Preliminary

After a meeting in Washington, U.S. President Trump once again shouted on social media the slogans that both sides should stop at their existing positions, which was not his first proposal to throw a freeze on the front.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has lasted for more than 1,300 days, is now at a stalemate and critical node. The Russian army relies on upgraded weapons and equipment to step by step press the Ukrainian army's struggling support on multiple fronts and the shadow of peaceful negotiations. It seems that it is still hidden. Behind the smoke on the battlefield.

However, we seem to see a glimmer of peace in this war. On October 20, Ukraine President Zelensky said at a press conference that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not end so quickly.

The situation in Ukraine is not unique in the world, its scale far outweighs other armed conflicts, but at the same time he said the preconditions for a genuine move toward peace have emerged recently.

Anyone who knows the Russia-Ukraine war knows that during Friday's battle, the Russian army dropped 268 guided aerial bombs in a single day. This number directly set a single-day record since the beginning of the war.

You must know that before this, the average number of bombs dropped by the Russian army was only 170 to 180 bombs per day. Behind the sudden surge in bomb dropped was the Russian army's eagerness to seize time.

The main reason why the Russian military is so urgent is that the winter is coming, for the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, the cold winter has always been a natural reducer of combat strength, the ground will become muddy and armored forces will be difficult to freeze, and logistics supply will face even greater difficulties.

The Russian army obviously wants to seize as many strategic positions as possible before the complete arrival of winter. As long as it can consolidate its positions before the arrival of winter, it will be able to take the absolute initiative when the war situation resumes next spring.

In order to achieve this goal, the Russian army not only bombarded indiscriminately during the day, but also did not idle at night to raid the entire territory of Ukraine day and night, especially focusing on energy infrastructure.

On average, more than 180 drones fly to Ukraine every night in September, more than twice as many as at the beginning of the year. Ukraine acknowledges that about 20% of the drones failed to stop, meaning many cities were bombed at night.

In the face of the trouble, Ukraine is also looking for a break-up, and they put their hopes on striking Russia’s energy facilities to get the Kremlin to sit down and negotiate in this way.

Despite failing to get the warhead missiles from the United States, Ukraine’s accelerated self-development cruise missiles from the beginning of the year to now have bombed 45 Russian fuel energy facilities industry analysts estimate, a fifth of the entire Russian refining capacity has been destroyed.

The two sides are currently in a strategic impasse.

Ukraine can’t destroy Russia’s war capabilities, Russia can’t defeat Ukraine militarily, and Trump’s proposal for a frozen front is ultimately just a will.

In addition to the tactical consideration of taking time, the Russian military can maintain the offensive on the battlefield, and more importantly, the technical upgrading of weapons equipment, especially the Su-34 combat bomber carried guided bombs, has completed three iterations that have completely changed the fire pattern of the battlefield.

But the Russian military soon found a way to deal with the increased surveillance of the patriots, and once the deployment tracks were found, the Iskander-M missile was used to precisely hit many Patriots systems.

On the other hand, accelerating the increase in the range of the bomb, the 130-kilometer range allowed the Su-34 to complete the launch without entering the range of the Patriots.

The situation in the field of electronic countermeasures here is also leaning towards the Russian army. Earlier, Ukraine was able to weaken the effectiveness of Russian guided bombs to a certain extent by interference and deception.

But Russia quickly upgraded its comet-M navigation and anti-interference package, making previous interference measures in Ukraine virtually invalid.

Just as the battlefield was inseparable, a series of statements made by Ukraine President Zelensky gave the outside world a glimmer of peace negotiations.

At a press conference on October 20, Zelensky made it clear that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not end so quickly. This situation is unique in the world and far exceeds other armed conflicts.

But he spoke at the same time, mentioning that the preconditions for truly moving toward peace in recent times have emerged, this statement made many people surprise after all, before this, either the situation on the battlefield or the expressions of both sides have passed through the intense smell of fire.

One of the reasons Zelensky dared to mention peace conditions was Ukraine’s firmness in the ceasefire.

He reiterated that Ukraine's position on the conditions of the armistice has never changed, and Ukraine firmly rejected Russia's demand for the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas region.

To fight for U.S. support, Zelensky visited Washington last week. He also specifically explained Ukraine's position to Trump and U.S. special envoy for the Middle East, Witkov.

Witkov also conveyed to him Russia's thoughts. Donetsk, Luhansk and other regions have joined Russia through a referendum and written into the Russian Constitution, saying that it is impossible for Russia to withdraw troops from these regions.

In response to Russia's reason, Zelensky gave a sharp rebuttal: "If the territorial ownership can be determined by writing it into the constitution, then Ukraine can also write two Russian states into the constitution, but Russia obviously will not Withdraw troops from there because of this."

These remarks pointed out the core differences between Russia and Uzbekistan on territorial issues. Russia believes that the referendum on Russia + the constitution provides a legal basis for territorial ownership, while Uzbekistan insists that territorial sovereignty is inviolable and any unilateral referendum is invalid.

Despite the huge differences, Zelensky showed considerable flexibility in the form and place of the negotiations.

Asked about the location of the U.S.-Russian leaders' talks, he made it clear that Budapest was not the best option but that he was willing to meet in any country for peace.

More importantly, regarding the form of negotiations at the leader level, Zelensky bluntly said that he agreed with any form, whether it was tripartite talks or shuttle diplomacy.

conclusion

This openness is in sharp contrast to the atmosphere in which the two sides had previously swept the sword, and also gives the outside world a little more hope for peace negotiations.

However, Zelensky's statement also revealed a pragmatic side. He knows very well that diplomatic negotiations alone cannot solve the problem. The situation on the battlefield is the biggest bargaining chip at the negotiating table.

Therefore, this is the most direct manifestation of the fact that Ukraine has not given up military countermeasures and self-developed cruise missiles to strike Russian energy facilities while releasing peace signals.

1. CCTV News,"Zelensky said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict" cannot end so soon ", but the preconditions for peace have emerged" 2025-10-20
What does it mean to throw 268 guided bombs in a single day Russian military firepower significantly upgraded 2025-10-18

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