Press Release South South South South
On October 21, Japan's self-government party chairman, Cao市早苗, won the first round of the election for the nomination of the prime minister of the provisional congress, if she wanted to be Japan's 104th prime minister, and also the first female prime minister in history. From October 10, the Communist Party suddenly announced its "breakdown" with the self-government party, Cao市 for successfully entering the prime minister's residence, may have made the whole number. Her most worried is that the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party and the Japanese Socialist Party, the three major opposition parties joined together, the People's Party's 196 seats in the House of Representatives clearly do not compete with the 210 seats of the three parties, she is likely to become the self-government party's
On October 20th, at the Japanese Parliament in Tokyo, Japan, sanae takaichi (right), president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, shook hands with Yoshimura Yoshimura, leader of the Reform Association, at a press conference. Xinhua News Agency
Why did Takashi "throw hydrangeas" to the Japan Reform Association?
The self-government party and the Socialist Party held talks with party leaders from October 15 until the signing of a cooperation agreement on October 20. This is the key to Gao's victory in the election for the nomination of the prime minister. The speed of the two parties' decision to jointly rule is remarkable, as if it were "blitz marriage".
Naturally, the one who took the initiative to throw the "hydrangea" was Gaoshi Zaomiao. She initially favored the National Democratic Party, but the party's leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, felt that after the collapse of the self-government alliance, even if the National Democratic Party joined forces with the Liberal Democratic Party, it could not reach the majority of seats necessary to control the House of Representatives. In addition, the Japan Federation of Trade Unions, a support group of the National Democratic Party, was strongly opposed, and he had to decline Takashi's "proposal."
After hitting a wall, Takaichi found the Japan Reform Association. The Reform Association has 35 seats and 20 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate respectively. Since the merger of the Reform Association, it is only 2 seats and 5 seats away from more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate respectively, which is obviously more suitable for alliance than the National Democratic Party. On the other hand, the Japan Reform Association has been losing its supporters in recent years. In the 2012 House of Representatives election, the newly published Japan Reform Association won 48 seats in one fell swoop, and the proportional representative district won 12.26 million votes, making it the "roof of the world" in politics after the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party. In the 2024 general election, the number of seats in the Japan Restoration Association dropped to 38, and the votes in the proportional representation district dropped sharply to 5.1 million. The Japanese Reform Association's consideration is that after joining the ruling coalition, it can not only reverse the decline, but also realize the "Vice Capital Concept of Osaka" that it has always advocated, which is conducive to the transformation from a local political party confined to a corner of Kansai to a national political party.
Japan Reform Association belongs to the right wing of the original opposition camp. It has a lot in common with the Liberal Democratic Party in the fields of constitutional amendment, security and energy policy, but there are also many contradictions and differences between them. Since October 16th, the Japan Reform Association and the Liberal Democratic Party have successively held policy consultations before the alliance at the levels of the Congressional Countermeasures Chairman, Secretary-General and Party leader. There are 12 requirements of the Japan Reform Association, the core of which are two: First, it is necessary to explicitly prohibit political donations from enterprises and groups; The second is to implement tax reduction, especially to zero the consumption tax on food within two years. As Takaichi said that it was unacceptable to prohibit political donations from corporate groups, the Japan Reform Association settled for the next best thing and made reducing the number of members of the House of Representatives by 10% the "absolute condition" for marriage with the Liberal Democratic Party. As a result of bargaining between the two sides, the Liberal Democratic Party agreed to write this requirement into the bipartisan policy agreement, and promised to promote it through relevant bills during the provisional parliament.
Regarding the way of alliance, the Japanese Socialist Party, represented by Yosemite Yosemite, originally insisted on "co-operation with the Cabinet", and may not give the two Cabinet members the position, the conditions are better than the common party. However, the Japanese Socialist Party was born only in the next decade, and it was difficult to find a candidate within the Party to be responsible for the ministers. On the other hand, it was not willing to be deeply bound with the Democratic Party, taking the "co-operation with the Cabinet" not occupying the cabinet's position can progress as well, at any time. The result of the negotiations between the two sides, the position of the Japanese Socialist Party's deputy ministers and officials is not necessary, but only to let the party's council
Will the self-sustaining alliance end like the "Narita divorce"?
Compared with the self-sustaining alliance that lasted for 26 years, there are three significant differences:
First, the Japanese Socialist Party is difficult to play the role of "stop brakes" like the Communist Party. Since its founding, the Communist Party hasined the so-called impartial middle conservative line, it has long advocated the "peace" "people's livelihood" philosophy. The Communist Party has two things to do more beautifully after its alliance with the Democratic Party: one is to prevent the Abe team from substantially initiating the constitutional reform process; the second is to engage in the government's economic policy to take care of the weak groups as much as possible, to pay attention to the content of the people's well-being, to the dangerous tendency to deviate from the path of peaceful development within the Communist Party, to play the "critical minority" role of the "brake".
Second, it is difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to get support from the support level of the Japan Reform Association in the election. In the past 26 years, the Komeito Party has relied on the support of the Soka Gakkai Society to win enough votes for the Self-Democratic Alliance in the election. On average, Soka Gakkai can mobilize more than 20,000 votes in each constituency. In contrast, the Japan Restoration Association lacks the support of grassroots organizations, and it is difficult for some Liberal Democratic Party candidates with weak electoral bases to expect to receive their votes. "Sankei Shimbun" calculates based on the results of the 2024 House of Representatives election that if it loses the Soka Gakkai vote, the Liberal Democratic Party will lose in 52 small electoral districts, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, will increase by 39 seats. The ratio of seats between the two parties will change from 196 to 148 to 144 to 187 seats. The Liberal Democratic Party will lose its status as the "boss" in politics.
Third, since the party itself has had enough inner injury and fatal weaknesses to shake the ruling coalition. In the presidential election with only 29 votes gap, High City defeated its opponent, Xiao Jinglong. Though she was elected to pledge the party's unity policy, but showed a blatant discouragement in the self-government party and cabinet staff arrangements. She allowed the president's former prime minister, Xiao Jinglong, to be re-elected as vice-president of the Democratic Party in the presidential election, so that Xiao Jinglong's wife, Suzhou Jinglong, became chairman, so that Xiao Jinglong will be chaired as chief executive officer. The cabinet will be the "second Xiao Jinglong" or "
Since the end of the last century, “Nada Divorce” has become a popular language in Japan. It refers to the fact that newlywed couples have had quarrels and quarrels during their honeymoon overseas, and that they immediately settle for divorce when they return to Tokyo’s Nada Airport. It reflects the severe reality of the rising divorce rate in Japan on one side. People can’t hesitate to ask: Will the “flash marriage” of the Japanese People’s Party and the Japanese Society end in “Nada Divorce”?
(Wu Jinan, consultant of Shanghai Japanese Society and researcher of Shanghai Institute of International Studies)