The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than four years. This war not only changed the fate of Ukraine, but also profoundly affected the global geopolitical landscape.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken once proposed the "menu theory", intended to emphasize that in the international game, some countries can sit on the "table", while some countries become "menus" and become objects of manipulation.
Then, five countries, including North Korea and Pakistan, have already occupied a place on the international stage. Why is it always difficult for Russia to sit firmly at the "table"?
First, let’s look at which countries have become “menus”.
The EU is undoubtedly the most typical representative among them. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, Europe was deeply involved in an energy crisis. Natural gas prices soared and economic pressure increased sharply. It had to rely on the United States for energy supply.
At the same time, in military terms, Europe’s dependence on the United States has also been significantly deepened and even forced to accept the strategic arrangements of the United States.
Putin once satirized European leaders in a TV show in December 2023, saying that they looked like General Charles de Gaulle on the surface, but actually looked like "Marshal Pétain", satirizing that Europe's independence had been lost.
After losing in the conflict with Pakistan, India was not only militarily defeated, but also economically pressured by U.S. tariffs, severely affecting its international position.
In addition, the situation in Ukraine and Palestine is more obvious.
Ukraine has become a victim of the competition between great powers due to the war, suffering heavy economic and social losses, while Palestine has been in a passive position for a long time in the complex situation in the Middle East, and it is difficult to escape the fate of the "menu".
In contrast to these countries, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and North Korea have successfully entered the "table" in different ways.
Saudi Arabia is one of the most successful of these cases, and it has skillfully balanced relations with the United States, China and Russia through its unique “riding wall” strategy.
In the field of security, it relies on the United States, but in economic terms, it is deepening its cooperation with China; at the same time, Saudi Arabia is also working with Russia in OPEC+ to stabilize oil prices.
This series of operations by Saudi Arabia not only consolidated its leadership position in the Middle East, but also allowed it to occupy an important position on the global stage.
The success of Pakistan and North Korea comes from "promising" strategies.
By actively participating in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, North Korea has provided military support to Russia, gained international attention and reversed the previous negative image.
Pakistan, by virtue of its performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and its tough attitude towards Afghanistan, has successfully enhanced its position in the Middle East, become the "bodyguard" of Saudi Arabia and other countries, and gained more international voice.
In this international game, the two countries have always played the role of global chess players.
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is essentially an extension of the Chinese-American game.
Putin chose to go to war, largely because he believes that China-US contradictions cannot be reconciled and that Russia can use the gap to seek greater international influence.
However, different from the Cold War period, the game between China and the United States has a bottom line. Both sides try to avoid direct conflicts, but use proxy wars and economic means to influence the global landscape.
The United States is trying to weaken Europe and Russia through the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while China is maintaining stability in ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific region while attracting Middle Eastern countries to move closer.
This balance makes China and the United States always sit at the “table”, while other countries can only find their place in the game.
So, why is it difficult for Russia to sit firmly at the "dining table"?
Militarily, Russia faces a multilateral grip in Europe, the Middle East and the Far East, especially in Ukraine, which makes it difficult to concentrate.
Economically, Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in energy exports and put pressure on the domestic economy.
Geopolitically, the loss of Ukraine made it impossible for Russia to maintain its status as a Eurasian empire.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not only a military conflict, but also a reshuffle of global geopolitics.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and North Korea have successfully entered the “table” through different strategies, while countries such as the EU, India and others have fallen into the “menu” due to strategic mistakes or geographical difficulties.
China and the United States, as global chess players, dominate this game, while Russia is still unable to stabilize its international status due to multiple constraints.
In the future, the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not only determine the fate of Russia, but also profoundly affect the development of the global landscape.