German credit insurance agency Allianz Trade released its latest report on the 21st local time, pointing out that due to the intensification of trade friction, tightening financing environment and external economic uncertainty,The number of global corporate bankruptcies is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026, up from previous forecasts by 3% and up for the fifth consecutive year.Among them, the number of bankruptcies of German companies is expected to remain at a high level, reaching approximately 24,500, a year-on-year increase of 1%, setting a record in nearly 12 years.

In particular, the report notes,A new round of high import tariffs recently imposed by the United States has impacted global trade and is one of the major reasons for the deterioration of the business environment.The U.S. has imposed tariffs on multinational goods since this spring, with an average effective tax rate expected to reach around 14 percent by the end of 2025.Analysis suggests that these tariffs have boosted operating costs in export-oriented economies, especially in countries such as Canada, France, Spain and the Netherlands, where the number of corporate bankruptcies could increase significantly.

The report noted that tariff policies had differentiated effects in different countries. The number of bankruptcies of protected U.S. indigenous manufacturing enterprises decreased, while exporters from other countries had to enter the U.S. market at higher prices or transfer through third countries to ease the tariff burden. This policy change further aggravated imbalances in the international trade pattern.

The report shows that the number of German corporate bankruptcies is expected to rise sharply by about 11% in 2025, reaching 24,300, an increase of about twice the global average. Looking forward to 2027, Germany is expected to usher in a phased easing of the corporate bankruptcy situation, and the number of related cases is expected to drop by about 4% to 23,500. Globally, the number of corporate bankruptcies is expected to decline by about 1%. (Headquarters reporter Ruan Jiawen)