amount of food and other aid supplies entered Gaza was still far below the actual demand. In addition, the Israeli government delayed the opening of a crucial port for humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip because Hamas failed to deliver the remains of all Israeli detainees on time.
Politizing humanitarian aid to weaken Hamas
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:In the past Palestinian conflict, Israel has politized humanitarian aid as an important tool to play with Hamas and suppress Hamas. In the past, after the two Gaza conflicts in 2014 and 2021, Gaza’s reconstruction process was extremely slow, mainly because Israel restricted reconstruction materials into Gaza.
Question 3: Can America’s mediation succeed?
The US continues to put pressure on Israel.
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:The subsequent mediation work of the United States faces extremely severe challenges. On the one hand, the second-phase ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have not yet started, let alone achieving results. Moreover, we have not seen the United States drawing up a specific, pragmatic and actionable roadmap for the second-phase ceasefire in Gaza. On the other hand, Israel still upholds the goal of eliminating Hamas and has a strong urge to restart the war in Gaza. Under such circumstances, the United States needs to exert strong pressure on Israel. However, given the United States 'traditional attitude of favoritism and sheltering Israel, there are still great doubts about whether it can effectively exert pressure on Israel.