On October 20, a link appeared on Trump’s desk that made him headache.
American business giants such as Oracle, Amazon, ExxonMobilStand forward in unison, The government is required to immediately suspend the implementation of the so-called "related party rule".
These bosses who usually call the wind and rain in Washington are really in a hurry this time.
This "related party rule" was originally an important tool used by the Trump administration to restrict American companies' cooperation with China, but now it has become a thorn in the side of the business community.
These companies have huge investments and complex supply chain networks in China, and the implementation of the new rules directly threatens their core interests.
Faced with the collective pressure of these gold owners' fathers, the Trump administration is obviously overwhelmed.
The situation in the agricultural sector is even more severe.
Trump recently announced that he would provide Argentina with a $20 billion currency exchange agreement, and that he would import more beef from Argentina.
You can hit the beetles. American beef farmers are completely blown up.
They have already suffered heavy losses due to tariff issues in the China market, and now Trump is introducing Argentine beef to take their jobs, which is simply worse.
Life is also difficult for soybean farmers.
Since the Sino-US trade war began, China, once the largest buyer, has basically disappeared. Brazilian soybeans now dominate the China market.
These peasants were Trump’s iron-bone supporters, but now they are victims of policy, where is the bitter water in their hearts?
Faced with huge domestic pressure, Trump tried to solve the problem through trade negotiations.
He offered China a seemingly tempting deal: Withdraw some tariffs on China in exchange for China's concessions on soybeans, rare earths and fentanyl.
The proposal should be attractive to Trump, after all, the question of tariffs has always been the focus of China’s attention.
Trump was surprised by China's reaction.
Beijing has been quite cold about the deal, and can even be said to be completely uninterested in it.
The reason is simple: After several years of adjustment, China is no longer so dependent on the American market.
In the case of soybeans, South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina have become China’s main suppliers.
In terms of rare earths, China itself is the world's largest producer and does not need to make concessions to the United States;
As for the Fentany’s problem, this is the US’s own social problem, and why is China paying for it?
Looking at the trade talks falling into a standstill, Trump began to play the Taiwan card.
He told the media, Plan to hold dialogue with China on the Taiwan issue at the upcoming APEC summit.
The news immediately attracted the attention of all parties.
In public speech, Trump mitigated the possibility of a conflict in the Taiwan Sea, claiming that mainland China had no intention of attacking Taiwan.
This statement is in sharp contrast to his previous tough gestures.
Many analysts believe that this is just Trump's A strategic performance aimed at threatening China to make concessions on trade issues in the name of “controlling the situation.”
This is done in the diplomatic sphere. It’s called “the empty card.”On the surface, it is about alleviating tensions, in fact, creating new codes.
Trump may feel that if he can be relatively moderate on the Taiwan Province issue, China will give him some face on the trade issue.
China’s reaction to this is quite calm.
Military experts pointed out, Even if Trump put pressure on the Taiwan issue, China’s military dominance in the Taiwan region has not changed.
Normalized cruises and military exercises by the Liberation Army in the region have formed a strong deterrent.
In this case, how effective Trump's Taiwan card can play is indeed a question mark.
Just as the outside world is still speculating on Trump's next move, He broke another piece of heavy news: he had accepted China's invitation to visit China and planned to visit Beijing in early 2026.
How did this visit plan come from?
Trump claims to have accepted the invitation. However, China has not publicly confirmed this statement.
Some analysts believe it could be a smoke bomb Trump fired to ease domestic pressure, or part of the two sides’ ongoing secret diplomatic contacts.
If this visit can really happen, it may be a life-saving straw for Trump to get out of his current predicament.
Trump really got himself involved this time.
Originally, I wanted to suppress China through tough measures, but I ended up in a dilemma.
The dual pressure from the domestic business and agricultural circles forced him to consider adjusting the direction of his China policy.
Not only did the trade war not make the United States "great again", but it cost many American and farmers a heavy price.
In this game, China has shown considerable strategic determination.
In the face of Trump's various tricks, Beijing has alwaysined the position of "talk, open the door; fight, go to the end".
China’s countermeasures at the economic level are also very targeted.
By adjusting the import structure and reducing its dependence on U.S. agricultural products, China has not only guaranteed its supply security, but also effectively countered U.S. trade pressures.
The current dissatisfaction of American farmers with Trump's policies is to some extent a reflection of this counter-effect.
If Trump can really visit China, China can turn this visit into an opportunity to show the country's development achievements.
Let the president of the United States look at China’s developments in his own eyes may be more convincing than any diplomatic statement.
In the final analysis, Economic interests are the fundamental driving force for political games.
When the cost of trade war exceeds the political gains, policy adjustment becomes an inevitable choice.
The dilemma Trump is facing now illustrates this simple and profound truth.
Source of information:
White House Press Conference Record – Trump’s Public Statements on Dialogue on Taiwan and Planned Visits to China at APEC Summit
U.S. Trade Representative’s Office – Specific provisions and timetables for implementation of the Rules of Associated Parties
·Joint Statement of the American Chamber of Commerce-Joint Letter dated October 20 from Oracle, Amazon, ExxonMobil and other companies
· USDA statistics-report on changes in soybean exports and impact on farmers' income since the Sino-US trade war
· Regular Press Conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Spokesperson's official response to Sino-US trade negotiations and high-level visit arrangements
U.S. Treasury Announcement – Official Statement Document on Argentina’s $20 Billion Exchange Agreement
·Official Announcement of the APEC Secretariat-Agenda Arrangements for the upcoming APEC Summit and List of Leaders of Participating Countries